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Trainers now need to tell the public if there was a valid reason for a horse running poorly on its last start. To stop punters from being “put awayâ€
Value Is EverythingI don’t personally subscribe to the value theory, but do you really think, in all honesty, that the ‘everyday punter’ can be bothered calculating chances (which are individual to everyone anyway) as percentages, when their only real concern is getting a bet on?
When is the last time you heard someone swearing at a virtual jockey only to then turn around to their mate and ask ‘how would one calculate this horse’s odds as a percentage, for one would like to obtain a little value…’?
Those who need (or want) to do it already know how to do it, which is why ‘types’ of punters exist in the first place; some bet without looking at the form, some deliberate for hours using statistics, trends and percentages.
Just the way it is.
Even if punters do not want to work out a full 100% book, it would still help if they knew the table.
To be able to look at a bookies board and instantly see those prices as percentages helps me enormously.If a punter wants to make a profit, knowing the table is almost essential.
What punter does not want to make a profit.The trouble is many punters who are not interested in "value" do not neccersarily realise what "true value" really is.
As I said it was many years in to my gambling (investing) before I found out about it.
Don’t the racing media have a responsibly to tell the punters about it?
Value Is Everything
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Username: Gingertipster
Number of posts: 1
Subject: How to win at horseracing.Mmmmmmmmm!
Trainers now need to tell the public if there was a valid reason for a horse running poorly on its last start. To stop punters from being “put awayâ€
A thoughtful contribution by Ginger – an appreciation of value is a cornerstone of long term profit in horses – although, as LetsGR says, most punters can’t be mithered. ( I never could)
Ginge…Surely the interpretation of what constitutes (good) value is subjective and your comment that "If a punter wants to make a profit, knowing the table is almost essential." is misguided. I often work out the overround on a market whilst the prices are on screen; but why should the respective percentage market figure of a certain horse really make any difference ? How do you quantify "value" ? To me its purely physiological.
A very good idea to think of odds in terms of chance as – for the novice at any rate – a percentage such as a 42% ‘chance of winning’ may paint a clearer mental picture of ‘value’ than 11/8 and the other quaint-but-nice fractions.
And how many, however experienced, tend to subconciously shy away from Evens as it’s a ‘short’ price when in fact it means the horse has only a 50% chance of winning: a fifty-fifty chance in common parlance
11/10 48% chance ‘probably won’t win’
10/11 52% chance ‘probably will win’My tissue-generating spreadsheet has columns for round-book chance and 5% over-broke (to offset commission) Betfair decimals. Don’t bother with traditional odds.
I rather think that like bookmakers who can sum a round book or to a pre-determined over-round instinctively, experienced bettors working with traditional odds can do pretty much the same. It’s not unlike darts players knowing the combinations needed for a finish: experience rather than necessarily any gift for quick mental arithmetic.
Complete and utter nonsense, Gingerspammer, the racing media have no such responsibility and my guess is your precious ‘value’ would be all the more difficult to come by if every punter in the land approached the game in the same way. The beauty of punting is that few people do have the same approach, meaning that we all get out of it what we want to.
There are no hard rules I’m afraid.
As has been said, value is purely subjective and a horse that might be a 7/2 chance in one person’s eyes is a 5/1 chance in yours. So, when they avail themselves of the 4/1 and you sit back without investing, whose the fool? By your own definition you haven’t seen any value, yet the other guy is coining it in on the same horse. Surely that is the point of punting…backing winners?
Do you think that, because you reckon a horse to have a better chance than its odds would indicate (odds actually have nothing to do with the horse’s chance, as they’re only a representation of yet another opinion) your chances of success suddenly improve if you plunge in? Do you also subscribe to the idea that, even if you think horse A is the most likely winner you’d rather back horse B because you believe it to represent ‘value’?
The only way ‘value’ can prove profitable, or at least beneficial, is if it deters you from backing horses you think will win, but are underpriced in your view i.e. the risk-to-reward ratio is too high. This means that you sit the race out and claim that ‘you’re fine’ when your underpriced fancy romps home and leaves your bank balance otherwise unchanged.
On the other hand of course you could have backed horse B, a horse you didn’t fancy over horse A using all of the information to hand (form, ground, race conditions and so on), but was available at half-a-point more than you expected. It was no more likely to win from an analytical point of view…and it didn’t…the only difference now is that your bank has been significantly reduced by ‘value’ which told you to back a horse your brain said wouldn’t win.
