Ratings experiment – handicap races only

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I’m a sucker for handicaps. Always have been. As a consequence, ratings method number 458 makes its TRF debut today!

Rather than attempt to list all the day’s selections here, please follow the link below if you’re interested.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdDNmXy1sNXVlaTl6bHB2Y2hrUmJEZ1E&output=html

The races are displayed in chronological order and the runners in ranked order, i.e. Rank 1 = top rated, etc., etc. Rather than just list the top three/four in each race I’ve listed all the declared runners so that any subsequent non-runners which effect the order of the ratings can be noted.

I’ll be primarily concerned with the performance of the top rated horses so I shall concentrate solely on them when it comes to analysing strike rate and profit/loss etc.

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Summary of results for 02 May 2011

Races rated – 26 (There were 27 selections as one race had joint top ranked horses). There were 5 winners…..

14:00 Kempton – Addikt @ 5.35
14:15 Chepstow – Boa @ 6.20
14:50 Beverley – Another Wise Kid @ 7.62
14:55 Windsor – Norville @ 6.35
17:10 Warwick – Anton Dolin @ 4.94

Returns to 1pt win on all top rated horses @ BSP after 5% comm. = +2.19

Incidentally there were 13 races in all today where the winner came from the top two ranked. Those ranked 2nd in the ratings that won were….

14:40 Warwick – Irish Boy @ 3.80
15:00 Kempton – Quality Art @ 3.07
15:40 Warwick – Treasure Way @ 4.22
16:20 Beveley – My Gacho @ 5.55
16:30 Kempton – Seaside Sizzler @ 4.87
16:40 Warwick – Sergeant Troy @ 1.82
16:50 Beverley – Coax @ 5.29
17:00 Kempton – Ray Of Joy @ 5.30

[Have fun]

Looking forward to see how this fares.
good luck with it

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Rankings for Tuesday 03 May 2011

From today I’ll be listing the top four ranked (or top three if only three runners) in each race.

14:40 Newcastle Hail Tiberius 1
14:40 Newcastle Bollin Judith 2
14:40 Newcastle Capable Guest (IRE) 3
14:40 Newcastle Valantino Oyster (IRE) 4

14:50 Fakenham Petroglyph 1
14:50 Fakenham Buailteoir (IRE) 2
14:50 Fakenham Free To Air 3
14:50 Fakenham Hardwick Wood 4
14:50 Fakenham Frosty Spring 4
14:50 Fakenham Feeling Peckish (USA) 4

15:30 Bath Athwaab 1
15:30 Bath Spic n Span 2
15:30 Bath Bateleur 3
15:30 Bath Metropolitan Chief 4

15:45 Newcastle Frequency 1
15:45 Newcastle Ezra Church (IRE) 2
15:45 Newcastle Whispered Times (USA) 3
15:45 Newcastle Taste The Victory (USA) 4

16:05 Bath Baddam 1
16:05 Bath Never Can Tell (IRE) 1
16:05 Bath Saborido (USA) 3

16:15 Newcastle Adlington 1
16:15 Newcastle Tapis Libre 2
16:15 Newcastle Regimental (IRE) 3
16:15 Newcastle Sabratha (IRE) 4

16:35 Bath Sunset Kitty (USA) 1
16:35 Bath Saddlers Bend (IRE) 2
16:35 Bath Dr Wintringham (IRE) 3
16:35 Bath Tap Dance Way (IRE) 4
16:35 Bath Jewelled 4
16:35 Bath Commerce 4

16:45 Newcastle Brave Dream 1
16:45 Newcastle Piccoluck 2
16:45 Newcastle Sergeant Suzie 3
16:45 Newcastle Roodee Queen 3

17:00 Fakenham Little Carmela 1
17:00 Fakenham Petit Fleur 2
17:00 Fakenham Kanonkop 3
17:00 Fakenham Daraz Rose (IRE) 4

17:10 Bath Crown Ridge (IRE) 1
17:10 Bath Out Of The Storm 2
17:10 Bath Fire Crystal 3
17:10 Bath Areef (IRE) 3

17:20 Newcastle Adam De Beaulieu (USA) 1
17:20 Newcastle Convince (USA) 1
17:20 Newcastle Beckermet (IRE) 3
17:20 Newcastle Ubenkor (IRE) 4

18:20 Exeter Barnhill Brownie (IRE) 1
18:20 Exeter William Hogarth 2
18:20 Exeter Kasban 3
18:20 Exeter Rolanta (FR) 4

