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Very difficult to take a stand on this race at this time of the year, and certainly not helped any by the additional Novice Chases, but still a challenge to pick out long term fancies.
Would be here all day trying to work out what Gigginstown horse I’ll side with, but safe to say, I’ll probably get involved with a couple of em.
One horse who I hope does go this route is Seefood. Starts out today over fences at Limerick, and I’m hoping for a nice clear round. Runs over 2m 3f today, but I think he’ll be wanting a bit longer in time. Not too worried if he doesn’t win today, more interested in how he handles the larger obstacles.
Other longer term interests would be the likes of Holywell, and Grand Vision if they go chasing, and Imperial Leader.
Very, very, early days though.
Is Pont Alexandre injured ? Very few offering a price on Oddschecker, which also shows him at 37’s on Betfair.
Pont Alex. out for the season.
I like African Gold, record of Albert Bartlett winners and placed horse is the first place i always start for this race. He will be 6 at the festival and that age group dont have a great record in the race which is a slight concern, but ive taken the 20/1 which was available last week with 365. Id imagine NTD will get him out early and I could see him winning a soft Novice chase and then the bookies overreacting and slashing his odds to 10/1, which is the reason ive got involved now.
I’m trying not to get drawn into the novice chasers or the Neptune/Bartlett this year until things are way clearer. Now the Jewson is a grade 1 i’m sure this will attract the classier types – the RSA will be left to the higher grade dour stayers, but then again, the trainers will change their minds and go NH chase route!
Absolute minefield for ante-post punting. Managed to be in profit last few years, but so many tickets have gone by the wayside on the Novice races, it needs some real discipline to hold back
I think I read last week that Coneygree is likely to be out for the season which is a real shame
Don’t think any horse has thus far put down a performance that screams RSA winner. In previous years we would probably have had a single figure favourite by now. Just A Par cut in to a best priced 20/1 but as he started the season at 25/1 punters clearly remain unconvinced by his defeat of a non-stayer. It seems Ballycasey has almost become favourite by default. Similarly to last year at the moment he remains something of a triumph of hype over substance. Even making allowances for the shorter trip (on a stiff track) given the rave reports of his schooling his jumping was a little on the underwhelming side. It seemed that ultimately the front two (Ned Buntline was all over the shop) came back to him rather than Ballycasey finding a significant found a change of gear.
Wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if the winner has yet to jump a fence?
Those impressed with Just A Par as an RSA candidate should note that Nicholls was talking afterwards about a tilt at next year’s Hennessy so that similarly to Rocky Creek there must be a possibility he will sidestep the Festival.
Couldn’t help but be taken by Corrin Wood’s performance at Warwick today. The way he attacked some of those fences was a joy to watch.
Introduced to many RSA markets at around 14/1, but very tempted to get involved at the stand out 20/1 with SkyBet. Am a bit perturbed however that he is much shorter (around 8s) for the four miler. Anyone hear anything regarding the target for this horse?
Didn’t look short of speed, so not sure why the RSA trip wouldn’t be ideal for him, especially if he can cut out the tendency to jump right at times.
The Betfred Goals Galore Novices’ Chase developed into the expected match between odds-on Black Thunder and Corrin Wood, but it was the springheeled jumping of the latter that proved the trump card as the pair played their hands in the final mile.
Corrin Wood consistently outjumped his rival at the fences down the back and Jason Maguire kept the former point-to-pointer right up to his work to prevail by two and a half lengths, with the others beaten 34 lengths and more.
He was given a quote of 16-1 for the RSA Chase by Betfred, and Donald McCain said: "He’d been very impressive but we didn’t know quite how good he was. If he’d come here and finished second or third we might have looked at the four-miler, but he’ll definitely get an entry for the RSA now."
Can’t see Smad Place being beaten in this, assuming that Alan King’s stable is back in form by March.
Morning assembly for me at this stage, got the right profile for the race, ran a good race when 2nd in the Topaz, will improve for that experience against battle hardened Carlinford Lough. 14s a fair price.
Had a few quid on above mentioned Corrin Wood at 25s on Betfair this morning as I liked his attitude and DM indicates this is his preference.Haven’t been impressed by anything from the English trainers in this race so far (Wonderful Charm is a contender admittedly). Five Irish horses tick the box for me; Morning Assembly, Carlingford Lough, Ballycasey, Bright new Dawn and Don Cossock. Champagne Fever might go to Jewson but you’d think its a bit of a stretch to go from 2m to 3m.
Of the five mentioned above, Carlingford Lough is still over-priced at 12s/ 14s. He has the breeding, the experience, the engine and the jumping to win this. He had plenty in hand when beating MA and co last time out; McCoy didn’t even have to use the whip and was still pulling away.
