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Scottish Open Golf

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  • #4598
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    This is a difficult one! The question you have to ask yourself is which golfers will be busting a gut to win this event, and which are using it as a final warm up before next weeks Open.

    The brilliant Phil Mickelson almost certainly falls into the latter of the two categories in my opinion and must be swerved, especially after his recent wrist injury and his poor showing at both the US Open and the AT & T last week, where he missed the cut on both occassions.

    Ernie Els is the favourite and has some great course form to his name at the picturesque Loch Lomond, but his lack of a win in the last year is very worrying for a guy who used to find winning very easy. He was very bullish on his chances the last time he tee’d it up in the BMW International, but after an encouraging first round, the Big Easy was never in contention, indicating that even Ernie himself doesn’t know how irratic his form is.

    I was thinking of selecting Retief Goosen, who is a previous winner around this course, but his recent form suggests he should be in the region of at least 50/1, so the best price of 22/1 on offer makes no appeal whatsoever. Sergio Garcia is another who is best priced at 22/1, and this likeable Spaniard is one of the most gifted golfers of recent times. However, he always goes through a bad spell during a tournament where he can, and usually does, fall out of contention. He is brilliant at times and is well capable of shooting low numbers, but I just can’t ignore that in almost all his recent tournaments he has had a 6 or 7 hole spell where he is likely to shoot 3 or 4 over par.

    I feel that US Open Champion Angel Cabrera is still in cloud nine and his mind is not quite on the job yet. He almost certainly falls into the category of using this event as a prep for next week, and cannot be backed to win this week. The likes of ‘prominent in the betting’ golfers such as Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Trevor Immelman, Richard Greene, MA Jimenez and Tom Lehman are all very capable of showing up well this week, and all have played well here previously, but they are all, in my opinion, golfers who will have to be at the very top of their game to win this week and recent results don’t show this to be the case.

    Of the golfers I fancy to go well this week, ‘posh’ boy Luke Donald is a strong fancy at a best price of 16/1. He is a very consistent performer and his only 2 visits here are very encouraging, finishing 5th and 2nd. He hasn’t been seen since the US Open and a few weeks rest will hopefully have freshened him up. I have watched Donald closely over the last 6 months and there is absolutely nothing wrong with his game, other than the putts just aren’t falling for him. Whereas a Colin Montgomorie, in the middle of the fairway with a wedge to the green, you would fancy Monty to knock it stiff, but Donald doesn’t seem to have the same quality as a Monty and will often leave himself a 20 footer. If Luke Donald can start knocking his irons closer to the hole and/or start rolling in a few longish putts, he will be very tough to beat this week.

    The previously mentioned Monty is playing brilliant at the moment and silenced the critics who said he would never win again, by winning the European Open last week. His long game looks to be in great shape with Monty admitting himself that he knows exactly where the ball is going. As always with Monty, it all depends whether he can hole a few putts and ‘stay in the moment’. However, Monty’s long game is so good at the moment that a short missed putt need not necessarily mean the end of his chances as he knows another opportunity will probably come at the next green. At a best priced 25/1 and in front of his home crowd, Monty must be backed until his game goes off the boil again.

    Thomas Bjorn is another golfer steadily playing his way back to form and he has had some encouraging results in recent weeks. At his best, Bjorn can mix it with anyone on a golf course and a good 72 holes could just be round the corner for this talented Dane. He has been put up by the knowledgable Jeremy Chapman in the Racing Post, who selects him at a best priced 40/1, though people have obviously taken note as I can see now that his best price is down to 33/1 which is still not a bad each way price.

    Of the long shots, a very talented player called Jyoti Randhawa is playing well enough to have a say this week, as too is a clust of Scandanavian players, namely, Anders Hansen, Soren Hansen, Peter Hanson and Peter Hedblom. Young German Maartin Kaymer is a talented player who will rise through the ranks and could win at any time, while Graham Storm and Thomas Levet (a past champion here) are playing well enough to be once again in the thick of things. Anders Romero finished runner up in this event last year and has been the subject of good support this week. He had a hole in one at the K Club last Thursday and finished the tournament very strongly. If you believe in horses for courses then he might be a decent each way bet.

    My final mention to a golfer, and someone who I will be backing, is the talented David Howell. This time last year he would have been best priced 16/1 for this event, but because of his recent lay off due to a back injury, he is very un-raced. Last week was his first tournament in a long time and he still showed enough class in his 4 rounds to suggest he is almost back to his best. This week might come a little too soon for him, though I can’t ignore his best price of 66/1. He is definitely a player to keep on the right side of over the next few months if showing no ill effects from that back injury.

    Selections

    Luke Donald @ 16/1
    Colin Montgomorie @ 25/1
    Thomas Bjorn @ 33/1
    David Howell @ 66/1

    Remember to shop around when you are having a golf bet. A lot of companies will offer you a quarter the odds for the first 5 (or even sometimes 6) places if your backing each way. You can normally get a bigger price on the exchances than you can with the bookmakers so take a look there. If laying is your game, then you can always back a golfer at big odds, and if he shows up well and his odds retract significantly, then you can lay him off, guaranteeing you a win win situation.

    My final recommendation for golf betting is don’t despair if your selections are not in contention. The beauty of golf betting is you can always place a bet on the morning of the 3rd and 4th rounds, ensuring you have an interest in the event ahead. Colin Montgomerie was a best priced 14/1 to win last week at 12 noon on the day of the final round. It just goes to show that there is value there at any point during the tournament.

