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Twas the Illustrious Sporting Life who haven’t changed his rating which isn’t unusual for them
No matter he still appears to have a decent racing weight.George Chalton is more of a trader than he is a trainer. Jonjo has bought a few of him as have many other big trainers. I seem to remember Jonjo trying to buy KB for JP a few years ago but he wasn’t for sale. That’s probably the reason he doesn’t have many winners because if they are any good they are gone to his contacts.
I’ve actually had Knocara Beau in mind or a long distance chase sine the day he ran 2nd to Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle. I think he’ll outstay most of these and the softer the better..Min you the race has seen some funny results in it’s time, like when Astral Charmer trained by Harry Bell and ridden by young John Goulding ran away with him and never stopped
so expect anything.Best of luck to you to.
lie forrit out due to the cough bug going around stables, and he coughing this mornng
vf
lie forrit out due to the cough bug going around stables, and he coughing this mornng
vf
Absolutely gutted, the trainer said the ground had come just right and thought he was well handicapped….everything looked good until he started coughing this morning.
Not a lot more I can say……I need a hug
Well no point in crying over spilt milk I suppose, Lie Forrit is out so lets see if I can rejig this a little.
I do like Portrait King, he will definitely get the trip and has looked a good horse in his last two races. The only thing that worries me is that prior to his win at Punchestown in February, you have to go back over 2 years to find his last win. He then went on and, as Hurdygurdyman pointed out, he won the Eider very well and looked an improving horse winning those races. What concerns me is that he won his Punchestown race off 113, and since his Eider win he runs off 140. A rise of 27lbs in two months is a lot to carry, I just wonder if is up to it. If he is still improving he may well be, but I’m not convinced.
I had liked Harry the Viking, one thing that put me off was that I did not think Junior would run and therefore the weights would go up by 9lbs. However, he is still in there and that means HTV runs off 10st 11, instead of the 11st 6lbs I was anticipating. He has gone up 6lbs for his good running on second in the Amateurs NH race at the festival. This will be the first time Ruby has ridden him, and that has to be worth 6lbs in my book.
I know it’s not very original, I’m not normally a favourites man, but I can’t get away from him being the most solid looking bet after LIE Forrit’s defection. I’m inclined to take the 6-1 on offer, I don’t think it will be a drifter on the day.
VTC…passing the buck for Hurdygurdyman to give me a hug in my hour of need…..shame on you
The horses I like at the prices are:
Harry The Viking
: I backed him at Cheltenham. Did best of those held up in National Hunt chase (4m), jumping well in a big field. This novice must have more improvement in him.
Merigo
: You’d think an 11 year old’s form is exposed. But form figures at 4m+ read 112. The "2" in this race last season (won it in 2010) where he put up a tonne of overweight. Small stable in fine form, as they usually are at this time of year.
Portrait King
: Improving Eider winner (when held up). Can race more prominently, if doing so has a chance.
Galaxy Rock
: Ran over hurdles last time (fair third). Looked a progressive stayer earlier in the year. AP has a good record on him and takes the ride.
Fruity O’Rooney
: Front running suits this race in recent years. Ran a great race in the Spinal Research Handicap at Cheltenham. Only one passing him. Runs as if will stay further, whether that’ll be 4m1f is open to question. Probably worth finding out at the price.
I’ve backed Harry, Merigo and Galaxy so far, will probably back Fruity, possibly with a saver on Portrait.
Value Is EverythingAt least Lie Forritt should have a decent weight in the Welsh National now. Let’s hope they have a decent winter oop north.
All over Portrait King for this one. O’Regan still on the bridle at the last.
Good luck all!
This is a very strong ‘trends’ race which if you follow this season takes out the first 3 or 4 in the betting!
For instance Portrait King/HTV are too young rather annoyingly as i like Portrait King.
Merigo on the other hand is too old although if the ground deteriorates i always go for the older horses!
Horses must have won at least as far as 3m over chases and won a Cl 1 or class 2 race!
Taking all the above into consideration I have (as previously stated) backed
I will cover the above with a RFC on the day with Merigo and Portrait King.Be lucky all who play
This is a very strong ‘trends’ race which if you follow this season takes out the first 3 or 4 in the betting!
For instance Portrait King/HTV are too young rather annoyingly as i like Portrait King.
Merigo on the other hand is too old although if the ground deteriorates i always go for the older horses!
Horses must have won at least as far as 3m over chases and won a Cl 1 or class 2 race!
Taking all the above into consideration I have (as previously stated) backed
I will cover the above with a RFC on the day with Merigo and Portrait King.Be lucky all who play
I can’t fault you on the trends assessment GDC, since 2000 the 8-10 age group have dominated. Only twice has the winner come from outwith that group…Gingembre (7yrs) in 2001 and Hello Bud (11yrs) in 2009. In the 90s, four out of the ten winners came from outside the 8-10 group, although I accept that as a trend it’s hardly current.
It probably takes something that’s pretty decent to win outwith that group, I had originally gone for Lie Forrit (8yrs) and I fancied him a lot, but the cough has done for him. Henry the Viking certainly comes in the unexposed bracket, he has only had 6 races, finished 2nd in his first race, won the next four, and a very good second at the festival. It’s the festival race that swayed me that he may be better than your average horse for the Scottish. It’s not often you see a horse running on again at the end of 4 miles and yet that is what he did. I thought the front 2 had got away, but he was pegging them back all the way to the line grabbing second place on the line. He managed to do that with an amateur on his back, so with Ruby I’m pretty sure he can get a bit extra out of him. I hope he can buck the age trend, or at least my wallet does.
I’m also having a couple of quid e/w on Mac Aeda. Malcolm Jefferson had a great festival, and poor Ritchie McLernon deserves a break after his National heartbreak. Maybe the racing gods will take pity om him…..or have I read too many fairy stories. Either way, that’s my two against the field.
I’m off for the weekend now…..hope to hear some of us had a good Saturday at Ayr when I get back.
Best of luck.
Portrait King and Ikorodu Road are my selections with a small saver on Auroras Encore.
I go three against field:
KNOCKARA BEAU – could prove a bit of class in this race. He’s a sort for which the trip should suit him nicely and he regularly gives his best.
MERIGO – A spring horse and aimed at this race once again.
ABBEYBRANEY – George Bewley aimed this one for the Grand National and should have been able to keep him on the boil after missing the Aintree cut. Ran a cracker in the Premier Chase at Kelso, not over-race this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s bang there at a big price.
Rob
Wonderful Merigo – lump in the throat time for me. Think I just woke the neighbourhood up cheering him home
Using the trends on another site which will not be mentioned here, I have narrowed it down to just three horses – Knockara Beau, Aurora’s Encore and King Fontaine.
I am getting ready to be proved hideously wrong, but I will, as ever, give it a go.
Hope u backed the 2 each way!! Crackin trends!! Very unlucky.
DaveWonderful Merigo – lump in the throat time for me. Think I just woke the neighbourhood up cheering him home
Ditto! What a thrill, and what a brave, gutsy performance.
Great performance by the winner and great finish. Shane Timmy got done 4 days for using the whip above height
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