Sacha’s system

[MrE]

You oughta stop talking about eating it Slash, its disturbing….. :biggrin: … I only saw a couple of races today and one of ’em was Mithaks race, you were dead unlucky there, that one was ready to go in when the pillock fell at the last, it happens, no worries….. you need to continue with this for a while cos it has possibilities and its base is sound. Your looking for an improving animal, that’s a start, the prices are very tempting and are worthy of consideration too, so your looking pretty good at present. As the days go by, members will look deeper into it and start offering good advice and genuine guidance, this is difficult at the moment because we have no data yet, this we will build up over the coming days. I believe that within a couple of weeks you’ll have assistance from Dave, Kersly, Daz and myself, even Matron will help out in between his deliveries of Bromide and Viagra (not to the same customers)…. hehehehe……. you’ll get loads of losers but the last thing you must lose is heart…. keep going Slasher………..  <br>:smiley:

MrE

[sacha]

:biggrin: :biggrin: <br>i’m not sure what bromide is supposed to do – or shouldn’t I ask?

Ok – <br>Leicester 2.35 – Navarone – 1pt ew<br>3.05 – still giving ? on going a chance – Doigts D’Or – 1pt ew (if river styx wins I know the ? is a bad idea)<br>3.35 – Time n Tide – 1 pt <br>

[MrE]

Lo Slash, pretty safe bet today… :biggrin: …. I know that this is a new idea of yours, but have you any past results at all???…. I have a few back copies of the RP and I’ll have a look at it sometime during the week……

MrE

[sacha]

typical – just as all 3 were absolute certainties – it’s cancelled :biggrin: <br>No past results I’m afraid Mr E – although I once tried this same system (ascending form) on a day’s racing in France and picked all 6 winners on the card  – that’s why I thought I’d try it for real. (Well pretend real)<br>I will hone it down to include some other factors but will wait for a bit more data first.<br>Never mind – there’s always tomorrow

[dave jay]

Hi sacha, MrE is right, you should keep going and just keep amassing information. The more information you keep the better your system analysis is going to be later on. For example you are not recording horses that have an ‘X’ for Going ability. But if you don’t have previous results how can you know that this is a bad factor and then if it is bad, how bad? It might even be good in the long run. Personally, I make up a little sheet with columns along the top of it when I’m starting something new and record all of the things I think will influence the return.

On a brighter note I do have some records for the system type you are doing here. Not exactly the same but along the same lines. On the flat form ‘1111’ always produces a profit, year in and year out, for as long as I can remember. On the jumps ‘111x’ (x = U/P) is the same. The Tipster in the Mail (Gimcrack – I think) combines the last 2 results for his tips and he does alright.

I think that you will also find that this is more profitable in bigger fields than smaller ones.

Keep going and don’t let a few losers put you off. If I require assistance don’t be shy:biggrin:

[sacha]

Thanks for the tips Davejay. Stupiedly I haven’t been keeping track of other info – so will start today!<br>Todays selections<br>Huntingdon 12.45 – Bay Island 1pt – lost (only 3rd)<br>1.50 – no selection<br>2.50 – Nick the Jewel – 1pt – 1st 8/11

Ludlow 1.10 – no selection<br>1.40 – Lanmire Tower 1 pt (was only 4th but was 8-1)<br>2.10 – Reverse Swing (going a ?) – 1pt – lost<br>(I am not including the amateur riders as I don’t class that as a proper race!)

Taunton 2.00 – no selection<br>2.30 – Needwood Lion 1pt – 2nd<br>3.05 – no selection

Nearly forgot to add the banks position<br>opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 51 pts <br>total winnings 70.00 <br>bank as at 11/12 29<br>(Edited by sacha at 4:56 pm on Dec. 12, 2002)<br>

(Edited by sacha at 8:52 am on Dec. 13, 2002)

[kersly]

Hi Sacha,<br>Perhaps another angle is to look at the horses previous race this should indicate if the animal is being asked too much of a question-this can be indicated by Class of race and prize money.

