- This topic has 149 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Bulwark that is all your opinion. Its far from fact, according to many watchers its incorrect to call Henry "the best miler around" and even the world ratings boys have them levels.
Why do horses who rely on fast ground always seem to generally higher rated than horses who need cut? I remember Kieron Fallon saying after George Washington lost in heavy ground to Araafa, "they don’t go on both extremes". Some weeks later Araafa won the SJP well on firm going.
Why do horses who rely on fast ground always seem to generally higher rated than horses who need cut? I remember Kieron Fallon saying after George Washington lost in heavy ground to Araafa, "they don’t go on both extremes". Some weeks later Araafa won the SJP well on firm going.
Who would you say was better PC? Araafa came back and beat a very average field in the SJP. George Washington, by my recollection still beat all bar araafa home at the curragh. He was IMO by far the best horse of the pair. But I think you have picked out two very good examples there, because when your horse goes on ground that isnt 100% up his street you run the risk that he will hit 1,2 or a few that have a bit of class about them and are suited to it. When george went on unsuitable ground at the curragh he ran into araafa, when araafa went on ground that probably wasnt 100% up his street at ascot he ran into the likes of aeroplane etc, and when they met on ground that was halfway between the two george put araafa well and trully in his place.
I guage horses on who they beat and how they beat them. Ravens Pass on gd-fm is an absolutely top class horse, who would beat all against him in group1s in most years on gd-fm, yet henry has defeated him twice on those conditions, on gd-fm they are two exceptional horses IMO. Tamayuz may well be rated equal to henry but I havent seen anything yet that I would put on a par with henrys at goodwood or ascot. This is all of course, as you say, only my opinion, but even though Tamayuz is the most likely winner in the QE2 I dont think he will match the quality that henry has shown us this year, because it is unlikely that Tamayuz will run into anything which can turn in anything special on those conditions.
I dont agree that the gd-fm horses are rated higher, last year was all about ramonti and excellent art who both loved cut, but this is a different year. In actual fact I think it is harder to win on gd-fm by large margins (unless running against opposition just not suited to conditions) because the horses you are beating arent as tired in the last few furlongs as they would be with cut underfoot. George Washington and Henrythenavigator are just two exceptional horses who happen to have been ideally suited to better ground.
and when they met on ground that was halfway between the two george put araafa well and trully in his place
which is something that henry doesnt appear to be able to do.
but i would agree that in many years Ravens pass would be a champion. And maybe thats enough. Its the simple business of taking henry out of the equation and ravens has beaten decent horses easily enough
Hate to say it gents but a lot of you were talking in exactly the same way you are now only a month or so ago when the discussion was regarding DoM at the King George.
Write of Henry at your peril. I think he’s going to come back at Ascot next week and show Freddie Head he cant have it all his own way
The point people made about DOM in the KG were doubts about the trip not the ground.
I don’t think anyone is writing HTN off, merely pointing out that ground is a significant factor for him as whenever he has run on anything worse than good ground he has been beaten. I really hope the ground is good at Ascot as both have won on it and for me that surface will provide the fairest test with no real excuses.
But how soft was it at Longchamp? Was it the equivalent of our "good"? I know some sneer at the french times but it was a fast one…officially. Equally isnt it often the case that french going descriptions have a different benchmark
- Total Posts 17716
But how soft was it at Longchamp? Was it the equivalent of our "good"? I know some sneer at the french times but it was a fast one…officially. Equally isnt it often the case that french going descriptions have a different benchmark
The RP have the going allowance at Longchamp as -0.53 secs per furlong.
The g.a. for the Guineas was -0.46 spf; a negligible amount which should have made no discernible difference.
Maybe he just wasn’t good enough?thats what i have been looking for Reet
hes a fav horse of mine but i just suspect that on that day and possibly going forward, he wasnt quite the horse we saw earlier in the season
Fair enough. It happens
Bulwark – Despite my example, I’d have GW ahead of Araafa due to his QE2 win on G/S.
Can Henry do the same?thats what i have been looking for Reet
hes a fav horse of mine but i just suspect that on that day and possibly going forward, he wasnt quite the horse we saw earlier in the season
Fair enough. It happens
It was his first defeat of the season, maybe he had an off day. However, I thought the ground was soft and he didn’t travel.
