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With a few minor exceptions, the flat season has been a rather uninspiring spectacle, so I’m going to follow Fist and start a thread on a Festival Championship race.
I’m not convinced Master Minded gave his true running in March and I’m far from convinced he’s OTT. A special prize for anyone who cites his nationality as the main reason for his poor showing and inevitable decline.
Many have been saying the same thing about Kauto Star for the past two years!!
One month prior to his Cheltenham eclipse, Master Minded was ultra-impressive when winning his second Game Spirit. Are we to believe that his ability was on the wane in a little over four weeks?
Master Minded suffered a cracked rib at Cheltenham in November of last year and was subsequently off the track until Newbury in February. Is it possible he ‘bounced’ in the Champion Chase?
John Francome made an interesting point in the aftermath of the race. He was of the opinion that perhaps Master Minded can only produce the level of performance we witnessed in the Game Spirit once every so often.
It will be interesting to see if Paul Nicholls keeps him fresh for Cheltenham at this stage of his career – much like he does with Kauto Star.
Whatever the reason for his below-par effort in March, I think 6/1 is a fairly generous price.
Sizing Europe proved many doubters wrong with a flawless performance in the Arkle before a perfectly respectable start to life ouside novice company when third at Punchestown.
A best-priced 7/1 doesn’t stand out at this very early stage, but he jumps for fun, clearly loves Cheltenham and I, like the market indicates, rate him a major contender next year.
If Big Zeb turns up in the same form as he did this year he’ll be very tough to beat. For a horse who received plenty of stick for his sometimes brain-dead jumping it was a joy to watch him soar around Prestbury Park.
Forpady will be thereabouts again but will inevitably find one or two too good. Sizing Europe cruised around in the Arkle and arguably was value for more than the winning distance. I’m convinced Captain Cee Bee is a better horse but one thing he’s not is a better jumper. If he was mine I’d go for the Champion Hurdle.
Right now I’d say Big Zeb holds all the aces.
If Big Zeb turns up in the same form as he did this year he’ll be very tough to beat. For a horse who received plenty of stick for his sometimes brain-dead jumping it was a joy to watch him soar around Prestbury Park.
Forpady will be thereabouts again but will inevitably find one or two too good. Sizing Europe cruised around in the Arkle and arguably was value for more than the winning distance. I’m convinced Captain Cee Bee is a better horse but one thing he’s not is a better jumper. If he was mine I’d go for the Champion Hurdle.
Right now I’d say Big Zeb holds all the aces.
I think Forpaddy will be stepped up in trip, maybe aimed at the Gold Cup.
JohnJ
Master Minded has just had the wind operation which every horse down in Ditcheat seems to have at some point in his career! I’m expecting a big comeback from him.
Masterminded now down to 5/1 looks to be the value.
I can see him having 2 or 3 races prior to Cheltenham.
I think Paul Nicholls will start him off with a soft race to rebuild his confidence, followed by the Tingle Creek. The opposition in the Tingle Creek is likely to include Big Zeb and given some cut in the ground I can see Masterminded winning easily with his Cheltenham price likely to be 5/2 or less. After Cheltenham maybe the Victor Chandler then a good break before Cheltenham.I could see P Nicholls giving Master Minded the minimum amount of runs possible before Cheltenham. He can get them ready at home just as well as on the track and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tingle Creek then straight to Cheltenham type preparation….
I’m not convinced
Master Minded
gave his true running in March and I’m far from convinced he’s OTT. A special prize for anyone who cites his nationality as the main reason for his poor showing and inevitable decline.
Many have been saying the same thing about Kauto Star for the past two years!!
One month prior to his Cheltenham eclipse, Master Minded was ultra-impressive when winning his second Game Spirit. Are we to believe that his ability was on the wane in a little over four weeks?
Master Minded suffered a cracked rib at Cheltenham in November of last year and was subsequently off the track until Newbury in February. Is it possible he ‘bounced’ in the Champion Chase?
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Hi Bos’..re the nationality thing..I will take the bait
. Surely Kauto is the exception that proves the rule. Their will always be outliers in any distribution of statistics…Kauto is one such, the fact he is a Champion for the ages makes his longevity more visible but not more common, I think. The overall statistics on French breds are compelling. Secondly I don’t think he (MM) was ‘ultra impressive’ at Newbury, his jumping up the straight when he ballooned every fence till he got to the last then panicked when his stride was wrong indicated that he was still feeling the rib injury for me. Physically or psychologically or maybe both.
He wouldnt be my idea of value at 5/1
Hmmm…
Al Capone II, Alarm Call, Or Jack, First Gold, Edredon Bleu, The Fellow, Granit d’Estruval, Tango Royal, Sabin du Loir, Katarino, Madison du Berlais, Mely Moss, Mon Mome, Sleeping Night, Cyfor Malta…
No shortage of French-bred "outliers" that do retain their form over the years. I think it’s worth considering a horse’s chances of holding its form for another season with this in mind.
I hope Henderson and connections consider Long Run for this. If Masterminded isn’t on top of his game then I think the rest are all short of top class and beatable.
It’s clearly too early for the Gold Cup and why win the Ryanair when the QM is there for the taking?Then again he’s French so maybe he’s had enough already.
If Big Zeb turns up in the same form as he did this year he’ll be very tough to beat. For a horse who received plenty of stick for his sometimes brain-dead jumping it was a joy to watch him soar around Prestbury Park.
Forpady will be thereabouts again but will inevitably find one or two too good. Sizing Europe cruised around in the Arkle and arguably was value for more than the winning distance. I’m convinced Captain Cee Bee is a better horse but one thing he’s not is a better jumper. If he was mine I’d go for the Champion Hurdle.
Right now I’d say Big Zeb holds all the aces.
I think Forpaddy will be stepped up in trip, maybe aimed at the Gold Cup.
JohnJ
Tom Cooper said they would consider a crack at the King George probably because the track would be ideal to test his stamina without over taxing him. Depends on connections decision though.
If Master Minded is 100% fit, i think he will bounce back from this years loss and win.
Tataniano reminded me a bit of Azertyuiop last season with his fast accurate jumping from the front. He was really impressive on his last start at Aintree and also earlier in the season he jumped very well around Cheltenham. I think he’ll be a major player in the 2m division and at around 8-1 he’s good value at this stage for the Champion Chase.
Ok so this is my first post on here so go easy with me! Have been reading the forum for a number of years now and thought id add my 2 pennys worth.
What’s the general vibe about the QMCC this time around. Probably my favourite race of the festival and will be interested to see how the 2m scene goes this year.
Big Zeb got his jumping together last year and i suppose he’s the one to beat. Will he continue to improve?
Master Minded – Will we see a return to the type of form shown a few years back? Still a young horse remember.
How good is Captain Cee Bee? Does anyone know?
Which of the decent 2m novices will stick at this distance? Mad Max, Somersby and Sizing Europe sound like they will be going over further.
…and finally will PN leave old Twisty at home this year, surely he’s got the hint by now!
OLAS
Tataniano has been tipped up by two pundits so far as PN’s horse to follow this year. I’m not one for following the Nicholls’ horses blindly but, in this case, I think I will.
Alright OLAS, I’ll try make a prediction!
Captain Cee Bee to lead home Big Zeb and Zaarito in an Irish 1-2-3!
(Que laughter…
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