RP Standard Times List

[itsawar]

@blues brother, David bellingham is race form! it is the same guy.

On another note I bet like me you are itching for fractional times on all UK courses. If you are( i presume so) we must keep the campaign going. cheers

[TheBluesBrother]

@blues brother, David bellingham is race form? its the same guy.

On another note I bet like me you are itching for fractional times on all UK courses. If you are( i presume so) we must keep the campaign going. cheers

Fractional times will never appear on the gaff tracks due to the costs involved, I should think that the majority of the clerks of the courses wouldn’t want it as it would stop them moving the rails.

[robert99]

@blues brother, David bellingham is race form? its the same guy.

On another note I bet like me you are itching for fractional times on all UK courses. If you are( i presume so) we must keep the campaign going. cheers

Fractional times will never appear on the gaff tracks due to the costs involved, I should think that the majority of the clerks of the courses wouldn’t want it as it would stop them moving the rails.

There’s a campaign?

Never say never.
What are the costs then?
Which are the gaff tracks – not my track surely?
All turf tracks have to move rails. Turftrax measurements do not depend on relative rail positions.
Without "universal" coverage of all the races of a particular horse of interest, sectional times become a frustrating mix of speculation and facts. Newmarket – yes – Yarmouth – no, say.
That is why without any financial support Turftrax concentrated on full data on all-weather tracks.
Good that Qipco is encouraging sectionals, but data in isolation is only a historical record and not of much predictive use. Without a sponsor such as Betfair, punters will pay any costs, as usual, through the Levy – that is if it ever happens.

[itsawar]

i used to spend a lot of time making figures, however now i’m 80% visual, and other things in the mix.

My point. You all need to be very careful when making speed figures for the turf as they very rarely translate from course to course.

Secondly, figs do work on turf, but not speed figs, pace figs. 5 F sprint, on grass, they are moving slow 7/10ths of the way, the emphasis is on how the figure was achieved not what the figure is.

Thirdly, the only thing you will learn from backing figs blind is that it is not enough information to to base a bet on so you will loose.

[itsawar]

And yes rob there is a campaign, its called give us "sectionals UK wide, not just a fraction"! or something like that lol

[itsawar]

I’m just going to be blunt, no offence intended to all you speed cappers, but spending most of your time looking at a results sheet, which most of you are. Will never make you money or at the very least keep you out the red, or even give you a funder mental understanding of racing. Knowing a horse is a 1 lb advantage because its LTO fig is good, with a southwest wind of 8 miles per hour, drawn 1 from the rail , @ epson on the 10th of june, will only ever tell you just that. I’ve read just about every book worth the paper it’s written on, and spent 100’s of hours making figures, and learnt nothing, until i began watching racing all the time. 7 days a week. then i started getting some where. Wellaleast i understand where i was going completely wrong. Figs on their own are simply not enough.This is not 1970 in America.

However pace figs would be wonderful!!!!!! to add to the arsenal.

[TheBluesBrother]

@itsawar

I must be doing something right with my ratings because Dave Edwards "Top Speed" rang me up in the week to ask me about my lbs. per length calculations.
I spent 20 mins on the phone with him and gave him some examples
on why different courses needed their own lbs. per length variances.

Now on to other things:

Now that I have Raceform Interactive I wanted to find out what the up-to-date pars were for the BHA official ratings and the RPR (Raceform Ratings).

I ran the query against the database for the years 2010,2011 and 2012 and received the results from 13,600 races.
Using the new "Aggregate" function in Excel 2010 the pars were:

BHA OR Pars:

Group 1 –

120

Group 2 –

113

Group 3 –

109

Listed –

104

C2 –

92

C3 –

86

C4 –

77

C5 –

68

C6 –

58

C7 –

49

RACING POST RATINGS Pars:

Group 1 –

123

Group 2 –

118

Group 3 –

114

Listed –

108

C2 –

103

C3 –

97

C4 –

87

C5 –

76

C6 –

67

C7 –

58

Anybody who wants a copy of the query list:

Edit 20/4/12:

Just added years 2008 and 2009, plus other features in total 26,000 races which would help somebody compiling their own standard times.

http://tinyurl.com/7g8fv67

I Thought that it would be a good idea to do the Split Second pars as well.

