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Agrapart will be fresh for this and gets his ground so I quite like his chances.
Had an EW tickle on Rayvin Black at 33s ignoring his rating and his wide margin defeat LTO (smallish horse trying to give away lumps of weight that time).From my blog:
I like Old Guard a lot. He’s bounced back to his best this season but has never won on heavy ground. Also, he’s had a couple of tough races of late in what’s been a busy season so I’m going to bypass him here in favour of Agrapart.
Agrapart won this last season at 16/1. He’ll be half that tomorrow but that price will still be too big. Almost half of his career runs have been in France (where his favoured heavy ground is much more common) but he hasn’t done well there on his last three runs. I think this has diluted his formline on looks and allowed him to come here under the radar. This horse has some pretty strong British form, even over 2 miles. The yard is red hot with a strike rate of close to 50% (had a winner and a 2nd yesterday) and, on value, I make him my nap.
Agrapart 7/1 nap
Colins sister for me
Me too.
Like Agrapart to repeat last year’s win although his two runs in France on his favoured ground leave me a little worried as he was beaten a very long way both times – had the ground been better than Old Guard (back with Bryony Frost) would make appeal but Colin’s Sister getting 7lbs from Agrapart may be the biggest danger.
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