Queen Mother Champion Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase

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  • #826387
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Unfortunately Irish Saint is faced with the huge barrier that is VAUTOUR, and I expect that one to be competing with Don Poli for fav in the 2016 Gold Cup

    I think Vautour has a lot to do to be in the same region of Gold Cup betting as Don Poli. Stamina has to be a big enough question mark for a Supreme Novices winner for starters.

    I reckon Vautour is short enough for tomorrow’s JLT at around 7/4-2/1 based on what he has actually done in his chasing career to date. Fair do’s he probably just had an off day when beaten by Clarcam but he remains a horse of potential for now and his odds are more to do with last year’s form and the fact that he’s trained by Willie Mullins.

    Should Vautour blow his field away tomorrow it still leaves the stamina question and considering they were talking Arkle and Champion Hurdle with him at the start of the year I am not convinced that he’s really going to end up a Gold Cup horse.

    I suspect that he runs in the JLT because they knew Un De Sceaux was one they didn’t want to take on with Vautour. I have great respect for Vautour and he was one of my first picks for the Ten To Follow this season. However, I can’t say he has done what I had hoped he would so far and my confidence that he could win the JLT waned a while ago.

    Only a couple of firms quote Vautour for the Gold Cup next year. One goes 25/1, which I think is more realistic than the, in my mind, ridiculous quote of 12/1, at a stage where this year’s JLT and Gold Cup have yet to be run.

    He’s not for me but I wish you well if you are on at the 25/1 Joe.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #826524
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    Un De Sceaux ran in the Arkle because:
    (a) He is not as good at 2m5f than he is at 2m; where as Vautour is and.
    (b) Un De Sceaux is in all probability a better horse than Vautour.

    At Cheltenham Willie Mullins runs his best horses in different races. Say Vautour proves exceptional tomorrow, he will have proved exceptional at the intermediate distance. Un De Sceaux proved himself top class at 2 miles. Don Poli at 3 miles, improving at that trip. Therefore, (if they all remain fit) it is pretty obvious Un De Sceaux will be going for the 2016 Champion Chase, Gigginstown’s Don Poli the Gold Cup and Rich Richie’s Vautour Ryanair. It’s also possible owner companion Djackadam might prove top class in this year’s Gold Cup, so be his target next year too. (Although if not staying it could be the opposite) If Vautpour is impressive tomorrow expect what looks generous ante-post Gold Cup odds, purely because it is imo highly unlikely Vautour’s target will be Gold Cup unless things go wrong with others. :good:

    value is everything
    #827719
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    I’m expecting Vautour to be his most impressive winner of the meeting and the best long term prospect. I doubt the Gold Cup trip will hold any fears.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #827762
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I’m expecting Vautour to be his most impressive winner of the meeting and the best long term prospect. I doubt the Gold Cup trip will hold any fears.

    Ptit Zig is certainly weak in the betting today. The connections are certainly very bullish regarding Vautour today and they may well be right.

    For me, regardless of how well Vautour wins today, it’s a totally different test then going up against a horse in Don Poli, who keeps grinding and finding. I just can’t see it, much as I didn’t see The New One doing it either. One never knows in this game though Joe.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #827952
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    Very true, Steve. I’ve got Don Poli for next year at big prices and the same with Vautour: I think one of the two will win it.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #828095
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Well done Joe, you’ve got a couple of nailing bets there now after what has been a luckless season for you in places.

    Breathtaking performance there and finally looked like the horse who won the Supreme in great style last year.

    His jumping was terrific and natural looking today.

    Ptit Zig looked out of his depth today, the jumping was always more deliberate looking and he had one really bad mistake but he just looked miles away from being the horse Paul Nicholls had been slightly bullish about as an outside bet for the King George.

    It was all about one horse and you were spot on Joe, hat’s off to your judgement of the horse.

    The only thing I can say that is I can’t remember two horses being 4/1 jt Fav for the Gold Cup before this year’s renewal has been run? That seems crazy to me.

    Vautour is some horse though.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #828098
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5734

    Thanks, Steve. Just glad to be around to see such a display at a festival. Stunning. Ears pricked going up the hill, won with a ton in hand. What a horse, what a yard, what a very lucky owner

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #828117
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    I’m expecting Vautour to be his most impressive winner of the meeting and the best long term prospect. I doubt the Gold Cup trip will hold any fears.

    As Steve says, spot on there Joe with Vautour so impressive. Although I have my doubts about the Gold Cup given temperament. King George yes, Gold Cup at the mo no.

    value is everything
    #828123
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Thanks, Steve. Just glad to be around to see such a display at a festival. Stunning. Ears pricked going up the hill, won with a ton in hand. What a horse, what a yard, what a very lucky owner

    The betting side is secondary really, it’s all about witnessing something special. Close finishes are exciting but when you see one win like that it lives with you for decades.

    The owner seems excited about Djakadam for tomorrow and the money is coming for him, with as low as 6/1 quoted. He’s in my Ten To Follow but he was 33/1 at that stage as a dark horse and even I can’t see any value at single figures after what looked a dire Thyestes run in atrocious conditions.

    Maybe, as you say, the owner’s lucky spell is set to keep rolling.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #861213
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 179

    Re my theory Dodging Bullets not winning the QM because he was flat bred…I think I need another theory.

    “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” …Yogi Berra.

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