He was pipped by Don Cossock earlier in the season but McCoy hit the front too early that day and also I think I’d struggle to favour the inconsistent DC whose temperament and breeding are not as solid as CL. I only hope they don’t over-do him by going for the PJ Moriarty in a few weeks time as clearly the horse goes well fresh and he’s had a long 6 months racing with Galway plate, Kerry national etc.
Anyways, I’m on at 14 s and might get stuck in again in a couple of weeks.
Agree with a lot of what you say Pointer but I’d want an Irish RSA candidate to be running in the Moriarty. Irish horses have won four of the last five RSAs and all ran in the Moriarty. More important I feel is having a run, whether it be in the Moriarty or not. Mouse Morris sent First Lieutenant to Cheltenham without a run for the RSA and he burned a lot of energy through freshness. To be fair, Carlingford Lough is a more experienced novice than First Lieutenant was then but I’d still prefer to see him in the Moriarty than go straight to Cheltenham. I’d fancy him to confirm the form with Morning Assembly.
I’m on Ballycasey but he’s too short on what he’s done. He needs more experience imo and time is running out if he’s to get two more runs. He’s being constantly nibbled at on Oddschecker though so perhaps my concern is misplaced.
I’m a big fan of Bright New Dawn and don’t think the Christmas effort was his true form at all. He was given a poor ride and was a spent force by the time they turned in to the straight. I reckon the Jewson is probably a more suitable target as he’s not short of speed. The same could be said of Don Cossack. I never really warmed to him but he won me over with his second to Morning Assembly. He looked a class act to me that day with some excellent jumping and traveled beautifully. However he was constantly reined back after his jumps and may have been better let stride on. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these stayed in Ireland and was targeted at the Powers Gold Cup. They’d both be big players over 2m 5f in the Moriarty that’s for sure.
Not a fan of the English runners either to be honest, some of them look very slow while Wonderful Charm, who looks the best of them to me, will probably run in the Jewson.
Carlingford Lough the value at 12/1?
Disappointing that Ballycasey has not been entered in the 2m 5f novice chase at Leopardstown on Saturday. Below are the entries:
(2:10) 17D Boylesports.com Killiney Novice S’chase
(Grade 2) €26,000.00 ( 2m 5f – 5yo+ )[MAX 28]
NHFrm
1315- 1 Bright New Dawn (DTHughes) – . …… (135)
1313- 2 Champagne Fever (WPMullins) – . ………….
1241- 3 Djakadam (FR) (WPMullins) – . ……………….
3121- 4 Don Cossack (GER) (GElliott) – . ……. (152)
1112- 5 Felix Yonger (WPMullins) – . ………….. (154)
1-11- 6 Mozoltov (GB) (WPMullins) – …………………
72f-1 7 Mullaghanoe River (NMeade) – . ……………
613p- 8 Road To Riches (NMeade) – . ………… (147)
1131- 9 The Paparrazi Kid (WPMullins) – . ….. (139)Disappointing that Ballycasey has not been entered in the 2m 5f novice chase at Leopardstown on Saturday. Below are the entries:
(2:10) 17D Boylesports.com Killiney Novice S’chase
(Grade 2) €26,000.00 ( 2m 5f – 5yo+ )[MAX 28]
NHFrm
1315- 1 Bright New Dawn (DTHughes) – . …… (135)
1313- 2 Champagne Fever (WPMullins) – . ………….
1241- 3 Djakadam (FR) (WPMullins) – . ……………….
3121- 4 Don Cossack (GER) (GElliott) – . ……. (152)
1112- 5 Felix Yonger (WPMullins) – . ………….. (154)
1-11- 6 Mozoltov (GB) (WPMullins) – …………………
72f-1 7 Mullaghanoe River (NMeade) – . ……………
613p- 8 Road To Riches (NMeade) – . ………… (147)
1131- 9 The Paparrazi Kid (WPMullins) – . ….. (139)Perhaps Willie thought 5 entries was enough? Given that Gigginstown have four themselves probably looking at a very small field and not much of an incentive to create a market. At least Gigginstown don’t seem to think the left-handed track was Bright New Dawn’s problem last time.
- Total Posts 764
Just done a quick bit of trends research for this race, the results are below. I’ve stated the year of the race, followed by the odds of the winner, then the date I’ve listed is the date of their final prep run before the festival and how they did in that race.
2006 – 14/1 – 27th jan won
2007 – 6/5 – 10th feb won
2008 – 4/1 – 16th feb won
2009 – 9/4 – 15th feb won
2010 – 10/1 – 7th feb 2nd
2011 – 16/1 – 12th feb won
2012 – 9/2 – 18th feb 2nd
2013 – 8/1 – 9th feb 3rdI was going to try and find a winner today but after seeing that all 8 of the last winners had their final run in mid February I’ve decided to wait until the end of the month to make a decision.
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