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Hi Billion
From my last post:-
At the moment I am only looking at Non Handicap races.
Racing Oracle only covers UK Flat meetings
from which there were 5 non handicap races today.
Wish you lot would keep the noise down…I’m trying to get some sleep!
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Its no good I’m fully awake now.
I’d just like to add my vote to those who have recommended HorseRaceBase Ratings on horseracebase.com
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Hi Billion
I am a newbie to the forum but I would like to tell you about a very simple but deadly method of horse race selection using one speed rating.
Either go online to the Racing Post web site and become a basic member, buy the paper or read it for free in the Betting Office.
Before I explain this method let me just say that I am a serious punter who used to formulate my own ratings, both handicap and speed, study form for hours, follow money horses and even had "inside information". I am always on the lookout for a solid selection method based on logic. I have been monitoring this particular method for a while now and today there have been a host of winners again at 8/1 7/1 and 25/1 plus others at 2/1 5/2 and 9/4.
OK Based on the premise that the fastest horse should win or at least be up there with a fighting chance; which is THE most important speed figure a horse can earn? The latest most recent one. Just check any of the sources given online or in print, and look at the most recent run and the speed rating for that run. In the Post paper edition, you’ll find it in bold in the Topspeed tables and online check at the foot of the race under the betting forecast and click Topspeed and check the last 6 races of each horse. The last rating on the right of these ratings ( the 6th one) is the most recent. DON’T use the Top Topspeed figure on the left of the tables unless it tally’s with the latest figure. If there is only a pound or two between the top two either miss the race or back them both. You will find that some races produce a horse with a recent rating of 6lbs or more above any other runner. These are the ones to take seriously.
The rating you obtain may be different to what you see in the OR, RPR and TS ratings on the card as those TS ratings are the BEST the horse has achieved, but if it achieved it a long time ago it’s pretty meaningless.
Once you have a selection you can check out the form for suitability of going and trip although to a great degree the Trainer does this as he has to try and place his horses correctly. As far as Class is concerned, these selections will have the necessary class ( ability ) to win this particular race as they have shown themselves to have the fastest most recent time of all the runners.
So there it is. It may sound a bit long winded but it is very simple once you get the hang of it. Of course it is best to stick to races where there is enough information for all the runners. group, listed and handicaps offer good opportunity’s. A bonus is that because most punters will use the (best) TS figure together with RPR and OR or Tipsters selections, which are usually Favs, the prices of some of these selections are pretty good. I don’t bet at less than 9/4 because there is no point really because the short priced winners usually only cover for the next losing bet. 9/4 and over gives you a chance of long term profit. Good luck and if you have any questions, just ask.
‘morning
wwweeerrr
Thanks for the posting.
If you read a couple earlier postings you will see I have problems digesting all things in one go and
Matron
is quietly suggestion I have not been taking the medication.
What I want to know is
Who Split on Me
?
So to explain myself to you
wwweeerrr
(is this your christian name or surname?) I will take my time and break it down into sections and learn a bit at a time and then
DOLUS & MATRON
will stop having a go at me, – just wait until they are old, then they won’t be laughing so much.
On a more serious note
wwweeerrr
(hope I have spelt it right) I do thank you and sure members will be crawling out of the woodwork to try it out and perhaps they will post up their results.
Thanks again.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
YORK 2-15 Pintura (93) 2nd 12/1
Gunner Linley (91) 1st 8/1Off and running!!
Hi
Billion
Age is all in your head.
I am a retired old git and the peace and quiet of Ward 7 suits me, except when
elcartero
started shouting just now. No doubt when it’s really quiet you have heard the wheels on my bath chair squeaking.
On to
wwweeerrr
‘s post (What sort of a user name is that, sounds like someone who is pissed trying to growl.)
Though the post was long the principle is simple just pick the horses that had the last fastest Topspeed rating from the Racing Post.
The problem with this system for you (and me), is that we are going to have to spend money to find the selections.We are either going to have to buy the Racing Post or take a subscription out for the web site to access the last time out ratings.
Good idea though. The old Brimardon programs were based on this premise, before they went all greedy.
Hi dolus
As I am a very old bloke with a bad memory I thought that wwweeerrr is easy to remember as it is top on the keyboard. if you go to the betting office you don’t have to pay anything and if you can’t afford to subscribe or buy the paper you shouldn’t be betting anyway.
3-15 YORK Easy Ticket 102 Only run on g/firm
Katla 99 Loves soft WON 5/1Brimardon based on all kinds of things and ridiculous claims! Stick with this!!
Hi wwweeerrr
Going good today
if you go to the betting office you don’t have to pay anything and if you can’t afford to subscribe or buy the paper you shouldn’t be betting anyway.
Er! it was tongue in cheek.
True Brimardon do claim all sorts of things now, but I was talking about back in the mid eighties when they were selling programs for a few quid that were considered quite good.
Then they got mixed up with Tic-Tac and became just interested in taking peoples money. (Notice how I politely avoided using words like shysters, scammers conmen or crooks)
Just found this – http://www.sportingsystems.com – some probability data to download – and its free
Oh
Dolus
wwweeerrr
does not sound like someone who pissed trying to growl, it sounds just like me in the middle of the night when I forgot to take my prostrate pill
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi everyone
Just looking at the free stuff re technical data and how to build a system saying that if you tell anyone everyone backs the same horse and the price goes. In light of this wise statement please ignore my Topspeed method as I know you are all heavy hitters and I don’t want your extra £10 bets to influence the market
I know you are all heavy hitters and I don’t want your extra £10 bets to influence the market
That much Wow. Billion and I are in the 10p club which is 9p better than
Deal or No Deal’s
1p club.
I take it you were not impressed with the sportingsystems web site.
Hi Dolus
Yes I was impressed with the sight but I couldn’t get the hang of the probability being different to the odds. Nobody knows what the true odds should be neither do they know what the true probability is. I guess you could re form the market to show a 100% book and then back any horse that is miles above it’s 100% book odds. I believe that Rothman Racing did this years ago, but whether it "works" in the long run remains to be seen as you are betting to prices ( mind the odds are a fair reflection I suppose of the chances of the runners. After all the bookmakers odds compilers are better form experts than any of us I think) Yesterday, DUBAWI GOLD in the first race at Ascot was quoted at 8/1 in the RP betting forecast, and was returned the winner at 25/1 being bet in from 33/1. I suppose you don’t need many of those to make a profit.
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