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Hopefully there will be plenty of groundhog days in February for the layers.
Opening race at Fos Las is a novice hurdle.
Some clear favourites but the interesting runner here is
Fire Lake showed up very well in listed bumpers this winter and on hurdles debut was down the field and subsequently found to have been struck into.
A good price here and a better run is expected.
FIRE LAKE each way.
Ties in nicely with the bumper selections.I’ve been keeping an eye on Hugh Taylor’s selections over on at the races.
I’m happy assessing his races as he takes a huge amount out of the book as his selections are always well backed.
He is a great tipster there is no doubt, but there is good reason to oppose some of his tips for the above reasons.
Last night I went for Thapa VC opposing Hugh’s selection on pure form reasons.
My runner won in a pulsating dead heat.
He goes for value and big prices and that is fair enough.
He has gone for Creek Harbour today in the opener at wolves.
He has a clear chance in this amateur jockey race.
My selection is a maiden and has a jockey who has yet to win either.
There is lot to like in my opinion about the chance of Birdie Bowers.
And here I get the chance to theorise about the effect of the draw and physics in racing.
Tahonta in stall 12 is a non runner at the head of the weights .
Drawn alongside is BB but he is way down the weights three-quarters down in the field. That means he gets a stone from the favourite give or take a couple of pounds with the jockeys claim. The free energy from the non runner can go two ways it can leave the two top weights marooned in the handicap or leave them clear of the field. I’m going for the former. Birdie Bowers has dropped nearly 30lbs from an initial 74 mark.
Birdie Bowers had been running in class fives all races for his first trainer. So given his opening mark of 74 in handicaps against 49 here in a class 6 significantly drops down here. Trainer is in decent form too.
The last four runs have been interesting, anticipated the start last time blowing all chances. Before that, two very good third places and unplaced when denied a clear run at a crucial time. So even without the free energy has potentially a great chance here. One of those placed runs came after running fourth the day before. The problem with amateur races is no matter how good the form looks, the rider may not be able to carry it through.
But if everyone said “you need experience to get the job done.”….and everyone listened….BIRDIE BOWERS
Each way
4.50
WolverhamptonOwl creek bridge 🌎
Little Token
Both win
1.40
Limerick
Up against a handicap snip here in Donnruas Dream. But owl creek bridge was a wide margin winner when last seen over at Punchestown 280 days ago, while little Token is on a formline with DD through the non running top weight….Newcastle 4pm
Newcomer for Micky Hammond
LE GRAND VERT
Win and Place.
A faller in France last twice, but previously a good winner over hurdles there.
The better ground and a quite ordinary field may suit on debut.leicester 3.50
PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL
has been targeted specifically to run today. Winning on this day in a bumper last year at Newcastle,before winning his maiden hurdle in the autumn. Two very good runs in much better company at Cheltenham followed.
Holds every chance and would be a very popular winner. The 4/1 went earlier.
DUNDALK
1.30
Hypanova is a short priced favourite here in the opener for Joseph O’Brien.
He ran well behind national gallery before dropping down to 5f last time.
He set things up here inevitably for Daintree showing good early pace and he will likely do the same here.
Coming out of stall 1 Tastyee has a good chance of following up two half decent efforts.
Firstly missed the break having to settle for last place before a much better run last time behind Resourceful. Tastyee a 250/1 shot was leading 1 f out before run down, that suggests 5f will suit.
TASTYEE
Win 12/1Tastyee
Win
Without Hypanova
11/2Double bet
Leicester 3.50
PUNXSUTAWNEY Phil
To place 3 places @ 4/6
In a double with
Dundalk 1.30
Tastyee
Win without Hypanova
13/2Leicester
1.15
RASANGO
Each way
French newcomer.
Has listed class wins but all racing done over much further.
Good level to start at and although trip looks too sharp,should be ploughing on at the end in an ordinary looking race. Headgear on for first start.
A lot of runners in poor form here and the saver is a win bet on
WEEBIL
Who won here in a seller by 22 lengths under same jockey and is the only last time out winner.Duisart needs a much stronger test to keep him on the straight and narrow.
Keeps jumping left.
Concentration issues but did it well enough.
Why these horses never go to France or more to the point Ireland is a real mystery….PADDYTHEIRISHMAN
Each way
1.30
Dundalk
Small chance after good run from stall 1 last time.
Win in running
French companyThought about hidden land but he hasn’t run well on the all weather before but has group 3 form on turf. He ran well in second. French company stayed off the pace and out the back and came through to do it very well indeed.
Hidden land if kept off track now will pop up at a price in the future but best run for a while.Adams Barbour and hodds girl may be head and shoulders above this field reverse forecast.
Dundalk 5.10
Elthura each way6pm Kempton
Luckyboylovelywife
Place
Four places
Related to listed winners.
Would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to feature here.
The Marcos Botti and Ghiani team up.
Being well backed so
Each way as well….
____________________________________________
Missed the break and ran green…
Stayed on toward the end6.30
KemptonNuble to
Win
Without
How hard can it be—————————————–
Big drift just before the off.
Horse never put into the race at any stage.
Betting patterns too late even for me to pick up.
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