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The more Zalensky can convince Putin that Ukraine wants to continue the war – the theory goes – the more Ukraine will get out of a peace deal when it comes.
The more Putin can convince Zalensky that Russia wants to continue the war (into other regions of Ukraine) – the theory goes – the more Russia will get out of a peace deal when it comes.
Therefore Zalensky and Putin will say they want to continue the war.
What both leaders say in public they’re effectively saying to their enemy. It is all propoganda.In private:
Putting myself in the shoes of Putin, can’t see him getting anything else from this war than Luhansk and Donbass.
And
Putting myself in Zalensky’s shoes, can’t see any chance of him getting back Luhansk and Donbass.Therefore the time for a peace deal is – in all probability – now.
Value Is EverythingPerhaps peace negotiations have already began? Two recent almost simultaneous events would support that.
1. Russia and Ukraine reach deal to end blockade of grain exports in Black Sea;
2. Russia resumes gas flows to Germany after Nord Stream “maintenance”.
Doesn’t appear that these events were coincidental. Moreover, any peace negotiations will certainly not be “bilateral”. EU/NATO may not be present at the table, but they do have a large stake in this having provided significant financial, logistical, and military (arms) aid to Ukraine. They will be there behind the scenes, rest assured…We’re in agreement Ginge. I’ve said from the start that both, and all sides
use propoganda, although some interprated this as me not believing Zalensky
early on. I think (or hope) that Putin will stop at what he has already got,
perhaps that’s all he wanted. Let’s hope so but it doesn’t bode well that
the Russians hit the port of Odesa with missiles after the apparent grain
deal that was done earlier.I think there’s a fair way to go with this before anything is properly
settled. I also think the appetite for this from the west is waning a
little. For Zalensky’s sake I hope there is a settlement in sight.Putin won’t “stop”, needs his enemies to believe he wants to go further in order to get what he feels is the best deal.
Russia may have signed the Black Sea deal, but that never meant Russia was going to leave Odesa alone.
Value Is EverythingApparantly the port (Odesa) itself is still functional, the Russians
state that the strike was on western arms being brought into Ukraine.
Despite my mistrust of the Russians, it’s not impossible that this is
the case (Clive would love that one
). Hundreds of Ukranian
officials have been charged with treason and his Domestic Security advisor
(a life long friend of Zalensky) and Prosecutor General have been given the
elbow. How many more (as yet unknown) are passing intelligence to the Russians.
If ever there was a good time for weapons to be brought in, it’s whilst there’s
an agreement to allow the ports to operate distributing grain, unless that
information is being relayed to Putin.
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