JohnJ.
With the weather expected, can you really see the ground being an issue come Saturday afternoon?
No rain forecast at all down here with a good amount of sun should make that ground perfect for Henry
Bending conventional thinking and succeeding in your judgement is wonderful, however more-or-less it is downright foolish.
I think Henrythenavigator is a house of cards. He has become a quality miler in Europe this season but I’m uncomfortable about praising him as outstanding. I don’t see him challenging Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, Shamardal … I don’t see an X-factor in him and neither have I been impressed by his performances in any of his St James Palace or Sussex victories – both which appeared to lack depth.
For his sake, the absence of Paco Boy and Goldikova from nominations is soothing but Tamayuz, Sageburg, Darjina, Sabana Perdida, Raven’s Pass and supported by a de Kock possibility will require a career-best from the 2,000 Guineas winner.
And if he does win, it will no doubt be a deserving honour as champion miler.
When the days tick by and the sun glows on the Ascot track – how much will the odds change from Yuz’s 5/4 and Henry’s 7/4?
This race looks a no brainer to me when value is taken in to account.
Henry may or may not have been inconvenienced by the soft or was it good going (whichever it was) last time.
Tamayuz may be good, but Raven’s Pass was given a lot to do when they met.
Raven’s Pass showed last time he does not now need to be held up. He is getting ever closer to Henry with each run. May be Henry was idling or something but should there be that much gap in price?
Tamayuz 5/4, Henry 7/4, Raven’s Pass 4/1.
Even if you believe Raven’s has the worse chance of the three:
Do you believe Tamayuz has a better than 44% chance?
Do you believe Henry has a better than 36% chance?
Do you believe Raven’s has a better than 20% chance?In my opinion there is no way Tamayuz has better than double the chance of Raven’s. I’d have them very close. And Henry (after question marks about his last run) does not (imo) have better than one and a half the chance of Raven’s Pass.
Tamayuz will probably act on good-soft (if it is good-soft on the day), Henry probably won’t, and although it was not his vey best form (eased), Raven’s Pass showed he does act on the soft side of good last time. I expect it to be good going anyway, not favouring any horse.
Therefore (if the Gosden horse is a probable runner) Raven’s Pass must (imo) be the bet at this stage at around 4/1.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinge I’d say that on good ground or faster Henry has a better than 36% chance and is therefore value. Raven’s Pass good as he is will again find one of them too good so I’d say his chance is about right if not a fraction high. Tamayuz I’d say his % chance is less than 44% if he meets Henry on Henry’s favourable terms.
The going will be critical.
Ginge I’d say that on good ground or faster Henry has a better than 36% chance and is therefore value. Raven’s Pass good as he is will again find one of them too good so I’d say his chance is about right if not a fraction high. Tamayuz I’d say his % chance is less than 44% if he meets Henry on Henry’s favourable terms.
The going will be critical.
I can see why you think that Ian, I just feel unless they raced over a distance shorter than advertised the times suggest it was not that soft. And although it might still have been too soft for him, there is a distinct possibility there was more to it than that. In my mind I’d say it is 65% it was purely ground related and 35% some other factors were involved too. So with a possibility (no more than that) of running below form even on firm ground, I have marked his chance down.
I’d expect on good going Tamayuz to start at considerably larger than 5/4, Henry roughly the same, possibly marginably bigger than 7/4 and Raven’s quite a bit shorter than 4/1. Though it also depends on what takes them on. Interesting those three prices add up to 100% (100.81%) so the bookies have the field running for them.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHow about Nahoodh if the rain does fall?
Close 2nd to Lush Lashes last time out, great turn of foot to win in the soft stuff at Newmarket at the July Cup and could really challenge if given the right ground
How about Nahoodh if the rain does fall?
Close 2nd to Lush Lashes last time out, great turn of foot to win in the soft stuff at Newmarket at the July Cup and could really challenge if given the right ground
Nahoodh would have to improve quite a bit to beat the principals and, good filly though she is, seems to be exposed. I don’t see the going as helping her one way or the other, as long as it is not extremes. The 1000 was not soft.
Mark
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.