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The Blues Brother – some fantastic stuff on this thread
Quick question for you – do you compile your own going allowance per meeting based on time or do you use some form of standardised one based on the official going?
Thanks again
The Blues Brother – some fantastic stuff on this thread
Quick question for you – do you compile your own going allowance per meeting based on time or do you use some form of standardised one based on the official going?
Thanks again
I use the going allowances compiled by Dave Edwards as he is the best in the business and using an Excel macro I can work out a whole meetings ratings in 10 minutes with no mistakes.
This is the chart that Dave Edwards uses that appeared in the Handicap Book as somebody has asked for it.
So you have for
5f
,
3.54
lbs.per length and a length at
0.16
Flat
5f 3.54 0.16
6f 3.00 0.16
7f 2.60 0.17
8f 2.30 0.17
10f 1.90 0.17
12f 1.60 0.17
14f 1.40 0.18
16f 1.20 0.18
18f 1.10 0.18
Hurdle
16f 1.20 0.19
18f 0.90 0.19
24f 0.80 0.20
Chase
16f 1.20 0.20
20f 1.00 0.20
24f 0.80 0.21
26f 0.70 0.21
32f 0.60 0.21
34f 0.60 0.21So if you use this chart and the add weight for age and calculate the ratings using my sample above, you can work out how Top Speed complies his ratings, No Nick Mordin "smoke and mirrors" teaching here just true facts
Thanks for that but I still don’t understand where you got your going allowance of -0.9 for Dawn Approach due to yielding going
Thanks for that but I still don’t understand where you got your going allowance of -0.9 for Dawn Approach due to yielding going
Racing Post website, you have to be a member to view under Results > Course > Analysis of Winning Times.
Blues
Thanks for the explanation makes perfect sense…
How do you allow for class in your speed calculations ?
I see you allow for the different courses but not for different classes
in his book Mordin has a class rating based on sec/mile slower than standard
Thanks
Fil
I use speed figures to work out the par times to determine class.
This is still work in progress and I need at least 100 races per class to work out the median par times, because in this country unlike America, not all the races are run at true pace.
In America you can get by using only a sample of 25.
So far the sample I have been using comes from the AW only.
(C7)
60
(C6)
66
(C5)
72
(C4)
79
(C3)
86
(C2)
92*
(C1)
98*
* Need a bigger sample.
My Excel spreadsheet so far has 3254 races with winning horses and ratings from the All weather since I started about 15 months ago, all good things take time
.Blues….Good luck for the new flat season……can’t wait
I am using an hybrid of your system and my own……
Perhaps we can compare ratings during the next few weeks to see how things are progressing
All the best
Fil
A method for working out going allowances:
Standard Times list: http://tinyurl.com/69fol76
The official going at the Curragh was classed as Yielding and Dave Edwards “Top Speed” assessed the going at -0.9 per furlong and the time based going as soft.
Dave Edwards stated to me in an email that there are no hard and fast rules which govern the determining of a going allowance for a particular meeting it is basically an educated guesstimate backed up by 30+ years of experience and a ‘feel’ for a particular race, arrived at after analysing the times recorded compared to standard, climatic conditions and calibre of horse.
We still need a basis to start from when assessing the going allowance so this is a method I came up with as I try to come up with the same going allowance as Dave Edwards i.e. -0.9s/f.
Curragh 25th March 2012
2.30-Dawn Approach-5f-6.93s
3.00-Redoutable-6f- 8.42s
3.30-Croisultan-6f-6.71s
4.00- Chrysanthemum-8f-10.2s
4.30- Coolnagree-7f-8.48s
5.00- Sharestan-8f-8.69s
5.30- Amira´s Prince-8f-11.25sThe first race was a 2yo contest won by Dawn Approach and the time was 6.93s outside standard.
Looking at the standard time list (see above) for the Curragh, the 5 furlongs lbs. per length is 3.37.
Subtract 6.93s from the 3.37 lbs. per length, and then divide by 5 furlongs (check the Furlongs column as 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton is 5.1f).
3.37-6.93/5 = -0.71 (the 2.30 was run at -0.71s slow per furlong).
