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Hi, I need a bit of help with this race, as I don’t know how to do h’cap hurdles.
£21,917 to winner.
Sharp, right-handed track. Loamy, sandy sub-soil?
Going is Good, but on the Chase course it is Good to Soft in places.
There are just 2 frontrunners in the race – I haven’t finished analysing it yet, because I am tired and want to go to bed.
I really like Bywell Beau, who is one of the frontrunners. Will he automatically be the frontrunner, because he did the same at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle last season, or will Solent, who is younger, carrying 12 lbs less and more hotheaded (Montjeu) . . . I think I’ve answered that question. I’m a bit worried that they might set the race up for Along The Nile. What do people think of him?
SPLURGE Non-runner[/color:2snrwhe0]
Was running off 121 in Pierse Hurdle and given an RPR of 135. Is running off 137 on Briitish debut. I have asked a question about Irish & British H’cap Hdle ratings on the My Cheltenham Bets thread.
I think Superkauto10 mistakenly wrote that the horse likes Good ground.
“He loves heavy ground and just hasn’t had it over hurdles up until now.” 27 Dec 07 James Nash, trainer’s assistant.
However, he was a Hd second on Gd to Yielding at Leopardstown 2 March 08.
The horse is always running on at the end of races, which is why I am interested in him for Cheltenham. Because of that, I do not think that this course will suit.BYWELL BEAU
He is now 10yo, and has been trying his luck over fences.
His hurdles performances at Kelso, which is a sharp, but lefthanded track, are 22P1111. However, the horse jumps out to the right, so surely Musselburgh ought to suit more?
He seems to prefer Heavy to Good ground, but that might just be a combination of other circumstances.
His hurdle rating is 135, but he has put up several RPR performances in the low to mid 140s, though the most recent was nearly 2 years ago. The trainer hasn’t had a recent winner, but his horses are running to form. He has had an 83 day break, and has his winning jockey back on board.AMAZING KING
Has run and won twice at Musselburgh. Won off 117 by 10 lengths, on GF, and is now on 131. Would have to improve again. Whenever I write “one for the tricasts”, I always get it wrong. I think he has a much better chance than Splurge in this race. Am I wrong thinking that?MARCEL
“Outclassed” in Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial on seasonal debut.
Was 6th of 7 in this race last year, off a six lbs higher mark.
Apart from those two races, he has spent the past 3 seasons Chasing.
However, he was rated 144 at his peak, and won the Tolworth Hurdle. I think he is a possibility for the real thing in a few weeks time. When will the entries be out?HIBIKI
Favourite. Sh Hd second off 4lbs lower mark in similar race at Ascot last time. The RP post-race Analysis posed doubts about his resolution in a finish (Montjeu).EUROPEAN DREAM
Won off 3lb lower mark in modest pace, Gd to Sft race at Wetherby. Was in Nad Al Sheba this time last year. . . Probably wants the going softer and the track stiffer.MOHAYER
Has tried Chasing this year.
Rating is 1 lb higher than when 4th in the Tote Gold Trophy, or whatever it is called nowadays, last year.
Hasn’t yet put in a good performance on Good ground.LAZY DARREN
This is why I don’t like these races. This horse could pop up, and I wouldn’t be able to put my finger on why it popped up.UNFINISHED[/color:2snrwhe0]
Apart from Hibiki, most of the short-priced horses are carrying less than 11 stone.
LOS NADIS
Has dropped a couple of pounds. Used to lead, but recently tracking leaders or held up. A proper jockey has been booked, instead of an apprentice, so I don’t know which way he’ll be ridden this time.
Ought to run better than last couple of starts, now on Good ground.SOLENT
This one could lead, and not get caught, as he has won (dead-heated) over 2m on the Flat at Ascot. I think the H’capper has been slightly lenient on the horse’s h’capping debut.FOLK TUNE
Fourth in this race last year off a 2 lb lower mark. Won here over 2m4f last time. Has had quite a few hurdle races over the past 2 years (17). I’m not sure there’s any improvement left in him over this trip.GRINGO
Was put up 5 lbs for coming second at Sandown. I know he was out for a year before that, but I think the Handicapper has got him.ALONG THE NILE
Was 4th on seasonal debut in Folk Tune’s 2m4f race. Was 3rd in this race last year, favourite, off a 2 lb higher mark. On 29 Dec 2007 won by 2 lengths (2nd start) in 2m H’cap Hdle, Musselburgh, Gd to Sft. He must be a major contender, if not the major contender.BOLODENKA
Hit the last hurdle last time out, same course, same trip, same ground, on h’cap debut. Raised 4 lbs for being beaten 3.5 lengths, 8 lengths clear of the 3rd. RP post-race Analysis suggested he might not have stayed, but we’ll dismiss that. I think he has a better chance than stable-companion Joe Jo Star.JOE JO STAR
This horse is actually the favouruite, and not Hibiki.
