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"BHB FLAT WEIGHT-FOR-AGE SCALE
EXPRESSED as the number of pounds that it is deemed the average horse in each age group falls short of maturity
at different dates and distances. The scale was originally drawn up by the first official Jockey Club handicapper
Admiral Henry Rous in 1850, and revised by him in 1873. It was most recently amended from January 1, 1996."nearly 20 years ago!!!!!!!
A method for handicapping 2yo’s against older horses:
This will only only work if you have two races run over the same distance.
Englishman, a two-year-old colt trained by Charlie Hills won on his debut in a 5f34y (C4) EBF Maiden stakes at Newbury on the 20th April 2012, He carried 9st-3lbs and won by 1 length and recorded a time of 1m 7.61s (8.11s) seconds slower than the standard time.
On the same card, Mirza, a five year old trained by Rae Guest won the (C2) 5f34y sprint carrying 8st-7lbs in a time of 1m 5.59s (6.09s) seconds slower than the standard time.
Mizra a 5yo had an official handicap rating of
94
.
How good was the form for Englishman, how can you calculate a
Handicap rating for the 2yo Englishman and compare the form against Mizra’s race.1:
Subtract the difference in the Standard times.
Mizra 6.09s – Englishman 8.11s6.09s – 8.11s =
-2.02s
Look at my standard times list in the furlongs column i.e. Newbury 5f34y = 5.2f and the lbs. per length figure for 5f34y is 3.36.
Multiply 5.2 x 3.36 =
17.47
-2.02 x 17.47 =
-35.28
2:
From the last figure add the weight carried by the 2yo
and then subtract the weight carried by the older horse.
Englishman (9.03 = 129lbs) & Mizra (8.07 = 119lbs)-35.28 + 129 – 119 =
-25.28
3:
Add the Official rating for the older horse i.e.
"94"
.
-25.28 + 94 =
69
So Englishman form rating is
69
and looking at the BHA OR pars table, this makes the race time equal to a
class 5
contest.
BHA OR Pars:
Group 1 –120
Group 2 –
113
Group 3 –
109
Listed –
104
C2 –
92
C3 –
86
C4 –
77
C5 –
68
C6 –
58
C7 –
49
Food for thought
I was playing about with a new method to transfer a horses master rating from any racecourse and distance, using my lbs. per length scale (ref standard times list) below.
If we take
horse A
who has a master rating of
80
and this was achieved over 5 furlongs at Kempton and he then runs over the 7 furlong trip at Southwell, most speed handicappers will still work with the same master rating of
80
, even though it is a different trip.
The master rating correction:
5f
(lbs. per length) at Kempton =
3.38
7f
(lbs. per length) at Southwell =
2.29
Subtract 3.38-2.29 = 1.09
Divide 1.09 by .2 (1 Length) = 5.45
Subtract 5.45 from the master rating of 80 = 74.55
So when
horse A
runs over the 7f trip at Southwell his master rating would change to
75
.
This method can be used for any racecourse and over any trip.
What do you think, do I need to get out more?
So Englishman form rating is 69 and looking at the BHA OR pars table, this makes the race time equal to a class 5 contest.
BHA OR Pars:
Group 1 – 120
Group 2 – 113
Group 3 – 109
Listed – 104
C2 – 92
C3 – 86
C4 – 77
C5 – 68
C6 – 58
C7 – 49bluessbrother, lots of supposition in that to generate a figure of 69 including assuming Mirza ran to a fig of 94….
I assume when you say that Englishman ran a "time equal to a class 5 contest"…. you mean to add "…. of a 4yo or older mature horse".
If you were to add official WFA for Englishman, you would add 41lbs to get 110… so clearly not a cl5 contest.
Even if you don’t accept the official scales, am sure you would not consider the Newbury event a cl5 grade??
@ MaoriVenture
If you are adding 41lbs to Englishman’s weight, you are quoting from
The old weight-for-age table designed by Admiral Rous which is now obsolete and should be ripped up by the BHA.The Racing Post did attempt to correct the massive short comings in the original WFA table and came up with their own WFA table, this is a copy sent to me by Dave Edwards, just compare the two.
I do not use WFA when compiling my speed figures as the ratings get corrupted and you end up with the figures being too high.
Admiral Rous WFA table
41lbs
Racing Post WFA table
24lbs
Even the Racing Post’s figure of
24lbs
is too high, mind you this is only my opinion
In my Raceform Interactive Booklet, they have the speed par allowances what a 2yo should be achieving against older horses during April/March as only
-11lbs
Who is right, take your pick
So Englishman form rating is 69 and looking at the BHA OR pars table, this makes the race time equal to a class 5 contest.
BHA OR Pars:
Group 1 – 120
Group 2 – 113
Group 3 – 109
Listed – 104
C2 – 92
C3 – 86
C4 – 77
C5 – 68
C6 – 58
C7 – 49bluessbrother, lots of supposition in that to generate a figure of 69 including assuming Mirza ran to a fig of 94….