But, each to their own. I’ll proceed backing horses I think will win, which is all we’re here to do, and you carry on looking for ‘value’.
Gingertipster may be an unfortunate moniker, not exactly likely to instill confidence in his motives for posting, but give the guy a chance.
Thought he raised some interesting points meself
The value approach to betting is the most overrated method IMO. To gain an edge by finding "value", the edge must be replayed thousands and thousands of times (think how a Casino wins from a Roulette wheel) and the average punter doesn’t bet enough times over the course of a year (or even 10 years) for the "value" found to outweigh the "fortune" aspect of horse-racing.
Yes LetsGetRacing what a punter thinks is value is subjective, but my point is the percentage of winners a punter needs to win at each price is not subjective. A punter needs more than 16.67% of his bets at 5/1 to win, that is not opinion, that is a fact.
And yes I would watch the horse with the best chance of winning go in if I thought it was poor value. Probably having backed a 20/1 shot against it, if I thought it had a better than 4.76% chance.
A punter can not win if he does not get value. That is a fact, not an opinion.
If you do not win less than 20% of your bets at 4/1 you will lose, 25% 3/1, 2.94% 33/1etc. That is not opinion that is fact.
What a punter thinks is a 20% 4/1 shot, that is opinion.
If you are content to have a 33% strike rate on your bets at 7/4 then carry on ignoring value. I would rather have a 6% strike rate on my 25/1 shots.To set peoples minds at rest I do not sell tips, the ones I have given on other forums are for free.
Gingertipster is just a name that sounds good.
Value Is EverythingGinge…Surely the interpretation of what constitutes (good) value is subjective and your comment that "If a punter wants to make a profit, knowing the table is almost essential." is misguided. I often work out the overround on a market whilst the prices are on screen; but why should the respective percentage market figure of a certain horse really make any difference ? How do you quantify "value" ? To me its purely physiological.
Knowing the table allows you to find value an awful lot easier. Knowing the percentage of bets you have to win at each price. As said, you need to win 16.67% of your bets at 5/1 to make a profit. Therefore, if you work out that a horse has (in your opinion) say a 17% chance of winning, then it is a good bet at bigger than 5/1, a poor bet at less than 5/1. Without knowing the percentage you might end up backing it at 4/1 or not backing it at 6/1. If you are a good judge, at the end of the year you have won more than 16.67% of your bets at 5/1 and a profit is made.
Value Is EverythingI’m with LGR on this…………..the minute you stop using your own judgment and start looking at value prices instead of how a horse quickens up, jumps a fence or looks in the paddock then basically you are goosed.
I am damn sure I wouldn’t need Big Mac or Tam the Tipster to tell me that Kauto was the best value of the decade for the King George at 5/6 and neither would half the nation. Unfortunately the bookies don’t mess up like that too often or we would all be rich.
When a horse comes on the scene and you think he’s the best thing since slice bread you wait till he runs again and stick your lot on him………he wins out the park and you feel great because you were proved right.
A horse runs that you think should be 9/1 but he’s 12/1 and you bet him……..the 2 market leaders are Kauto Star and Denman and your horse is beaten a distance but you backed him because he was 2 points better than you thought he should be………..that’s real bright,,,,,,,,go for it Ginger knock yourself out………….your idea has got more holes in it than a second hand dartboard.
My advise to any young person who wants to make money from betting will out do any system in the world……….Use your TV and the internet websites where you can sit and watch hours upon hours of racing…..something that wasn’t available in the past……watch every race you can and not just the winners…….learn yourself how to spot the ones that are having a quite one……………..watch watch watch and you will begin to learn to spot good horses from bad……….horses who look green………genuine and not….fast and slow etc etc…that is all the information you will ever need……….when you get it right once you will get it right 100 times. Sure you will mess up but who doesn’t in racing.
The concept of ‘value’ is only really relevant if your tissue is consistently better than the odds available. Certainly wouldn’t knock it as rubbish.
I’ve heard this value debate for years now. It is interesting, but not totally clear-cut, imo.
The only thing factual about it can be seen only in hindsight. Ginge says that, if we are a good judge, then, we’ll make a profit at the end of the year.I expect that’s true, and I suppose we could claim to have found value. it could be that we got lucky, too.
Here’s where I’d appreciate a bit of help;
If a punter has 52 bets a year ( one a week) and one of them wins at 100/1,
has he found value, or, was he lucky, or, was he daft to have backed the 51 losers, or what?
The percentages are unclear to me, I must admit.Sean Rua.
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