Has been in form Flat, last 2 runs, but he was on a favourable mark.
Before that he won easily over this C&D, same ground.Was put up 12 lbs. However, the 2nd was an 11yo Claimer, giving him a stone. I’ve checked the race out on Attheraces’ Future Form. The second was 3rd in a CJ Sell Hdle next time, though beaten a length. The 3rd has gone Novice Chasing, so no clues there. The 4th was a 21 length 6th in Folk Tune’s 2m4f race.
The owners for the past 3 races have been the Ipso Facto Syndicate, and this race is The Plan. I gain the impression they like to have a bet, and I think this horse is a false price. I could very easily be wrong.SCENARIO
Solent will make the running, followed by Bywell Beau. Los Nadis {edit: and Amazing King] will be on their heels. Horses slowed down and backed up going around the bends. Then the sprint for home.SELECTIONS
I think the winner will come from Solent, Bywell Beau, Los Nadis, Along The Nile and Bolodenka. Okay, that is a third of the field!
I need to look at Amazing King again.
Hibiki will be a danger, and Lazy Darren is an enigma to me.
This sounds really stupid, but I think European Dream will be taken off his toes, even though he is a high-class flat horse.
I don’t think either Mohayer or Splurge will like Good ground at Musselburgh.
Marcel I’m waiting to back at Cheltenham, might not still be fit enough yet.
I think the Handicapper has got both Folk Tune and Gringo at this distance.
I’m opposing Joe Jo Star, and if he wins, I’ll just shrug my shoulders.I’ve employed a cunning plan in my quest to back a 100/1 (okay 99/1) winner. I’ve had TWO £2 bets accepted on betfair for Bywell Beau. That way, I can lay most of one off in-running, and still have the other, so I can say I backed a winner at 100.
I’m also having bets on Solent and Along The Nile, with savers on Los Nadis and Bolodenka.Joe Jo Star has drifted out to joint 3rd favourite, behind his stablemate, which is gratifying in one sense. On the other hand, it is eliminating the price I want to get for Along The Nile.
[Have already got 40 for Solent
]edit: have only just noticed Splurge is a non-runner.
Nice work Gerald,
I think the bookies have got this about right. Folk Tune for me as he runs well at this course/race and has quite a few of these behind him on recent form even though that was 2m4f. Cant see Hibiki being far away.
Marcel is an old fav of mine so I will have an e/w nibble there.
Good luck to you!
I watched the race in the pub.
Bywell Beau might have set off too fast . . .
This sounds really stupid, but I think European Dream will be taken off his toes, even though he is a high-class flat horse.
I decided in the end, that this WAS stupid. It was just that I couldn’t find any evidence in the form of him having performed well in a fast-run big field h’cap hurdle on Good or Good to Soft ground. Had a saver, but only at 15.
Made a grand profit of £6.03 on race, after commission. I suppose I should also deduct £3.20 for the pint of Stella in the pub.
Good stuff Gerald. Liked reading your train of thought. I am a bit doubtful, having watched the race, that the ground was good though. It was cutting up a bit and European Dream, a strong finisher on stiffer tracks, was the winner. Which I am using as my excuse for my selections flop (Folk Tune). Good race by Musselburgh standards mind.
I thought this was a cracking contest. I stood by the last hurdle for this one and it was a tremendous spectacle as six jumping the last were within a length of each other.
European Dream has two modes, go and slow. He needs holding up until the run-in and Paddy Aspell rode a cracker here.
Boldenka ran a decent race for a novice, finishing a close sixth. He’ll win a lesser handicap.
Bywell Beau is rather high in the handicap at the moment and has struggled with his jumping when fencing. However, if his trainer can get him into a handicap at Kelso, though off 135 that might be tricky, on soft ground then he might just pop up at a fancy price.
Rob
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