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RUK – Gold Cup Times analysis

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  • #7165
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Sorry, should have added a normal Gold Cup is usually run 10 secs faster than the Foxhunters. This year’s was over 14 seconds faster in the end.

    Kauto Star’s victory in the GC was only 6 seconds faster than Drombeag’s in the 2007 Foxhunters.

    Illuminating to say the least, and a potentially mortal blow to the arguments of the KS excuse makers!

    Yes well done my mind is at ease now.

    JohnJ.

    #152606
    One Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 24

    Ditto :lol:

    #152610
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    It backs up exactly what I said happened and what Harry Findlay said would happen.

    Denman won the race with a mid race surge like human distance runners do. It isn’t two out in such races that horses quicken up its mid race then they sustain the gallop which is exactly what Denman did. Non stayers will fade Denman didn’t he kept going and going at a relentless gallop and it put such pressure on Kauto’s jumping that he just couldn’t cope, he cracked.

    All the talk that Kauto wasn’t himself is rubbish. Yes he did run a few pounds below his peak form but that is because the conditions weren’t his ideal, Kauto’s ideal conditions are three miles on a flat track.

    For him to get as close to Denman as he did just underlines how fantastic a horse Kauto Star is.

    #152614
    Tete Rouge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 119

    This analysis makes the tactical prowess of Thomas and Findlay all the more admirable

    Eh? They did the flipping obvious ……

    #152619
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    This analysis makes the tactical prowess of Thomas and Findlay all the more admirable

    Eh? They did the flipping obvious ……

    Maybe but how many connections get carried away trying to "give a horse a lead" and all that. I seem to recall Henry Cecil doing it with Slip Anchor after his Derby win and many, many other examples would be just as relevant.

    Findlay and co didn’t mess about with Denman they let him do his own thing and played to his strengths.

    Sam Thomas’s ride shouldn’t be underestimated he had to judge the pace not an easy thing to do at the best of times let alone in such a high profile event, and he did it perfectly.

    #152621
    Tete Rouge
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    • Total Posts 119

    Sam Thomas kept his head admirably and rode a very good race but the tactics were obvious.

    #152637
    Ten Plus
    Member
    • Total Posts 812

    I agree – thanks RUK – well done! Very interesting!
    :) :) :)

    #152655
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4518

    I must admit to taking an opposite view on this.

    I already knew the Gold Cup was a faster race and Denman was tired at the end of the race. What new facts emerged?

    Full marks to Dominic Elsworth for waiting around to be interviewed – I am pretty sure many wouldn’t have been so patient.

    #152659
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Excellent RUK analysis of Gold Cup times this afternoon.

    They showed that the Gold Cup was run 16 seconds faster than the Foxhunters to the 3rd last. Crucially from the winning post second time round (at which point Kauto Star had started to make the first semblance of a mistake) to the 3rd last Denman injected enough speed to run the race to the 3rd last 8 seconds faster than the Foxhunters.

    Denman ran the remainder of the race in identical time to Amicelli – suggesting he had done his crucially tactical injection of pace well before the 3rd last and got home on fumes.

    Yeah, magical stuff – can’t think where they got the idea from? :roll:

    What this tells me is that Kauto Star did not run below form – he was simply put to the sword earlier in the race than was usual for him.

    Sure he was – much earlier than he would have been when strolling away with the Tingle Creek? :roll:

    Excellent work from the RUK team.

    Particularly as it took such a professional operation 5 days to analyse a race which was put to bed on TRF at the weekend. :roll:

    Also, I dont think, as some have implied, that KS looked beat after only a few fences – he only came unstuck once Denman injected the decisive pace going out on the final circuit.

    Which is only what you’d expect when a speed horse like Denman meets a plodder like Kauto? :roll:

    This analysis makes the tactical prowess of Thomas and Findlay all the more admirable

    .

    You’re not Harry Findlay are you? Only the rest of the racing world knew how he needed to de ridden last November. :lol: :lol: :lol:

    #152728
    Blue Brazil
    Member
    • Total Posts 90

    All we can do is hope that both horses are at peak fitness in next years GC and we get the decent Cheltenham ground, which suits KS more and see how the race turns out.