1.40 Lud-D Hcp Ch £10003<br>Lanmire Tower-previous C Hcp £5432<br>Putsometnby-previous Irish Chase £8972 and before that 2nd in a £51748 seems to indicate it is held in high regard.<br>Id go with Putsomentby…f/c 9/4<br>___________________________________________<br>2.10 Ludlow-2m E Hcp H-£4056<br>Reverse Swing-previous-E Hcp H-£3494<br>Star of Wonder-previous-G Sell-£2765<br>I’d go with Reverse Swing as it not being asked to a great deal more than previous run…f/c 9/2<br>_____________________________________________<br>3.15 Lud-2m4f D Am Hcp Ch-£6695<br>Canadiane-previous 2nd in a D Hcp Ch-£6776<br>I’d make this a tentative selection because of its form with Cape Stormer but a selection it is___________________________________________2.30 Taunton-2m3f E Hcp Ch-£3562<br>Needwood Lion-previous race D HcpCh £5001<br>This actually appears to be a drop in grade and connections look keen to follow up.<br>_____________________________________________<br>12.45 Hunt-Bay Island-3m E Hcp CH-£3721<br>Bay Island-previous e Hcp £4006-again not being asked  a searching question unless the handicapper has caught up with the gelding.<br>_____________________________________________

Just a few suggestions maybe.Hope you dont mind.Good basic idea "ascending form".

Good Luck-kersly

[sacha]

Thanks Kersley – as I am actually going to start keeping some data today that might be a good indicator!!

[sacha]

Cheltenham 1.10 – Darapour 1pt – Lost <br>1.45 – Storm Damage – 1pt ew  3rd at 6/1 <br>2.20 – Spectrometer – 1pt – 1st yipee 4/1<br>2.55 – Horus – 1pt 1st 5/2<br>3.25 – no selection

Doncaster 2.30 – Friedhelmo – 1ptLost

I ahve a theory that if there is more than one selection and there is a significant difference in weight carried between the two ( 10 pounds +), then the next selection down that is carrying at least 10 pounds less should also be considered?? Does any of that make sense?:o

eg at Cheltenham today<br>1.10 Darapour is carrying 11-2. Both Uncle Mick and Live the Dream meet the other criteria, but Uncle Mick carries 10 pounds less, live the dream carries 12 pounds less.<br>So a trial selection of 1pt ew on Uncle Mick Lost

In the 1.45 only 9 pounds between spectrometer and the quads And the Quads won @ 6/1- so maybe 10 pouns difference is too much

2.20 – Telimar Prince has ? on going and only 3 pounds less than spectrometer. but he managed 2nd at 7/1 But Zamat is 1 stone 4 less so trial selection of 1pt ew.<br>(Scullys Hope 4th @ 12/1 & Coultard carry even less weight)

2.55 – Horus is 11-4, quite a few fit the criteria but Kit Smartie is 9 pounds less. However he has a ? on going so 1pt ew may prove to be a bit risky 4th @ 16/1but not enough runners, the others that fitted the criteria were Ballinclay King  3rd at 16/1 and Bramblehill Duke 2nd at 16/1

At Doncaster Lauderdale is only 8 pounds lighter than Friedhelmo. and he was 2nd at 10/1<br>I won’t include these trial selections in the running total today but it will interesting to see if any of these longer odds run into a place.<br>I think using the topweight of all my selections is not the best  as proved by some of the ‘other’ ones today – will think of this over the weekend.

opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 57 pts <br>total winnings 81.00 <br>bank as at 13/12 34 points

(Edited by sacha at 3:39 pm on Dec. 13, 2002)

[kersly]

Worth monitoring Sacha.Looking at as many angles as possible could result in some profitable filters.

Good Luck-kersly

[sacha]

Have to post saturdays now<br>Cheltenham 12.50 – Red Blazer 2nd ew6/1<br>2.30 Fonmort yipee 5/1<br>Doncaster 1.00 Meadows Boy non runner<br>1.35 Samuel WilderspinLost<br>2.45 Hurricane LampLost (2nd)<br>3.20 Full IrishLost (2nd)<br>Fakenham 12.35 Runaway BishopLost<br>1.10 Diamonds will doonly 3rd<br>Haydock 12.10 Nowell House (although carrying a lot less weight poss ew Sahhar and Marsh Marigold)EW lost (as did the other two)<br>1.20 – Monarch’s Pursuit Lost(Clan Royal less weight ew)he was only 5th<br>1.50 October Mist only 4th ew(carrying less weight theory Ballylusky)was 2nd in the end

Don’t know forecast yet so 1 pt unless 6/1 or more in which case ew

Not great!<br>opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 70 pts <br>total winnings 86.50 <br>bank as at 14/12 26.5 points<br>

(Edited by sacha at 10:57 am on Dec. 20, 2002)

[MrE]

Go to it Slasha, you did better than me ‘n Kers today, we had both our arses kicked…..  :biggrin:

MrE

[sacha]