18:50 Exeter Bushwacker (IRE) 1
18:50 Exeter Misamon (FR) 2
18:50 Exeter Beauchamp Viking 3
18:50 Exeter Beherayn 4
18:50 Exeter Nesnaas (USA) 4
18:50 Exeter Rudivale (IRE) 4

19:00 Catterick Mastership (IRE) 1
19:00 Catterick George Benjamin 2
19:00 Catterick Khandaq (USA) 3
19:00 Catterick Mujaadel (USA) 4

19:20 Exeter Marigolds Way 1
19:20 Exeter El Diego (IRE) 2
19:20 Exeter Bollywood (IRE) 3
19:20 Exeter Tinalliat (FR) 4

19:30 Catterick Bandanaman (IRE) 1
19:30 Catterick Drop The Hammer 2
19:30 Catterick Sendali (FR) 3
19:30 Catterick Heart of Dubai (USA) 4

20:30 Catterick Mandurah (IRE) 1
20:30 Catterick Dancing Freddy (IRE) 2
20:30 Catterick Patch Patch 3
20:30 Catterick Six Wives 4

[Hatter]

Good to see you back DD
Can’t keep a good bit of data down
Nice start
All the best

Hatter

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Results for Tuesday 02 May 2011

14:40 Newcastle Hail Tiberius Unpl.
14:50 Fakenham Petroglyph Unpl.
15:30 Bath Athwaab 2nd
15:45 Newcastle Frequency 3rd
16:05 Bath Baddam 3rd
16:05 Bath Never Can Tell (IRE) 2nd
16:15 Newcastle Adlington 2nd

16:35 Bath Sunset Kitty (USA) (Ranked 1)

N/R

16:35 Bath Saddlers Bend (IRE) (Ranked 2)

1st 6.20

16:45 Newcastle Brave Dream Unpl.
17:00 Fakenham Little Carmela Unpl.
17:10 Bath Crown Ridge (IRE) Unpl.
17:20 Newcastle Adam De Beaulieu (USA) Unpl.
18:20 Exeter Barnhill Brownie (IRE) 2nd
18:50 Exeter Bushwacker (IRE)

1st 2.72

19:00 Catterick Mastership (IRE) Unpl.
19:20 Exeter Marigolds Way

1st 3.49

19:30 Catterick Bandanaman (IRE) Unpl.
20:30 Catterick Mandurah (IRE) Unpl.

Disappointing day yesterday – 19 selections but only 3 top ranked winners resulting in a loss of 7.06 pts overall.

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I’ve decided to simplify things by posting just the top ranked selections. If any of them don’t run then so be it.

Today I’ve ignored the Novice/Selling handicaps so these are the selections for today.

14:55 Chester Tastahil (IRE)
15:20 Southwell All Right Now
15:30 Chester Blue Jack
15:55 Southwell Boy The Bell
16:15 Kelso Our Jim
16:30 Southwell Fair Passion
16:40 Chester Gottany Os
16:45 Kelso Latin Connection (IRE)
17:05 Southwell Gaselee (USA)
17:40 Southwell Tenancy (IRE)
18:15 Southwell Elfine (IRE)
19:00 Sedgefield Schinken Otto (IRE)
19:30 Sedgefield Whats Occurrin
20:00 Sedgefield Sea Venture (IRE)
20:30 Sedgefield The Tiddly Tadpole

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Results for Wednesday 04 May 2011

14:55 Chester Tastahil (IRE) 2nd
15:20 Southwell All Right Now 2nd
15:30 Chester Blue Jack Unpl.
15:55 Southwell Boy The Bell

WON 2.32

16:15 Kelso Our Jim Walked over
16:30 Southwell Fair Passion 3rd
16:40 Chester Gottany Os Unpl.
16:45 Kelso Latin Connection (IRE) N/R
17:05 Southwell Gaselee (USA) Unpl.
17:40 Southwell Tenancy (IRE) Unpl.
18:15 Southwell Elfine (IRE) 2nd
19:00 Sedgefield Schinken Otto (IRE)

WON 4.90

19:30 Sedgefield Whats Occurrin 2nd 3.71
20:00 Sedgefield Sea Venture (IRE) Unpl.
20:30 Sedgefield The Tiddly Tadpole Unpl.

A walk over(!), a non-runner and just two winners. Oh dear.

I think I’ll draw a line under this one as after all it was only an experiment.

However, a lesson has been learned. A selection method that has in the past thrown up the odd long odds winner when applied to just one race each day simply does not work when applied on a daily basis to a multitude of similar race types.

[Hatter]

Never mind DD – early days etc
Race you to the drawing board again

[Author]

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