    Good luck with all your bets this week.

    Mike

    #107336
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    An excellent write up Mike. You make J.Chapman look like an amateur :wink: I enjoyed reading it and look forward to reading more of your posts on our shared sporting interests.

    I posted my selections on another section so I’ll copy it below –

    I’ve always considered Loch Lomond to be a fair neat course which suits players like Donald, Immelman, Garcia and Olazabal. It won’t punish players too much if they don’t strike the ball that accurately. GIR and good putting could be the key to wnning. Goosen may do well.

    I’ve decided to bet on Donald as he’s got a good record here even though his recent form is nothing special. My main bet will be on Jimenez who played well in Austria recently and also at Wentworth. He’s finished in the top ten during his last couple of visits to Loch Lomond and can be a very good player when he gets his putting right. I’ll also bet on Immelman who has the game to win this but is recovering from a virus that he caught at the Masters. I’ll go for J M SIngh as well as he must be due to play well in a tournament soon.

    In the low profile John Deere on the pga circuit, I’ve bet on Kim and Snedeker who are both young rookies who have played well this season and this tournament is sometimes won by promising young golfers. I’ll also bet on Glover as he’s improved lately.

    #107339
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Cheers for the compliments SC.

    I couldn’t agree more with your selections as I mentioned them all apart from JM Singh, and your right about him, if he shows his best he can win. You mentioned Jimenez and Immelman and like I say, they both have the class to win. I just feel that Jiminez is just below his best at the moment, and Immelman might be more focussed on just getting in 4 rounds as he has been off for a while and missed the cut last week. I mentioned Donald as my main selection so were are in the same boat there.

    Although I have a bet on the PGA Tour, I don’t really get that involved unless it’s a big event like the PLayers or a World Championship event. I agree that Glover is starting to play well and I will be backing him also. I was very impressed with his game when he was in top form last year. A reproduction of that form will see him go well this week.

    Good luck SC, and watch out for my comprehensive ‘Open’ write up next week lol.

    Mike

    #107624
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6939

    Good start for one you’ve already mentioned, Mike, with Graeme Storm disputing the lead after day one.

    Apparently his time spent working in a cream cake factory for not much over £100 a week earlier this spring, and his wish not to have to do that again any time soon, have been the stimulus for this upturn in form and fortunes.

    I can think of a few Premiership showponies who could use a similar reality check. No names, no pack drill, but one of them rhymes with B.O-Smoker.

    Jeremy
    (graysonscolumn)

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #107693
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Good start for one you’ve already mentioned, Mike, with Graeme Storm disputing the lead after day one.

    Apparently his time spent working in a cream cake factory for not much over £100 a week earlier this spring, and his wish not to have to do that again any time soon, have been the stimulus for this upturn in form and fortunes.

    I can think of a few Premiership showponies who could use a similar reality check. No names, no pack drill, but one of them rhymes with B.O-Smoker.

    Jeremy
    (graysonscolumn)

    I gave a few positive mentions to a few who are doing really well – but unfortunately the 4 I put up as selections are not doing too well at all :cry: . Lets hope Luke Donald has a good afternoon.

    I worked at the same company as Graeme Storm, though he worked in the Hartlepool Factory and I worked in the Stockton Factory. I did meet him once at a ‘get together’, though this was a few years before he took up golf professionally. The company, if anyone is interested, used to be called ‘Sweet N Savoury’, then switched to Hibernia Foods Ltd – but even that was 2 years ago and it could be named anything now as I haven’t worked there for those last 2 years.

    Mike

    #107718
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    My usual standard of performance on the Euro tour has continued in the Scottish Open and it looks like 3 of my 4 selections are going to miss the cut.

    Nobody likes an aftertimer so I’ve come on here to state that I’ve backed Garcia in play at odds of 25/1. Sergio is one of my favorite players and played good golf today to make a 65. If he remains within 5 or 6 shots of the leader at the end of the 2nd day then he has the game to go close imo and I previously stated that this course suits his style of play.

    #107728
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Nobody likes an aftertimer so I’ve come on here to state that I’ve backed Garcia in play at odds of 25/1. Sergio is one of my favorite players and played good golf today to make a 65. If he remains within 5 or 6 shots of the leader at the end of the 2nd day then he has the game to go close imo and I previously stated that this course suits his style of play.

    I’m a fan of Sergio’s also, and a 65 is always a good omen, but I don’t back him anywhere near as much any more as the only courses that suit his game nowadays are ones without any greens!

    I’m going to be a reverse after-timer. I actually didn’t back Andres Romero, despite going on about him earlier in the week, and he’s now laughing at me as he sits T2 :( (for the record, I didn’t have a bet at all). Still a long way to go, but if he finishes top 5 I’ll be gutted.

    #107735
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Poor Friggo :cry:

    Very good shout on Anders Romero. Whether he finishes it off or not, he has justified your selection, just a shame you didn’t back him.

    I can’t believe how poorly Monty played today. After 2 weeks of immaculate golf his head must scrambled now ahead of the Open. I hope 1 over makes the cut so that he can play the weekend and hopefully get back on track, otherwise I fear if he goes to Carnoustie on the back of this round today he could well struggle.

    Like I said in my original assessment, I never despair if my selections flop after 2 rounds as you can always go on a recovery mission before rounds 3 and 4 – it’s if that goes wrong that you are then in trouble :cry:

    Mike

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