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Reverse Form Ratings

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  • #1529
    Garvee
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    Hello All<br>On the excellent "RP Ratings" thread Dave Jay mentioned the fact that Adrian Massey uses reverse form ratings-e.g. 3rd out of 10=7.<br>I like the sound of this and was thinking of trying to use it . However I felt that it was a bit simplistic and was wondering if there was any way of making the figure a bit more scientific-I was thinking something along the lines of reducing the figure by one point for every half a length per furlong behind the winner.<br>As a relative novice/lazy punter, my knowledge of the game is not all it should be so I thought  I’d seek some advice here.<br>Any suggestions gladly accepted and also feel free to tell me if the idea is c**p!!:biggrin:

    PS.From the dim and distant past I seem to remember someting called "percentage reduction ratings"-Anybody got any ideas on those.

    Thanks for your time.<br>Kind Regards<br>Garvee<br>

    (Edited by Garvee at 1:39 pm on Oct. 3, 2004)

    #55620
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Just a quick reply, Garvee.

    Ratings based on finishing positions/distance behind winner only have some relevance if you take account of the standard of the race. Otherwise, giving an extreme example, winners of selling races would rate higher than horses that finished down the field in the classics.<br>Adrian Massey does, of course, take the race class into account.

    As a ‘lazy’ punter, the Fineform Ratings formula mentioned on the RP ratings thread, might suit you and you could easily adapt it to your own preferences. I might add that ‘lazy’ punters are always welcome in any betting establishment, but good luck anyway.

    #55621
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Garvee,

    If you work out a reverse form rating for each runner, which is not a small thing, if your doing it by hand, you might as well adjust it for Class.

    I would advise against using percentage reductions or getting into past form too heavily or you will end up with monstrous task for each race. The reverse form rating will be enough on that score.

    You can adjust for class like this;

    If today’s class is ‘D’ for example.

    Then all race classes for previous runs are factored from ‘D’

    So;<br>D = 1<br>E = 0.9<br>F = 0.8

    C = 1.1<br>B = 1.2

    If a horse has run on it’s last two starts

    2 of 10 .. class D = 10 – 2 = 8 x 1 = 8<br>3 of 10 .. class C = 10 – 3 = 7 x 1.1 = 7.7

    It’s rating is then; (8 + 7.7)/2 = 7.85

    Instead of 7.5 if you had not factored in for class.

    That doesn’t seem like much (0.35) but if you consider you will have horses going up and down in class, it will make a big difference over all!

    From a workable point of view, it is advisable that you only work out one rating type and then set up your factors from the raw data. Using factors which you think are important. Like if you thought class was really important you might use a factor of 0.2 for each class jump and increase the rating value by 20% instead of 10%.

    Hope this helps!

    #55622
    Garvee
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    A & DJ<br>Thanks for the prompt and helpful replies:

    Quote: from Artemis on 7:03 pm on Oct. 3, 2004[br]. I might add that ‘lazy’ punters are always welcome in any betting establishment, <br>Spoken like a true ex-bookie Artemis!!:biggrin:

    Dave , thanks for explaining the way to factor in class-I know you mentioned it before when talking about AM. but this explanation has made it a lot clearer and given me something to work with.<br>Thank you both once again.<br>Kind Regards<br>Garvee

    #55623
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    No problem,

    If you want, you can PM me your e-mail address and I’ll send you a spreadsheet for working it out, providing you’ve got excel on your machine.

    Dave

    #55624
    Garvee
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    Dave<br>Received the spreadsheet and have sent you an e-mail-I think!!-  Microsoft Outlook being a bit tempremental!!<br>If you didn’t get it , please accept my thanks.<br>Regards<br>Garvee

    #55625
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    A pleasure.

    #55626
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Dave

    Can you send me a copy of the spreadsheet at well?

    ;)

    #55627
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    No Problem mate, drop me your e-mail address via the personnal messenger on here and I’ll send a copy off to you ..

    #55628
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Done Dave

    ;)

    #55629
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Good mate, hope you make good use of it … :cool:

    #55630
    Have fun
    Member
    • Total Posts 128

    Hi Dave have only just seen your message it was on this thread<br>Thanks in advance

    #55631
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I’ll knock you one up next week mate .. !!

    #55632
    Have fun
    Member
    • Total Posts 128

    I take it you’ve been busy Dave

    have fun

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