    #152775
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Sorry, should have added a normal Gold Cup is usually run 10 secs faster than the Foxhunters. This year’s was over 14 seconds faster in the end.

    Kauto Star’s victory in the GC was only 6 seconds faster than Drombeag’s in the 2007 Foxhunters.

    Illuminating to say the least, and a potentially mortal blow to the arguments of the KS excuse makers!

    Mortal Blow? Yeah sure like Kauto Star never improved an ounce since last year. He ran right up to form on the day and Ruby Waklsh has no idea what he’s taling about…….whatever you say I would hate to argue with an expert :shock: :roll:

    #152788
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    "Also, I dont think, as some have implied, that KS looked beat after only a few fences – he only came unstuck once Denman injected the decisive pace going out on the final circuit".

    Have people said that?

    I think the point has been made that his jumping wasn’t ‘up to scratch’ as early as the second fence.

    Colin

    #152815
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Also, I dont think, as some have implied, that KS looked beat after only a few fences – he only came unstuck once Denman injected the decisive pace going out on the final circuit.

    Which is only what you’d expect when a speed horse like Denman meets a plodder like Kauto? :roll:

    Reet, I think what the gold cup confirmed is that Denman is a million miles from being slow – Most of us got carried away with the fact that Kauto has won two tingle creeks. Taking Master Minded out of the equation I wouldn;t be surprised if Denman could be most of the 2 mile dvision as well. So when you try to give a horse like that a 6 length head start in tacky ground over a distance which is probably the limit of his stamina you have to say Kauto just wasn;t good enough.

    I was convinced he was but now think I was wrong.

    #152863
    Tete Rouge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 119

    Not sure who the "We all" is, but the tactics on Denman were entirely as I expected. Even if he front-runs, the norm has been to wind it up mid-way through the race, not to go out guns blazing.

    #152877
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Maybe I watched a different race, but Kauto Star seemed to be jumping perfectly well until the final fence on the penultimate circuit – in particular his jump at the top of the hill on that ciruit was stag like. It was only when Thomas really turned the screw that Kauto’s jumping came unstuck.

    I don’t think the tactics employed by Thomas were "obvious" at all. We all expected him to blaze a trail (Carvill’s Hill like) but he didn’t, he sat in behind Neptune and let Fitzy set the fractions for the first circuit. Then he delivered his killer blow with a circuit to go. His ride took balls, and tactical time awareness of the highest order. Imagine the pressure this young man was under in the race which may prove the turning point in his career.

    Apologies if I have been so presumptious as to assume Jon Neesom and Nick Luck are experts in anyway shape or form!

    He was jumping fine up util the first fence on the second circuit as you say but he was never his usual self at any time. Watching him in the King George qand other races he’s usually much keener early on and just din’t give me the same impression in the Gold Cup. Any time I have watched him I have always felt confident watching him but by the third fence I just din’t like the way he was going there was no buzz to him. This isn’t an afterthought it’s exactly how I felt at the t time during the race.

    To be honest I thought he could have been more impressive at Ascot and I wasn’t jumping with joy after that race. It surprised me Ruby had to chase after him as much, I thought he would win that without having to be shaken up after Kempton. I put it down to the fact he finished lame and must have felt that during the race a bit. They don’t all of a sudden stop and go lame aftter the race and you would have thought he must have been in a little pain at least…..Maybe he left his race at Ascot as Ruby said was a possibility. Maybe he was feeling his foot a but and simply remembered it which could explain the lack of keeness he usually shows.

    Who knows with horses they are a law unto themselves, all I know I thought he ran below form by a long way.

    Does my head in some people on here saying others are making excuses for the horse.it’s called race reading and they should try it some time….It will all come out in the washing and next time Denman, I am sure wont be winning by any 7 lengths. More likey he’ll be beaten 7 lengths if that’s all he can do when Kauto was not on song :wink:

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