I assume when you say that Englishman ran a "time equal to a class 5 contest"…. you mean to add "…. of a 4yo or older mature horse".
If you were to add official WFA for Englishman, you would add 41lbs to get 110… so clearly not a cl5 contest.
Even if you don’t accept the official scales, am sure you would not consider the Newbury event a cl5 grade??
Well what would you call it then? Please enlighten us all.
After looking through blues brother posting and sheets, I must say he is one to listen to.
Admiral Rous WFA table 41lbs
Racing Post WFA table 24lbsEven the Racing Post’s figure of 24lbs is too high, mind you this is only my opinion
In my Raceform Interactive Booklet, they have the speed par allowances what a 2yo should be achieving against older horses during April/March as only -11lbs
blues brother, the point is you did not add any allowance at all onto Englishman’s race, but seemed to be suggesting it was just a class 5 race because you rated the winner a 69 horse through Mirza.
If you are only using older horse scales on which to compare 2yos against each other, that is fair enough.
But to say Englishman is only a 69 horse…. and those behind him are even worse? The 2nd, 4th , 5th and 7th all won next time out, two of them in good time and headed for Royal Ascot, as is probably Englishman.
Just on that basis alone, three of the horses in that maiden must be at least 95+ types, possibly 100+
itsawar, fwiw, I rated the winner Englishman a 92+ type on time figures and Smoothtalkinrascal 87+, but with the ability to rate higher as was not a great pace on early (2nd and 3rd led early)
itsawar, fwiw, I rated the winner Englishman a 92+ type on time figures and Smoothtalkinrascal 87+, but with the ability to rate higher as was not a great pace on early (2nd and 3rd led early)
That is irrelevant.
Redefining class categories is a fast way to profit. Weather you agree with the example given is not important. If you don’t like the example given, there is no need for nit picking.
It’s all a matter of opinion.
Personally I think that the method and theory to be of large amount of interest. The understanding of a calculation is far more important than the answer. Look at his figures, they make allot more sense that the dinosaur and nonsensical RP figs.
Hello blues brother
If you have time would you let me know How racing post standard times are arrived at?
A friend has mentioned they are made up of the 10 best times over the last 5 seasons for a mature horse carrying 9 stone on good ground.
I would imagine mature would be a 4 year old + and the races would have been a class one or two.
Regards johnOh Joy, I have just discovered that there are two 6f distances at Cork.
Due to the unraceable gorund on the sprint course they transfered the 6f sprint races onto the round course.
I have ammended the standard time list.
For anybody who is thinking about compiling their own standard time list, take my advice don’t bother, everytime I look at the standard times I find something else to change
Blues brother……….I’ve had an idea relating to standard times !
The idea is that you don’t use variable standard times for different tracks but you use set standard times for each distance and the track variable then becomes part of the going allowance
You set your standard time low so all races are above standard
eg………..you might have a 5 furlong standard time of 55 seconds
Horses might be recording 58, 59, 60 seconds at Epsom depending on class of horse, ground etc………….and they might be recording 61, 62, 63 seconds at Ponty
The horses that run at Ponty will have much lower raw speed figs but if you work your allowance in my usual method by relating raw figs to ORs then they will get a much bigger allowance added back on
The going allowance would then effectively incorporate a track variable as well as going and class allowances !
It’s not something I’m likely to start doing but I like to think outside the box as they say and see where it leads !
It’s not something I’m likely to start doing but I like to think outside the box as they say and see where it leads !
There is nothing wrong with thinking outside the box as I do that on a weekly basis, thinking up new ideas.
If we were to come up with a new set of standard times all my lbs. per length calculations would have to change.
Dave Edwards is the only only other person that knows how I do that and here is the simple formula.
The Racing post standard time for Epsom is
54.90s
:
54.90s divided by .2 (.2 is one length) = 274.5s
1
divided by 274.5 x 1000 =
3.64
(lbs.per length)
Using excel:
1/(54.90/.2)*1000 = 3.642987
I came up with this method in 5 minutes while drinking a cup of tea.
0.2 isn’t a length over 5f though.
If a 5f trip takes 55 seconds and one length = 9 feet then you would have 3300 feet/9 = 367 lengths. 55.00/366 = 0.15 seconds per length
If you call a length 10 feet which some may argue it is its 0.166 per length
I’d split the difference and call 1 length at that 5f trip as being 0.16
You’re all barking up the wrong tree I’m afraid, the "length" of a horse is measured by time not distance and it’s modified by the going – varying from 5 lengths per second through 5.5 lengths per second up to 6 lengths per second.
This pdf file explains everything: http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/media/Lengths_Per_Second_Scale_Tables.pdf
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