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Bosranic
For much of his career, Well Chief has been ridden as he was today, stalking the pace for most of the race, and only getting competitive toward the end of his races. Also, he returned after injury previously (possibly the same one?) to record a 161 RPR also after a 2 year break.
Given that, the fact he is still only 10yo, and whom he is trained by, it might be wrong to assume his absence was any bar to a decent performance today?Well Chief was ridden, as always, from the rear, but he wasn’t knocked about too much and didn’t have the match shapness to maintain his effort two out, where he was caught flat-footed.
Well Chief is certainly in the twilight of his career as a 10YO, so I wouldn’t be quick to use the term ‘still only’. He had time on his side after the first injury, but I can’t see him progressing from here.
A very good performance from Well Chief today, but I find it hard to believe he’s a good as he was.
My point is that Master Minded can only beat what is there, but just as easily as I could rate Well Chief up to his best you are quick to believe that every horse that Master Minded beats is a complete mug.
VPU ran below form in last years race for example, on what basis though? I dont know how anyone who watched that race could have come to that conclusion.
My point is that Master Minded can only beat what is there, but just as easily as I could rate Well Chief up to his best you are quick to believe that every horse that Master Minded beats is a complete mug.
VPU ran below form in last years race for example, on what basis though? I dont know how anyone who watched that race could have come to that conclusion.
Its obvious. If Voy Por ran to his best then Master Minded is a freak 186 horse. There has been no other performance anywhere, ever by Master Minded that suggests he is a better horse than around 175.
Last years race was a funny one, Tamarinbleu went off at a stupid pace such so that he couldn’t lead for long Twist Magic (as today) didn’t want to know, the others were way out of their depth. Voy Por Ustedes was well clear of them but he didn’t need to run to form to be. We saw the real Voy Por Ustedes at Aintree soon after.
Its a bit like Madison Du Berlais run at Kempton where he beat Denman. If you take Denman’s run literally you could have Madison rated in the 180’s – 190’s. The only difference is we KNOW that Denman has had his problem so there is a ready made excuse whereas there wasn’t for Voy Por last season.
If you are going to rate a horse on one performance which looks out of this world then you are going to rate Hawk Wing 135, Master Minded 186, Madison Du Berlais 190 etc when in reality nothing else they’ve ever done suggests that those ratings are feasible. Those horses have benefitted from conditions that make their supriority look much better than it really is.
Madison may win the Gold Cup on Friday and put up a performance that backs him up as a superstar but I wouldn’t bet on him doing it would you?
I know it seems as though myself and one or two others are unfairly criticising Master Minded but that isn’t the intention certainly not on my part, just taking a realistic nd objective view rather than listenning to comments and getting swept away with the hype.
I find most of these discussions fruitless. I tend to give horses running in important races the benefit of the doubt, despite what may have been thought of them previously.
On the Flat, we have Coolmore and Godolphin going hammer and tongs, trying to produce the best horses.
Over the jumps we have had a huge import of French horses, plus all the Flat castoffs. We have owners such as Smith, McManus, Hemmings, Ogden and the Stewart family outlaying hundreds of thousands of euros on new stock. [edit: apologies; left out Mr & Mrs Wylie.]
Horse A is no good because it got beat by Horse B.
Horse B is no good anyway.Insert your own As and Bs.
Air Force One and Madison Du Berlais is a good start.I’ve been tending to assume that they are both better than other people assume.
A rating is a mathematical representation of what a horse has achieved in a given race.
A horse isnt always in the same form, and doesnt always have conditions in his favour (a la Master Minded today), so when horses run these incredible performances, as with hawkwing, you get the people who dont really understand what a rating is, who then expect the horse to do that week in, week out to justify why they got it in the first place.
A rating of 186 for last years cheltenham win would merely be a reflection of what he achieved last year at cheltenham, on that ground, at that pace, on that day. He has never been in another race like that so its hard to expect him to have the chance to run to that rating again, pulling 18 or 19 lengths clear of a 170ish rated champion hurdler is a bit harder, when you are running on better ground, or riding on a sharper track.
