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If you’ve not seen the round of jumping yesterday from Identity Thief; go and watch the replay.
Didn’t look too impressive there today really. Arkle winners should be winning that type of race with their head in their chest
I would take the opposite view in that was easily the best two mile novice chase run this season. The runner up is about as good a jumper as you could get and absolutely no pushover. Both could play a significant part in the Arkle, particularly as Ordinary World would be better on quicker ground.
I’ve taken the 50’s each way Ordinary World, and added him 280’s to 300’s. That’ll do for me, and can’t see me having another bet in this.
Not quite convinced by Altior’s jumping. Threw some lovely leaps and then there were some shades of Long Run as his backend got lower. Might just have been fatigue, but I’d like to see him twice more at least and am tempted to be a layer for the moment at 9/4
I’ve taken the 50’s each way Ordinary World, and added him 280’s to 300’s. That’ll do for me, and can’t see me having another bet in this.
You reckon a 122 rated hurdler can compete in the arkle?
Not quite convinced by Altior’s jumping. Threw some lovely leaps and then there were some shades of Long Run as his backend got lower. Might just have been fatigue, but I’d like to see him twice more at least and am tempted to be a layer for the moment at 9/4
Thought it looked a much safer conveyance than thistlecrack joe.
Judge, I’ll wait and see his next outing. Not as athletic as T’crack at first glance, though some nice safe jumps.
I just don’t like to see those backend drops off a conventional jump. Had he stood right off and then ended up dragging his back legs through I wouldn’t be so concerned. But he just could be a bit stiff-backed. Wouldn’t be nearly so concerned as the first time I watched the likes of poor old Simonsig or Garde La Victoire, but I want to reserve judgement until I see a couple more races. They wouldn’t necessarily have to be clear rounds; I’d just like to see him bend his back properly at every fence.
If you’ve not seen the round of jumping yesterday from Identity Thief; go and watch the replay.
‘Identity Thief’ looks a useful recruit to fencing, his form certainly suggests he can reach the top over the bigger obstacles and 7/1 is certainly on the right side .I much prefer the price of Top Notch,33/1 with William Hills and Betfair,his form is on a par with ‘The Thief’ and like one myself I’ve stolen those hefty odds today.Anyone taking 2/1 about ‘Altior’ for this needs their head testing as the horse he beat in the ‘Supreme’ always struck me as the one with more scope for chasing…Min has been quietly backed for this for the past few months,I never got bigger than 8/1 back in July but they are my 2 selections and I wont be backing anything else.I can see the Mullins horse going off Fav for this come March.
I’ve taken the 50’s each way Ordinary World, and added him 280’s to 300’s. That’ll do for me, and can’t see me having another bet in this.
You reckon a 122 rated hurdler can compete in the arkle?
The 122 is already meaningless as on yesterday’s run he is already a stone and a half better over fences. Add in that the ground would definitely not have suited and 50/1 is a big price. If you look back there are horses who were no great shakes as hurdlers but became top class chasers, primarily because they were exceptional jumpers, Remittance Man springs to mind.
If you’ve not seen the round of jumping yesterday from Identity Thief; go and watch the replay.
‘Identity Thief’ looks a useful recruit to fencing, his form certainly suggests he can reach the top over the bigger obstacles and 7/1 is certainly on the right side .I much prefer the price of Top Notch,33/1 with William Hills and Betfair,his form is on a par with ‘The Thief’ and like one myself I’ve stolen those hefty odds today.Anyone taking 2/1 about ‘Altior’ for this needs their head testing as the horse he beat in the ‘Supreme’ always struck me as the one with more scope for chasing…Min has been quietly backed for this for the past few months,I never got bigger than 8/1 back in July but they are my 2 selections and I wont be backing anything else.I can see the Mullins horse going off Fav for this come March.
Top Notch? TAPK has finally lost the plot! Its been a long time coming lol :)
In all seriousness though – I’ve been chipping away at Min myself. I expect he will be the only one capable in putting it up to Altior. Rich Ricci sounds confident and the horse has apparently recovered well from the injury he picked up in the supreme. Has supposedly grown into a chasers build over the summer too.
Altior will be very very hard beat but its very difficult to take 2/1 at this stage. i’d hope to close to that on the day if Min and identity thief turn up unbeaten also.
Hi Wex, yeah, I’d tend to go with stilvi, and not pay too much attention to the hurdles rating. The Arkle isn’t my favourite race by any stretch of the imagination, and as it’s rarely that competitive, it’s ripe to nab a big price here and there. Baily Green was a 121 rated hurdler before running in this, and had the beating of Simonsig in 2013, but for the jockey appearing too hesitant to take the grey on until it was too late.
I’m not saying he’ll win, but at those prices, Ordinary World is very much worth the risk. He represents owners who like runners at The Festival, and can boast an Arkle winner already in Klairon Davis. He’s looked a different prospect over fences, and I’ll be a wee bit disappointed, even at this stage, if he doesn’t line up.
Top Notch? TAPK has finally lost the plot! Its been a long time coming lol
In all seriousness though – I’ve been chipping away at Min myself. I expect he will be the only one capable in putting it up to Altior. Rich Ricci sounds confident and the horse has apparently recovered well from the injury he picked up in the supreme. Has supposedly grown into a chasers build over the summer too.
If I had to have a £100 on one today ‘King Sprinter’ I’d take the 7/1 about Min.I do think Top Notch is over-priced though,he’s on a par with ‘Identity Thief’ who’s a 1/5th those Odds!
I agree on “form” Top Notch appears value at 33/1, Gord. However, ante-post value is not always about ability, likelihood of getting a run for your money is massively important. If only 50/50 about turning up bookies can afford to offer apparently tempting odds. With Henderson hotshot Altior 2/1 and Buveur Dair 14/1 currently a lot shorter, what are the odds Top Notch running?
Identity Theif is not “1/5th the odds”.
Good luck.
Value Is EverythingI would take the opposite view in that was easily the best two mile novice chase run this season. The runner up is about as good a jumper as you could get and absolutely no pushover. Both could play a significant part in the Arkle, particularly as Ordinary World would be better on quicker ground.
I think the proximity of Attribution must cast some doubt over the worth of the form. He was quite hard pushed to beat some out and out trees last time.
Regarding the Arkle, I thought Anibale Fly was one of the most impressive beginners chase winners we’ve seen, although I was bemused by Tony Martin’s post race comments, which I’ve copied from http://www.irishracing.com below:
Following the race, Martin stated “it was very workmanlike – he had plenty done on the flat and schooling and that showed.
“Before we ever ran him, we had the option of point-to-pointing so he had plenty of schooling in him and lucky enough it showed.”
The ‘handicap king’ added “it was grand to get it and great that he jumped well and hopefully he has a bit of a future over fences but I wouldn’t be getting too excited after only scrambling home.
“He does get two-and-a-half (miles) but has enough pace over two and two-and-a-quarter and we’ll get him home and see how he is but I wouldn’t be getting too excited after today.”
For me, his jumping was fast, low and accurate, which is what I want to see in a two mile chaser and he beat a strong field with plenty in hand. He’s not even quoted for the Arkle and judging by Martin’s comments he’d rather try to win a Grand Annual than let this horse take his chance at Grade 1 level.
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