SPLIT SECOND Pars:

Group 1 –

113

Group 2 –

110

Group 3 –

109

Listed –

108

C2 –

108

C3 –

106

C4 –

103

C5 –

100

C6 –

99

C7 –

98

I can never get use to how close Split Second class pars are to each other.

[itsawar]

ok

[TheBluesBrother]

One of the most time consuming jobs to do is, compile your own standard times.

With my new toy I have put together a database of 26,115 races with features like class, distances, winning times etc. everything you would need to start and make up your own standard times list.

http://tinyurl.com/7g8fv67

My next project will be to compile a list of racecourse class pars

[itsawar]

A list that would be really use-ful bluesbrother is a set of figures for dam and sire lines. A horse that ran 40 years ago say, it would be interesting to get a rough idea of how fast a blood line is. Difficult I know but if possible at all well worth doing.

Prehaps that information would come into it’s own right in maidens / unexposed horses ect?

[TheBluesBrother]

Stats for 40 years ago would be out of the question as there is no database available, I can only go back to 2005.

This is a sample of what can be achieved:

Sire stats for Galileo

———————-

This query shows how the progeny of Galileo performed on their racecourse debuts in Great Britain and Ireland over distances more or equal to 7f and when their SP was 5/1 or less. You can change the Sire Name, add a new race distance or SP to suit any search you wish to perform on any sire on the Flat.

Result 73 records selected:

Wins – Runs 20 – 73 (27.4%)

£1 level stake: 1.5 (+2.1%)

Longest losing sequence: 9 runs

[TheBluesBrother]

Thinking about systems, I wanted to know how 2yo maidens who were sent off favourite faired at

Yarmouth

from 2005 up to 2012.

I ran the query thought Raceform Interactive and the results that came back were mighty impressive.

Results 147 records:

Wins-Runs 71-147 (49%)

£1 level stake: 8.43 (+5.7%)

Longest losing sequence: 6 runs.

[itsawar]

Yeah I thought so.

I don’t use RI to run win/ loose stats on horses as you can’t understand how the win was achieved. (unless you watch them)
However then by watching these races one sees how unique each and every race really is. Thus making the stat in hand obsolete.

I use my query data base on ri to look at trainer patterns. It’s interesting to know which trainers are @ a loss when looking at their odds on shots over a large sample. With some examples I have found make some very interesting reading.

[itsawar]

@ blues brother

What do you think to racing post’s weight for age ratings?

[itsawar]

How ever Blues Bro, I believe that one can look into stats in far too much detail. Just because 35 % of the time this time happened doesn’t mean that factor will have any bearing on today. Surly the most cost-effective way to use stats and patterns is to understand why and how these trends occur. Alot of samples are to small, as well as others being way too large, or with unknown estimated variables being off the scale.

Stats with money(ie SP) tied in are also really really difficult to assess.
Just because 49% of favourites win 2 yo maiden races @ yarmoth doesn’t mean that the next one , two or ten will. That huge figure is acquired from 1200+ horses plus, and will having no bearing one horse today.

Also bookmakers will constantly look at figures like that and correct the odds as necessary In order to distort the market.

I believe knowing that kind of info gives you a 0% edge. Its yesterdays news, I believe being a good punter is about spotting tomorrows news.

Your thoughts and ideas please

[TheBluesBrother]

@ blues brother
What do you think to racing post’s weight for age ratings?

When I was talking on the phone last week to Dave Edwards "Top Speed" he asked me why I didn’t use WFA when compiling my speed figures and I told him they corrupted my ratings.

He said that he is trying to get the bosses at the Racing Post to let him stop using WFA because he doesn’t like using the Racing Post WFA scale because the 2yo ratings keep on coming out on the high side.

Why anybody uses WFA for 2yo ratings I just don’t understand because they only run against their own age group, bar one or two races a year.

Here is a pdf file Dave sent me, just compare the BHA official WFA scale against the Racing Posts and you will see what I mean.

WFA pdf file: http://tinyurl.com/6ypkofh

[itsawar]

None of them make any real sense to me when handicapping bluesbro.
I understand them, but not how they would apply to my day to day routine. How would you use them?

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