In case you havent noticed yet Master Minded is a freak horse.
Ratings are all good and well, but jump racing is about who you love more and in this case Moscow Flyer and Well Chief are about 30 lengths clear of Master Minded!
Without Master Minded, Well Chief was a 2 lengths winner and if MM had not been around and people would probably be singing his praises saying he was back to his very best.
Sorry Aristo, but the second part of that statement in totally bogus. Had Master Minded not been in today’s race and everything else had panned out exactly the same, anyone saying Well Chief was "back to his best" would be laughed out the room, by me if no one else.
If you are trying to tell me had Well Chief at his best was as good as this horse then "There’s the door or pick a window"
This Master Minded fellow settled the race in a matter of 5 strides when Ruby asked him to go. Never put a foot wrong and Ruby reckons he wasn’t quite himself.
Certainly didn’t look as impressive as his previous performance but as the man said they can all have an off day.
This horse made VPU look like a selling plater and he’s many people’s banker for the Ryanair.
When I sdaid VPU was a bad QMCC winner I got dogs abuse from some people. Some of the same people are now saying MM is overrated.
Fickle lot on here at times
A rating is a mathematical representation of what a horse has achieved in a given race.
A horse isnt always in the same form, and doesnt always have conditions in his favour (a la Master Minded today), so when horses run these incredible performances, as with hawkwing, you get the people who dont really understand what a rating is, who then expect the horse to do that week in, week out to justify why they got it in the first place.
A rating of 186 for last years cheltenham win would merely be a reflection of what he achieved last year at cheltenham, on that ground, at that pace, on that day. He has never been in another race like that so its hard to expect him to have the chance to run to that rating again, pulling 18 or 19 lengths clear of a 170ish rated champion hurdler is a bit harder, when you are running on better ground, or riding on a sharper track.
In case you havent noticed yet Master Minded is a freak horse.
I think Master Minded has something of a similar problem to Moscow in that before Azertioup and Well Chief, he didnt appear to be beating that much and I didnt rate him as being a great. In fact he was replaced for favourtism for the champion one year without having done a whole lot wrong. In fact because he ever only did enough to beat the opposition…often absurdly so, I think it probably allowed him to have many years at the top.
Perhaps today, we saw MM getting a bit cute also. Why bother beating horses by distance, when you can do just enough. EIther way, he is a victim of being so impressive last year.
I think these comparisons across generations between two great horses is nearly impossible. Both had there strenghts and few "but different" weaknesses. Who cares about which is better? I am agnostic on the subject.
SHL
If people want to use Well Chief as a marker than fair enough.
But use the WC we see before us – the horse who was 2nd/3rd to Moscow and 2nd to Master Minded – you either take him as he is (retaining full ability, he’s only 10 after all) or don’t.
Personally I’m just delighted to see him back on the track, he’s a gorgeous horse and it won’t change my view of either Moscow or Master Minded
I just watched the QMCC back again, and the ground has clearly made a big difference this year.
Last year MM and VPU were pulling clear of the field before they even started coming down the hill, between round about the 2nd last and the turn Master minded had accelerated away from VPU to the extent of about 10 lengths before ruby had even kicked for home and was pulling further clear with every stride. That was the most impressive I have ever seen a horse moving and jumping in a NH race ever.
This year however, because the surface was much quicker, briareus, petit robin and well chief were all still with him at the turn and reasonably full of running. Ruby kicked for home at pretty much the same point as he did last year, but this time he was pulling clear of horses who had ground in their favour and were full of running, that IMO stamps it as a good performance, because it shows his adaptability.
There can be no doubt that last years performance was the more impressive but that was a horse with everything up his street on the day, completely outclassing the rest who just cant even come close to matching him on those conditions, but IMO this years race was a mile away from last years, and where some may look to draw negatives from todays win, I think he has proved that on any ground at 2 miles, he is unstoppable.