Not been around for a few days due to work and sickness :(  so no idea how thgings would have gone this week.<br>Never mind here’s friday’s selections<br>Ascot 1.30 – Kattegat 1pt ew Lost<br>(sure future2nd 7/1, nemisto 3rd 12/1)<br>2.05 – Corletto 1pt ew3rd 13/2<br>3.10 – Wain Mountain ew lost(Mr Baxter basics2nd)

Uttoxeter 12.45 – Cresswell Quay lost (2nd)(Glanamana, more tears,benefiti,ndiscret all less weight)<br>3.00 – no selection<br>3.30 – en el em flyer – 1pt ew 3rd 5/1

opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 79 pts <br>total winnings 91.35 <br>bank as at 20/12 22.35 points

(Edited by sacha at 11:17 am on Dec. 22, 2002)

[sacha]

Ascot 1.20 – no selection<br>1.50 – Exit to wave ew 2nd 6/1 ( I also picked behrajan on Bob’s 4pp – if only I’d had some real money on these two)<br>2.25 – Giocomo ew lost

Warwick 12.35 – Imaginaire lost<br>2.45 – Sonny Jim ew 3rd 5/1<br>3.20 no selection

Uttoxeter 1.55 – Jaseurlost<br>2.30 – Black Bulletlost<br>3.05 – Die Flederman ew but as he has a ? against going I will also go for Oriental style ew thank god I had my doubts about die flederman – 1st at 6/1 <br>3.40 Haditovski lost

opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 93 pts <br>total winnings 105.6 <br>bank as at 20/12 22.6 points

(Edited by sacha at 11:15 am on Dec. 22, 2002)<br>

(Edited by sacha at 11:19 am on Dec. 22, 2002)

[sacha]

lets hope some of these come in and build the bank up!<br>Ayr 1.30 – Jupiter De Bussy 1st 11/8<br>2.00 – Star JackPU<br>2.35 – Yankee Jamie1st 13/8

Fontwell 1.45 – NS<br>2.15 – Little Ross ewUR

Hereford 12.55 – Kipanow ew, and My Native Land ew3rd 6/1 & PU<br>2.00 – Shellin Hill ew3rd 14/1<br>2.35 – Admiral PearryLost<br>Miss Lacroix ewLost

Sedgefirld 1.50 – Charming Admiral PU<br>Misty ramble ew2nd 7/2<br>2.25 – NS<br>3.00 – NS<br>3.30 – Denanus ew1st 11/4<br>Brooksbury Whorlton ewPU

Wincanton 1.30 – Nick the jewel F<br>Guignol du cochet ew 2nd 10/1<br>2.40 – Comex flyer only 3rd<br>3.15 – Walters destiny ew 3rd 7/1<br>favoured option only 2nd<br>3.45 – Dick turpin lost

Kempton – NS

Wetherby 1.35 – Europa non runner<br>2.10 – Camp Nou non runner<br>Forest ivory ew lost<br>3.20 – The nomad 1st 6/5<br>Maddys supreme F

Market rasen 1.00 – NS<br>2.00 – Nosam ew non runner<br>2.30<br>Thrillaminute PU<br>native trial ew 1st 11/2<br>3.00 – Grangewick Flight another NR<br>Agincourt lost only 2nd

opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 130 pts<br>total winnings 142.24 <br>bank as at 27/12 22.24 points

(Edited by sacha at 11:49 am on Dec. 27, 2002)

[sacha]

not too bad yesterday except most of my ew’s shortened too much – that’s the problem with SP I guess.<br>Chepstow 2.15 – harvis lost<br>2.50 – Chives ew & the Quads ew 2nd 10/1 & PU<br>3.50 – no selection

Kempton 1.50 – Ballinclay King ew & skycab ew NR and PU<br>2.25 – exectutive decision ewlost<br>2.55 – La Landiere 1st 2/1<br>3.25 – NS

Leicester 1.35  -NS<br>2.40 – NS<br>3.10 – Premier estate lost<br>3.40 – crokeronly 2nd

opening bank 10 pts <br>total bets 142 pts <br>total winnings 148.74 <br>bank as at 27/12 16.74 points

<br>(Edited by sacha at 11:48 am on Dec. 28, 2002)<br>

(Edited by sacha at 12:01 pm on Dec. 28, 2002)

[snowman]

Hope Croker does the biz for you today Sacha. Didn’t this one start you off with a nice 16/1?

By the way if you get bored over the holiday you could always go back over your results and see what the results would look like if you backed all selections win only. I feel certain you would show a better ROI if only because of the dramatic reduction in outlay.

If I get time might even do it myself for you.

Happy new year to all.

(Edited by snowman at 2:53 pm on Dec. 27, 2002)

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