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It’s difficult trying to work out a winner for this one, not least because so many of those
entered ran in The National, or ran at Aintree, and would be doubtful to head north. The other
problem is that the weights are likely to be turned on their head, and as only one winner in
the past 10 years has carried more than 11st (Godsmejudge in 2013) then it’s crucial to try and
work out the likely weight carried. The topweight, understandably, is MANY CLOUDS, who most
certainly won’t head up. Of those at the top end, I doubt that MC or The Last Samuri will
trap, so SAUSALITO SUNRISE could be topweight, which will raise the field 7lbs.CAUSE OF CAUSES due to carry 11-1 at the moment, so probably have to carry at least 11-8.
Nonetheless he is a seriously good horse, having won the Kim Muir at a canter. He would be running off
a career high mark of 155. Any conditions would suit and if he does show up he can’t be ruled out.O’FAOLAINS BOY would be of interest, but having been lame before the National, he would
be very unlikely to make it.SOUTHFIELD THEATRE who’s 2nd behind Don Poli in the RSA last year, would give him every
chance. His first 2 runs back this season were disappointing, but in the Ultima at The Festival he was
making ground when he was brought down. That was midway through the race so it was too early to say
how he would have finished, but if getting back to his RSA form he also can’t be ruled out.One I’m very keen on is Stuart Crawford’s FINE RIGHTLY He’s won 3 times at the course
and ran an eye catching race in a decent H’cap at Leopardstown in January, finishing 4th behind Empire
Of Dirt and Killer Crow, giving them 21 & 17lbs. He kept his form well in February in the Irish gold
Cup at Leopardstown, finishing 3rd behind Carlingford Loch and Road to Riches. He went on to win his
last 2 races at Down Royal and Cork, winning easily by 7 and 10 lengths. If he comes over he has a
serious chance, although he wants it soft, which at present it is.SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT won at Cheltenham in January beating none other than BLACKLION (getting 3lbs)
He was subsequently beaten by that one in the RSA, but he did clout a couple which probably
didn’t do his his chances a lot of good, where he weakened and was headed 3 out. Sandy Thomson
thinks a great deal of this horse and he should be right for this. He is not ground dependent.Had MAGIO not run just a week ago, I would be very keen on his chances off an
allocated 10-5. Understandably he has been bet down to 16/1 after his win at Aintree, but this could
come too soon and I’m not convinced he will line up.Dr Ricard Newlands ROYAL KNIGHT looks a decent marathon race specialist. He won the
Durham National, over 3m 5f, at Sedgefield in October, before running in 2 hurdle races in February,
finishing 2nd & 5th. I think this has been the plan for a while. He’s got 10-2, and needs many to drop
out at 47th, but I’m pretty sure plenty will. At 20/1 he is very worthy of a punt.MOUNTAINOUS is entered, but unless there is a deluge I doubt he will make the trip and the
forecast doesn’t suggest there will be. If it were to come up like a bog, he would become very
interesting.EMPEROR’S CHOICE, off a featherweight of 10-1 is another who needs it soft at least. His
win in the Welsh National in 2014 would give him every chance. He had a lay off before coming back
out in a h’cap chase at Haydock in November, where he won well. If that was to get him right for
another crack at the Welsh National, it didn’t work as he was disappointing and eventually pulled
up.NOBLE ENDEAVOR is another who is low in the weights, 10-1, and this Gordon Elliot horse
has some decent form and his recent run in the National Hunt Chase at The Festival was promising.