The only thing which he really has to prove to me is that last years defeat at aintree was a fluke and I’d like to see him have another crack at it, hopefully on gd-sft as he seems better actioned on gd-sft and theres less chance he’ll come away injured.
I just watched the QMCC back again, and the ground has clearly made a big difference this year.
Last year MM and VPU were pulling clear of the field before they even started coming down the hill, between round about the 2nd last and the turn Master minded had accelerated away from VPU to the extent of about 10 lengths before ruby had even kicked for home and was pulling further clear with every stride. That was the most impressive I have ever seen a horse moving and jumping in a NH race ever.
This year however, because the surface was much quicker, briareus, petit robin and well chief were all still with him at the turn and reasonably full of running. Ruby kicked for home at pretty much the same point as he did last year, but this time he was pulling clear of horses who had ground in their favour and were full of running, that IMO stamps it as a good performance, because it shows his adaptability.
There can be no doubt that last years performance was the more impressive but that was a horse with everything up his street on the day, completely outclassing the rest who just cant even come close to matching him on those conditions, but IMO this years race was a mile away from last years, and where some may look to draw negatives from todays win, I think he has proved that on any ground at 2 miles, he is unstoppable.
The only thing which he really has to prove to me is that last years defeat at aintree was a fluke and I’d like to see him have another crack at it, hopefully on gd-sft as he seems better actioned on gd-sft and theres less chance he’ll come away injured.
- Total Posts 17716
Bulwark
You cannot keep making wild assumptions to make your theories fit, and there is little or no concrete evidence to support your stance that the ground was much faster this year.
The going stick reading for last year’s QMCC was 7.4, this year a slower 6.8. The RP have an identical going allowance for both as 0.78 secs per furlong. This years race was run 4.3 seconds slower than last years, none of which lends any support to your view.
I do though sympathise with your view that MM’s 2008 win was an outstanding performance, though the evidence of both the eyes and the clock suggest this year’s was some way below it. Those who denigrate MM’s win from last season might also care to study the evidence of the clock, which shows his win was every bit as imperious as it seemed. In thrashing VPU by 19l, he ran a s/f of 185, ( VPU himself ran a figure within 6lbs of his highest ever achieved at 2m), certainly the highest of the 08 festival, and probably the highest ever recorded in recent times ( 7 points higher than even Denman’s outstanding performance). This year, though again the fastest race run so far at the festival, he ran a 161, which supports the view he wasn’t in the same form.
Maybe those who decry his 08 win as not nearly as impressive as it seems would care to explain how MM ran – on the clock – much the outstanding time of last year’s festival, or for that matter, most others in recent times, and absolutely trouncing a gd1 horse with an OR of 169, who ran close to his best ever previous perfromance?You cannot keep making wild assumptions to make your theories fit, and there is little or no concrete evidence to support your stance that the ground was much faster this year.
The going stick reading for last year’s QMCC was 7.4, this year a slower 6.8. The RP have an identical going allowance for both as 0.78 secs per furlong. This years race was run 4.3 seconds slower than last years, none of which lends any support to your view.Theres no assumption about it reet, I watched back tuesdays racing before yesterdays racing, and the way the horses were projecting themselves along on the top of the ground, I swiftly came to the conclusion that there was absolutely no way whatsoever that the going description of gd-sft/soft in places was in anyway even close to accurate, because horses just dont move like that on that sort of ground. then bearing in mind that the ground may have been good I reviewed all the results again for tuesday and everything made sense. Then watched the races once again and everything made even more sense.