Repeat the same calculation for all the other races, we end up with:2.30(-0.71s)
3.00(-0.93s)
3.30(-0.65s)
4.00(-01.02s)
4.30(-0.87s)
5.00(-0.83s)
5.30(-1.15s)The next thing to do is to remove the extremely fast or slow times, remove the
top & bottom 2
so you end up with
-0.93
-0.87
-0.83The average is
-0.88s
Dave Edwards -0.9s
Blues -0.88sHave fun
I worked out the average going per furlong (above post) and I ended up with
-0.88s/f
, so the question now is, what was the going?
(
Firm
)
+0.25
s/f to
+0.76
s/f
(Good/Firm
)
+0.11
s/f to
+0.56
s/f
(Good
)
-0.35
s/f to
+0.24
s/f
(Good/Soft
)
-0.22
s/f to
-0.78
s/f
(Soft
)
-0.52
s/f to
-1.20
s/f
(Heavy
)
-0.90
s/f to
-2.50
s/f
The official going at the Curragh was recorded as
Yielding
which is good to soft in old money.
But the
-0.88s/f
average going per furlong shows that the time based going was in fact
soft
, ref the
soft
going calculation of
-0.52s/f to -1.20s/f
.
Note: you will have over laps in the going calculation table.
Blues….
not withstanding the debacle from the RP…
who are the top 3 horses from the weekend according to your ratings…
Let me know and when I get my laptop back I will give you mine…..currently on iPad
All the best
Layla looks a good bet for Mussel tomorrow based on her run last weekend
Fil
Blues….
who are the top 3 horses from the weekend according to your ratings…My top ratings are easy to view, just use the date filters in my excel sheet, the top five were:
Edinburgh Knight (IRE) –
109
Mull Of Killough (IRE) –
104
Fury –
104
Eton Forever (IRE) –
104
Brae Hill (IRE) –
103
The best performance of the weekend was
Edinburgh Knight’s
4th place in the Lincoln, and the rating of
109
makes him pattern class, the previous best speed figure I had for him was
88
.
The official handicapper has raised him up to105
.
Roll on this week,s racing……Now the flat season starts…….will be watching and rating
Ready to strike in the next month or so……
highest rating for me is Cirrus DES Aigles……..154 15 oct 2011Ransom Note due to run this week at HQ
one to watch and see how he performs
good luck to all Raters
Fil
highest rating for me is Cirrus DES Aigles……..154 15 oct 2011
FilCirrus Des Aigles
(FR) was also my top rated on a speed rating of
121
in 2011.
My Ratings 2011 (62,000): http://tinyurl.com/c7p6eag
He only managed a speed rating from me of
107
when winning the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan 2012.
Blues
I am using a base rating of 125 rather than 100…..
This way I can relate the figure to the OR rating expected
e.g I think a Group 2 horse should be about 120
yet to prove it this year but will not plan to have a bet until end of April…..just watching and evaluating for now
good luck if you are having a bet this week
I will post my ratings for Newmarket on the weekend
Fil
I think a Group 2 horse should be about 120
A horse with a OR of
120
would be a Group 1 performer, the BHA
OR
pars would be something like this.
BHA Pars:
Group 1
113
Group 2
108
Group 3
106
C1
100
C2
91
C3
85
C4
76
C5
67
C6
57
C7
46
Top Speed
:
Group 1117
Group 2
109
Group 3
102
C1
98
C2
94
C3
85
C4
79
C5
65
C6
62
C7
52
Split Second (Dave Bellingham):
Group 1
112
Group 2
111
Group 3
108
C1
107
C2
108
C3
105
C4
103
C5
100
C6
99
C7
96
Raceform:
Group 1
122
Group 2
118
Group 3
113
C1
108
C2
102
C3
95
C4
86
C5
75
C6
64
C7
54
The above par lists were given to me several years ago by Stuart Eaton author of "Class Figures".
When I receive my copy of Raceform Interactive, hopefully I can check some these pars
Great work, BB. Always enjoy reading your stuff on here. Split Second Class Pars are…
Class A Group One 117
Class A Group Two 115
Class A Group Three 113
Class A Listed 111
Class B 109
Class C 107
Class D 105
Class E 103
Class F 101
Class G 99
Class H 97Will do the Craven meeting figures and post them up here. Found that Stuart Eaton book very incoherent and inconsistent.
.
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