He was well in contention at the 2nd last when he fell. He may have been tiring, but if he has
recovered fully from that, and if he gets in, he looks like a likely winner. Best priced 16/1 won’t
be his price on the day if he gets there.Paul Nicholls would have a shout with VICENTE, who was 5th in the same race as Noble Endeavour
at Cheltenham and previously 4th behind BLACKLION at Cheltenham in December, giving him 8lbs.It’s always a cracking race, and one that often throws up a big priced winner. My three against the
field at this time are NOBLE ENDEAVOR 16/1, ROYAL KNIGHT 20/1 and
FINE RIGHTLY 25/1Best of luck to all
Also like Fine Rightly. Does he definitely need it soft? Although cannot rule Royale Knight out (if he gets a run), judging by that Big G. It looks like he’s been laid out for the race. A Doctor special perhaps
Not to say Fine Rightly won’t handle better ground Homer, but 16 of his 18 runs have been on soft
or heavy and all his 9 wins come on that surface.I agree with you about Royal Knight, I think this has been the plan. Keep it under
your hat
As expected, Many Clouds and The Last Samurai will be staying in their beds, which leaves
Sausalito Sunrise, at this time, top weight. The previous weights mentioned were raised by
7lbs. If for some reason Philip Hobbs doesn’t send him, Cause Of Causes would carry top weight.
Good horse that he is, top weights rarely win this race. The only one that has this century was
the great GREY ABBEY in 2004, who might not have won but for GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL, carrying 10st,
departing when challenging at the last, the pair a distance clear.Gordon Elliot is no longer sending NOBLE ENDEAVOR over, just as well I hadn’t parted with any cash
for him yet. FINE RIGHTLY now carrying 11-4 makes it more difficult, but ROYAL KNIGHT on 10-9 looks
just about perfect. He is getting my dosh at 20/1.Great write up G !!
the two I am particularly interested in are Vicente and Gold Futures.
Vicente ran well without having the greatest of runs at Cheltenham in the four miler and with a clear passage I think it would have been placed and Nicholls is going to target this race to try and get a few quid back on Willie.
Gold Futures looks a prospect to me. Only ran eight times over fences and been at least placed five times and one of the unplaced was against Many Clouds. Looks a lightly raced well placed improver !!
P>S> You forgot Berger again!!
Good stuff G
I think Royale Knight & Fine Rightly have decent shouts, they shouldn’t be far way.
My long term fancy for this has been the Alan King trained Sego Success, and I’d still give him a chance on his Doncaster win earlier in the season, but there’s one or 2 jumped ahead of him now, not least his stablemate Midnight Prayer. Very fragile sort, but decent on his day, as when he won over 4 Miles at The Festival. He had a decent comeback at Newbury, before a last fence blunder arguably stopped him pegging Russe Blanc back in the Classic Chase at Warwick. Entitled to be bottomed for his win in desperate conditions at Exeter, but he showed no ill effects when running solid race behind Cause of Causes in The Kim Muir, and he looks big at 28’s. I’ve a few quid on him on Betfair up to 40’s, and very happy with that.
Cause of Causes, not surprisingly, is market leader for this, and he deserves to be, following his Cheltenham romp. I think he’s good enough to take this, even with the hike in the weights, but I’ll be happy to leave him here. He’s a horse who’s campaign is clearly geared round Aintree and Cheltenham. As big a race as this is, it’s not their MO, and even if he did run, it would surely be for nothing else, other than to shave a couple of pounds off. I’d imagine he’ll only run if Elliot has others running at Ayr.
I have parted with some cash though, and that’s on the Pipe pair, Amigo, and Top Wood. Amigo ran a blinder in this last year, only running out of gas close home. If they can keep a bit in hand, then I can see him going very close. He looked in good form in The Kim Muir, and under his amateur rider, he was maybe kicked for home too soon. Very keen on him, and took 25’s ew, and up to 38’s on Betfair. Top Wood also ran in The Kim Muir, and he was looking menacing when falling at the top of the hill. That was off the back of a win a couple of weeks earlier, and he can easily be excused a hurdles defeat in testing going at Kelso. If that race hasn’t left it’s mark, then I’d expect a big run. I’ve a few quid on 20’s to 25’s each way.
I was very interested in the 2014 Winner Al Co as well, but he had a hard slog on Saturday, and I’d be a bit surprised if the trainer, Peter Bowen, turned him out again so soon. Bowen’s no mug, when it comes to having runners here, and if Al Co makes the trip, I’ll take note.