Then I decided to pick for good ground yesterday, and hit the winner in the first, picked the nitingale and diamond harry in the next who just simply werent good enough, but ran as well as can be expected, then went for massinis maguire in the next who finished third. Then in master mindeds race there was quite a few to choose from who would have liked good and but for briareus falling they would have been 2,3,4. Then was on dancing tornado in the next and although ridden to have no chance he still went well and finished 8th (would have been in the money with a better ride). Then Ski Sunday was 2nd to Silk Affair. Had no luck in the bumper but most of those who I would have had down as being better ground sorts were huge prices and unfancied, so that race was inconclusive. Overall though every race made sense on the second day where it made none on the first, when I thought hteground was soft.
The time of this years Champ Chase, compared with last years is absolutely meaningless in the context of reading the ground, because last year most of the field (a better field than todays IMO) were beaten some distance from home and this year every half reasonable good ground horse was still in with a chance at the turn, where last year at the same point there was about 10 lengths back to VPU and those behind that were keeping F1 safe breaking distances. Now if the ground was indeed slower today, but the time only 4 secs slower do you really think the others would be seeing out the trip that much better? It is also worth thinking about on what ground master mindeds last below par effort came…
So heres the facts
Good ground horses go well today.
Master Minded, whose last below par run was on good ground at aintree last year, runs below par.
The finish is pretty bunched compared to last years lamp post spacings, in a time which isnt that much slower.
The ground is slower than last year?
Yet another result that is easily explainable by good ground, it may be worth rewatching how the horses have been moving over the last couple days, aswell as how the races have been finished with relevance to pace and race positioning. And I think you’ll be throwing the clock and stick info out the window.
There is no doubt in my mind that the ground has been good or thereabouts for the last two days, but cant be sure what it is for tomorrow as think they are moving onto the watered track tomorrow. Have went in the hope of the better side of good soft tomorrow and will see. Simon Claisse said in the run up to the festival that he wanted ground on the easier side of good, and Im pretty sure hes got that (for the first couple of days at least).
I’m probably talking garbage!!!
i don’t understand this NH game but what exactly has MM beaten apart from VPU who has inclined to have a few not so good uns. Theres nothing special on the clock, never really been asked to dig deep and battle, what if the race is not run to suit and he has to battle. All that said the oppo is not that strong but give the hype a rest and as for these ratings well, we’ve all seen horses with wonderfull ratings before. Should win but i hope something makes a race of it for the viewers.
I don’t disagree with you to an extent. Master Minded has no opposition of any quality to beat. Regardless of what anyone says Voy Por didn’t run his race in last years Champion Chase and other than him Master Minded has beaten nothing that is a genuine Grade 1 horse. Thats why I don’t class him as automatically superior to Moscow Flyer who had Azertyuiop and an at peak Well Chief to contend with.
That said Master Minded can do nothing more than slam his second rate opposition.
After VPU again today is his form reliable enough, the first race was nearly 2 seconds faster and the ground must have been drying out. When MM does a biggy on the clock i’ll believe the MM hype.
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UN
Those who denigrate MM’s win from last season might also care to study the evidence of the clock, which shows his win was every bit as imperious as it seemed. In thrashing VPU by 19l, he ran a s/f of 185, ( VPU himself ran a figure within 6lbs of his highest ever achieved at 2m), certainly the highest of the 08 festival, and probably the highest ever recorded in recent times ( 7 points higher than even Denman’s outstanding performance).
UN
Those who denigrate MM’s win from last season might also care to study the evidence of the clock, which shows his win was every bit as imperious as it seemed. In thrashing VPU by 19l, he ran a s/f of 185, ( VPU himself ran a figure within 6lbs of his highest ever achieved at 2m), certainly the highest of the 08 festival, and probably the highest ever recorded in recent times ( 7 points higher than even Denman’s outstanding performance).
I’m a bit thick, RH cos when i see
VPU clock 353.88same CD and official l going
for 159 &
MM clock 355.80 for a 185 i naturally presume someone’s not very good at maths???????????- Total Posts 17716
Not thick UN; just from a different planet – if you accept official going as a basis for your views.
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