January 21, 2008 at 18:41 #6351
In the Skybet Chase this Saturday, I think New Little Bric looks particularly interesting, particularly at 14s, as it was a short while ago.
I think it came into 12s with VC virtually as I watched it, and for some reason Stan James had suspended its betting, presumably on the race. It was the moral winner of the Jewson’s Novices Handicap Chase at Chelters, by two pounds on the basis of speed figures, beaten 12 lengths having given L’antartique 13lbs.
On the other hand, on the basis of the RPRs, it came out at 3lbs less than L’Antartique, though both were indicated as potential improvers. I think that’s the meaning of the plus signs.
Current RPRs make it 6lbs worse of than Opera Mundi, while, it’s set to receive 5lbs from it, so if it’s improved by a comparable amount, it would be at worst (RPR), 2lbs better off, and at best 7lbs better off (SF); and it apparently leaps like a stag.
I can’t see the price remaining in double figures…. but on the other hand, who knows if it will run?January 21, 2008 at 19:15 #136841carvillshillParticipant
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Any chance you’d put up the trends for this race Grimes- used to be quite trend-friendly if I remember rightly.January 21, 2008 at 20:12 #136853
That’s an interesting aspect to consider, Carvilleshill, though the only trends I can normally find are the RP ones. My thinking was simply based on the bookies’ AP favourite carrying 5lbs more. I’ll have a look though..January 21, 2008 at 20:32 #136860
Marb, I’m more influenced by the posted RPRs of the horses than their prices, but if the RPR of a horse is one of the highest in a race, its best speed figure is also very high, and its price looks very anomalous, I’ll be prepared to lose my stake, rather than lose the chance of what may (or may not) proved to be a very good bet in terms of value.
I noticed that New Little Bric had actually won a Grade I novices chase. I don’t think Grade I NH races are necessarily the equivalent of Group I races on the flat, which I understand to be virtually Classic level, but they must still be fairly top notch, I think.
Still, your point about NLB’s recent form may well account for the anomaly, as it often, unfortunately does. Nevertheless, as it doesn’t always, and I tend to favour optimism, I’ve put my bet on.
Whatever its chances in this race Lidjo De Rouge looks a real improver, doesn’t it? Worth watching out for.January 22, 2008 at 17:34 #137030
I also like the look of Royal Rosa at 20s. If he’s well enough advanced on his way back (assuming he runs), he’s very well handicapped.January 22, 2008 at 20:43 #137088carvillshillParticipant
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I like Bagan for this- see my thread.January 22, 2008 at 22:02 #137103
Will do, Carvillshill. I think he wasn’t a bad handicapper for Cecil on the flat, was he.
Incidentally, it occurred to me yesterday that putting a fiver on Twice Over for the 2000 on Betfair at 95/1 might not be a bad idea, particularly in the light of the words of Khaled Abdulla’s racing manager, that he might not stay the Derby distance. He apparently stays 10 f very well, and has a lot of speed.January 23, 2008 at 00:15 #137141
I’d forgotten how good Bagan had been over fences! I believe he’s now second or third favourite.
I kind of fancy An Accordion, too, on the basis of potential, but Bagan seems a more seasoned fencer for a race like this. I might make him my third string. But I’ll probably put the mockers on it.
Simon in the Cotswold looks very interesting, imo. A terrific improver if his last race is any guide.January 25, 2008 at 17:27 #137695clivexMember
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Yardbird for me. Decent price too
i like somewhat more experienced types in this type of race and with the blinkers hes running better than ever. Won quite easily at Kempton
See main forum for moreJanuary 25, 2008 at 19:44 #137715DannyMember
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I’ve gone for Juveigner Each Way hes an old favourite of mine, he has a big weight but i still think he could sneak a place 20s looks good value imoJanuary 25, 2008 at 20:55 #137720Grey DesireParticipant
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If it’s any consolation Marb I’m quite keen on Lidjo also.January 25, 2008 at 22:19 #137733
Marb, I see your Lidjo de Rouge is napped by Lawrence Taylor the speed-rater for AtTheRaces, who claims to have a good record with his naps.
Also, Clivex, I saw they were betting on Yardbird the other day and looked up its form, and it reads well in relation to Alderburn. He seemed a tough and determined finisher too. So… the race gets more and more interesting – in the sense that the Chinese apparently use the word, when they say it is a terrible thing to live in interesting times!January 26, 2008 at 00:37 #137791Grey DesireParticipant
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Nah just backed it this evening at 25’s.
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