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Selections for 09 March 2011
17:00 Fontwell Howards Legacy £12.87
17:30 Kempton Brilliant Barca £10.03
14:40 Lingfield Grey Boy £12.42
15:40 Lingfield Fog Cutter £10.67Results for 09 March 2011
17:00 Fontwell Howards Legacy LOST 2.96
17:30 Kempton Brilliant Barca WON 3.20
14:40 Lingfield Grey Boy LOST 5.30
15:40 Lingfield Fog Cutter LOST 3.92Running total: +£162.49
Selections for 10 March 2011
14:40 Carlisle Tigre Daron £10.58
17:20 Carlisle Julia Too £17.74
14:20 Folkestone Kasbadali £10.20
15:25 Folkestone Renard Dirlande £10.39
18:00 Kempton Better Self £13.55
18:30 Kempton Midnight Rider £10.35
19:00 Kempton Galiotto £11.57
17:10 Wincanton Mawsem £10.75Results for 10 March 2011
14:40 Carlisle Tigre Daron LOST 2.00
17:20 Carlisle Julia Too LOST 4.81
14:20 Folkestone Kasbadali LOST 3.97
15:25 Folkestone Renard Dirlande WON 1.55
18:00 Kempton Better Self LOST 2.16
18:30 Kempton Midnight Rider LOST 1.81
19:00 Kempton Galiotto LOST 4.40
17:10 Wincanton Mawsem LOST 2.84Running total: +£83.16
The strike rate for last eight days has been 34% whereas prior to that (12 February – 02 March) it was running at 56%.
The average odds of selections over the last eight days has been 3.38 which would suggest a strike rate of around 30% so the results obtained are not totally unexpected.
Is it possible that the trainers have Cheltenham on their minds because the most recent racing has been such poor quality?
Billy's Outback Shack
Have you noticed a difference with Saturdays results ?
With the usual increased prize money on offer
Or does the system drop to the lowest fare on offer – mainly AWSelections for Friday 11 March 2011
15:55 Ayr Vallani £10.11
17:25 Leicester Fairwood Present £14.85
16:55 Wincanton Oracle Des Mottes £17.68
17:30 Wincanton Shinko Moon £12.00
18:20 Wolverhampton Neytiri £10.64
19:20 Wolverhampton Gottany Os £13.06
19:50 Wolverhampton Erinjay £13.78
20:50 Wolverhampton Port Hill £11.03Pushed for time now but I’ll have a look at the above queries tonight.
I’ve noticed a difference with the number of selections on Saturdays which I think is what you may be referring to. There have been nine selections over the five Saturdays from 12/02/11 which was the day that the current filters were put in place.
The way the method works to generate the advised stake figure that you see beside the selections means that a horse rated 200 running in a £2,000 race will always be given a higher advised stake figure than a horse rated 200 running in a £20,000 race.
The increased prize money generally on offer on Saturdays which you refer to would I guess mean fewer low value races hence fewer horses qualifying as selections.
Hope that makes sense.
Cheers for the reply DD
You’ve obviously got something there with the ratings versus prize money – regardless of the stake issue
Throws up a lot of beach racing at short prices
Was just wondering if there was a tweak you could do to get something in the biggies – better prices etc
Altho i noticed today you had some decent prices
Gutted i left Shinko alone
I dare say I could tweak it to provide more selections at bigger prices but that would almost certainly impact on the strike rate which in turn would lead to longer losing runs.
I did mention recently that the longest losing run had been seven. That was on 21 February. The average price of those losers was 2.67 – that’s a shade over 13/8 in old money.
If you thought seven losers on the trot was bad enough there has been a run of eight consecutive losers starting with the 17:10 at Wincanton on 10 March up to and including the 17:25 at Leicester yesterday afternoon. The average price of these horses was 4.65 which is a touch over 7/2.
I don’t think that too much should be read in to the generally higher odds of yesterday’s selections (average 6.42). I’ve a feeling that it was more than likely a one-off.
Results for Friday 11 March 2011
15:55 Ayr Vallani LOST 5.00
17:25 Leicester Fairwood Present LOST 7.80
16:55 Wincanton Oracle Des Mottes LOST 8.40
17:30 Wincanton Shinko Moon WON 8.17
18:20 Wolverhampton Neytiri LOST 8.40
19:20 Wolverhampton Gottany Os WON 1.62
19:50 Wolverhampton Erinjay WON 1.43
20:50 Wolverhampton Port Hill LOST 10.50Running total: +£113.93
Result for Saturday 12 March 2011
17:35 Ayr Tricksofthetrade LOST 1.76
Running total: +£97.22
Selections for Sunday 13 March 2011
15:50 Market Rasen Gingers Lad £10.32
15:35 Warwick Good Company £20.47
16:40 Warwick Moncadou £17.52Results for Sunday 13 March 2011
15:50 Market Rasen Gingers Lad LOST 6.00
15:35 Warwick Good Company LOST 4.30
16:40 Warwick Moncadou LOST 3.91Running total: +£48.91
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