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Racing Welfare Novice Chase

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  • #1510519
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 199

    Only 4 runners line up but this novice chase has been won by many horses who went on to win at the festival including a gold cup winner in Imperial Commander.

    Protekorat is favourite and is probably the horse to beat here. He won the Carlisle race first time up that the last 2 winners of this ran in and on OR is the rightful favourite. The step up in trip should bring out further improvement and it will be no surprise if he wins and turns out to be a very talented chaser. He jumped well at Carlisle though they are the easiest fences in the country and the Cheltenham fences are much tougher so that is one thing he will need to prove today though no obvious reason to think he won’t pass the test.

    Southfield Stone is talented and won over CD last time. He can make mistakes and can hang and run idle so may not be the most genuine of horses though is not without a chance here. 5 of his 6 wins came on good ground and although he did win a 3 runner race on gd/sft at Musselburgh, his 2 rivals both jumped badly that day so his win there may have flattered him slightly and as a 7yo is probably not open to as much improvement as his 3 rivals and could be vulnerable today and Nichols has never won this race.

    Twiston Davies did win this with Imperial Commander in 2007 who went on to win the Gold Cup. Mossy Fen must be respected as such and has been quite well backed this morning. He is only a 5yo and lacks experience and was outpaced on his chase debut over 3m 1/2f here and would probably prefer a longer trip. With a small field over 2m4 today it could be very tactical which probably wouldn’t suit him though if he were to emulate Imperial Commander and go on to win a Gold Cup then class could get him through though that is a very big if to assume he would be up to that level in the future. He no doubt has plenty more to come and will improve.

    The front 3 in the market all have questions to answer at short odds and I am taking a chance on the outsider PAINT THE DREAM at 20/1.
    In the 12 previous runnings of the race 10 of the winners were aged 6 with a 5yo and a 7yo winning one each. He is the only 6yo in the race so on the age star alone he is the likliest winner. He is the least likeliest winner on OR and is 0/7 over fences but has ran some really good races in defeat and has ability and is still open to improvement.
    He has the most chase experience in the field and has twice ran over the Cheltenham fences when 12th at the festival last year and a gallant 1 1/4 length 2nd to Midnight Shadow last January over these fences. 2m 4 looks his ideal trip and he normally needs his first few races of the season so should be spot on here 3rd time out.
    His sire Brian Boru has a 31% strike rate with his offspring on gd/sft and he could easily outrun his odds today and I won’t be at all surprised if he ends up winning.
    The favourite should be a tough nut to crack but isn’t bullet proof and PAINT THE DREAM looks worth taking a chance on at 20/1 and may cause a shock result here.
    Locally based trainer Fergal O Brien is in great form as well with 9 wins from 40 runners over the last 2 weeks with 22 of the 40 finishing top 3.

    #1510521
    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 3811

    A good case for him Robbo esp stable form, I’m on Southfield Stone but if he isn’t in with a chance I’ll cheer your lad home :good:

    #1510531
    FinalFurlong91
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    • Total Posts 2718

    Put up mossy fen at 7s in my daily lays and plays thread a few days ago

    He completely blew up on chase debut, should hopefully come on for the run

    And gets plenty of weight off protektorat and southfield stone

    #1510532
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 199

    Super jumping from the winner jumped like a cat over those fences. Horse to follow I think.

    The most bizarre commentary of all time with McCoy pretending he was on Protektorat and Fitzgerald pretending he was on Southfield Stone all the way round. Incredibly strange.

    #1510534
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2718

    Mossy fen jumped like a fridge, brushed through the top of half of them

    Been removed from my tracker :negative:

    Winner did it well but not sure hes beat much

    #1510627
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 199

    He may not have beaten much but could easily develop into a 2022 Gold Cup horse. That was only his 2nd chase start and he is only 5 but put up one of the most impressive rounds of jumping of the Cheltenham fences I have ever seen by a horse so inexperienced.

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