Gigginstown, going for a 3 timer in The Nationals, have a rock solid second favourite in Measureofmydreams, but tucked away at 50’s is last years Irish National winner, Thunder and Roses, and that’s a big price. No surprise to see them land this marathon as well.
I’d love Seeyouatmidnight to run a big race, and it would be great to see him and Cause of Causes, my 2 favourite horses in training, go head to head, but I just worry about his stamina. I’ve no idea where he’ll get the extra stamina from, as all evidence so far points to him being a complete non stayer. I hope I’m wrong, as he’ll have a good few quid of mine on him, and I’d scream the house down if he did it. Time will tell.
Plenty more to chew over, but I’ll wait until the Final Decs now.
Amigo is very much my #1 hope, and happy with Midnight Prayer & Top wood to support him.
Cheers Raymo, VICENTE is definitely one with a shout. Paul Nicholls must be getting
desperate now in the head to head with Willie Mullins, he’s sure to have him bang on.Thanks Bobby, both your fancies MIDNIGHT PRAYER and TOP WOOD are on decent weights too
at 10-8 and 10-11, I think that’s going to be crucial here. Here’s hoping you can have the
same result in this as you had in The NationalI’d love Seeyouatmidnight to run a big race, and it would be great to see him and Cause of Causes, my 2 favourite horses in training, go head to head, but I just can’t have SYAM for this. I’ve no idea where he’ll get the extra stamina from, as all evidence so far points to him being a complete non stayer. I hope I’m wrong, as he’ll have a few quid of mine on him, and I’d scream the house down if he did it. Time will tell.
Interesting observation about Seeyouatmidnight there Bob,I had it in my head he was the Class horse in the race who would excel at 4m.I’ll end up on a Gigginstown horse myself but not sure which.Good luck anyway.
Cheers Gord. I very much hope you’re right, and I’d be delighted to be wrong, cause I can’t possibly allow him to run in this and win, without giving me a bumper payout, so I’ll certainly be cheering him on. I just feel that the 3 miles just stretches him, and that’s certainly been the case a few times, I was desperate for him to go JLT, rather than RSA. I’ll be keeping everything crossed.
I’ll have to shout something else on anyway, to go with Midnight Prayer, as Amigo’s not going, and the market says Top Wood doesn’t go either.
Good luck with your Giggs horse, I hope it’s Thunder and Roses, if he’s declared, I’ll be having a proper go
Well it looks like both are mine are going to turn up but I have been tempted by my old mate Highland Lodge at 20/1 and Milborough at 33/1.
Milborough is only three pound higher than its Eider win and Highland Lodge looks like he has been saved for this after his Becher Chase win.
That is only four I have backed in this!!!
Highland Lodge looks like he has been saved for this after his Becher Chase win.
He was saved for the Grand National but didn’t get in.
Masters Hill is a horse i just can’t leave alone and i’d like his chances from an EW perspective off his current mark…
Might take a chance on Golden Chieftain, provided the ground stays no better than soft.
And Tour Des Champs is another i just can’t stand leaving alone. He’s developing into quite a consistent type and with Ryan Hatch taking 3 pounds off i’d be very confident of a bold show from a horse who’s finished fourth in this in the past.
I’d have been all over Golden Chieftain if it wasn’t for Powell Jr deserting him for Royale Knight – who has no chance – and the replacement jock is fecking useless.
If the ground improves (unlikely) I’ll be on A Good Skin who’s trainer is in cracking form and the horse is 3/3 in April, showing improvement each year at spring time.
If the ground stays soft then Milansbar has very few doubts so would be my choice.
I’d have been all over Golden Chieftain if it wasn’t for Powell Jr deserting him for Royale Knight – who has no chance – and the replacement jock is fecking useless.
Powell junior didn’t desert him. Tizzard just gets whatever jockey he feels like. Could be Johnson today, scudamore tomorrow, Brennan the next day, o brien occasionally, Powell at the low grade tracks.
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