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From what I have heard, which is by no means gospel, this is probably down to a bad batch of vaccines at the McCain yard, and it is a precautionary measure. Horses still being allowed to gallop etc this morning.
That might just be wishful thinking though.
Donald only had one decent day the entire season. That was sometime in November or December when notched something like an across the card four-timer. The very next day horses ran very poorly again. His strike rate right now stands at 4 winners from his last 50 runners which is more than pathetic for such a high profile yard. But ill horses could easily be the answer.
Wolverhampton cancelled on Saturday and British horses have been banned from entering races in Ireland
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/live-all-british-racing-called-off-due-to-equine-flu-outbreak-but-thurles-on/365316As I read the report it says the affected stable had runners at Ayr and Ludlow and that there have been 3 cases identified within the yard not all 3 horses necessarily raced on Wednesday.
Fingers crossed it turns out to be down to a dodgy batch. Shouldn’t take too long to establish that, one way or the other. If not, we could be in for a long spell with no racing. Breeding season too so don’t know whether that’ll be impacted if the movement of horses is limited.
Further details here for those who want to read more:
https://www.aht.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Equiflunet-outbreaks-2019-v2.pdf@ ERL – McCain has endured spells like this ever since the peak years of Overturn and Peddler’s Cross and the departure of the Rooney horses.
He’s not the only one, of course, as the Pipe stable can go weeks without a winner and most horses finishing tamely; the yard has gone a month without a winner and regularly only trains a couple of winners a month these days
The Post reports that there was a flu epidemic in Newmarket in 2003 affecting 1,000 horses but racing carried on as normal. I wonder what the difference is here. A new strain maybe?
A quote from today’s Racing Post
“We had a call from Donald this morning as he wanted to let his owners know of the situation to put them at ease. The horses who raced yesterday, or in recent days, are not the ones who have tested positive. Prior to horses going racing they have all been scoped before going out of the yard.”
If this is correct, then there might be no reason for a shutdown. The only logical thing to do, would be to isolate and test Donald’s horses. I’m just wondering why the news was only made public yesterday and how other yards could be affected, if the statement from above is correct.
If other yards are already infected because their respective horses had contact to McCain’s runners, then we might be talking about a long-term shutdown. But I guess that would be too speculative at the moment.
Problem is if it is a new strain that is resistant to the current vaccine then a new vaccine has to be engineered and tested and given the time that would all take could the BHA in all good consciousness allow racing to resume again before that has been completed – under those conditions Cheltenham & likely even Aintree could be in doubt.
With the best case scenario being just a bad batch of the vaccine an investigation would still have to take place to back track it to where it was made and what caused the issue (also was it replicated in other batches) and also see what other training yards took delivery and then test those other horses that were treated with said vaccine – all of which is very time consuming.
The BHA may have to overly err on the side of caution in making their decision today as containment is the top priority and you can’t run the risk of thinking after just under one day you have all the necessary measures in place to stop this from spreading. I would not be surprised if they came out to say that racing in the UK is suspended indefinitely until further investigations are completed.
Also no guarantee that the horses that were scoped clear are not carrying the virus, it could just be that the symptoms haven’t yet presented themselves.
Also no guarantee that the horses that were scoped clear are not carrying the virus, it could just be that the symptoms haven’t yet presented themselves.
I think that will be the key part to all testing that will take place in the next few days (weeks).
The good thing is in my opinion is that we have winter and that the virus might not be spread as easily as during the summer months. There could be a better chance to get hold of the situation in a shorter period of time than expected. Wolverhampton did the only logical thing in my opinion when canceling Saturdays’s meeting.
Doesnt sound quite as negative now on the prognosis, a mutated strain would be an annoyance but exposure is limited as there now saying the animals sent to the races were not actually the infected batch, although technically they could be carriers, but its ALOT less likely that they will be than if they were the ones infected initially.. hopefully its just a mild disruption!
Wouldn’t the mild winter we have had not of helped in this case though?
I guess you’re right about that, but maybe last weeks cancellations prevented us from a real epidemic.
There is another article concerning stable cleanliness at meetings in general. Just about 2 weeks old:
Now maybe the BHA will take this matter more seriously.
Sensible decision I think.
Even if it is contained in Donald’s yard, it isn’t worth taking the risk until every horse in training has been tested.
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