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Punchestown Festival 2012

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  • #21616
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    The best of Ireland’s and not a punter in sight. :?

    More than a few were up for backing the bankers Sprinter Sacre. Sizing Europe Quevega Long Run and Big Bucks in trebles and accies.

    Like always couple lost but what about Punchestown?

    Sizing Europe looks outstanding at 4/7, Sir Des Champs 1/4 only needs to stand up, Trifolium 8/13 could walk faster than his opponents could run, Hurricane Fly 2/5 is still Hurricane Fly and Quevega 1/1 has always been better than Voler La Vedette and nowts has change that.

    Around 7.9/1 the 5 winning…….mugs bet or not?

    #401999
    Pants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 635

    Love this festival, surprisingly little talk of it on the forum, maybe everyone is busy getting into ‘flat’ mode?!

    I’m on the ‘mug treble’ bet today, at work so no time to study the bigger field handicaps.

    Can’t see any of the 3 big faves will lose barring a fall, Trifolium ran really well here in heavy in Feb and was a close up 3rd at in the CH, Darlan having since franked the form handsomely at Aintree, Alderwood the obvious danger and probably a better value bet but not if he doesn’t win!

    Sizing Europe proved he can handle the heavy ground this season and much as it pains me to say it Big Zeb looks finished, alot of money for Realt Dubh who is Pricewise but he has 20 odd lengths to make up on SE from The Queen Mother, will be some performance if he does it and the ground will suit but not for me.

    And as for SDC, should be a case of putting in a clear round….surely?!

    #402002
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Had a mug treble myself :lol:

    Sizing Europe, The Fly, and Des Champs. Hurricane Fly is the one I’d consider most bombproof of the three. I think Quevega faces a serious challenege in Voler La Vedette, don’t think there’ll be much between them.

    Today I’ve backed Realt Dubh with and without Sizing Europe, and Mossey Joe without Sir Des Champs. Realt Dubh comes here fresher than most and 2 miles on heavy ground will suit him a lot more than the Queen Mother did. He was caught flat footed that day but they won’t be going as quick today which will play to his strengths. Unfortunately Big Zeb has looked ona downward curve this season and the application of headgear today hardly inspired confidence.

    #402024
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 648

    Does anyone else think that Alderwood could well be a dark horse for whichever Cheltenham race he’ll run in next year – whether it’s the Arkle or the Champion Hurdle?

    Does anyone else think Sizing Europe’s win had an ‘end of an era’, rather than a ‘you’ve not seen the last of me’, feel to it?

    Does anyone else think that Sir Des Champs, while undoubtedly the best horse in the race, and no question he should be odds on, is a little bit too short at 1/4, seeing as he’s never raced 3 miles before?

    Does anyone think Follow The Plan is currently way too big for the Gold Cup at 11s, seeing as he’s got course and distance form and beat a field containing much better horses than Captain Chris, Quel Esprit and Rubi Light at Aintree?

    Or is it just me?

    FLD

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #402047
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    One bet so far.

    Sizing Europe/Sir Des Champs/Quevega/Hurricane Fly big four fold.

    Looking hopeful.

    #402091
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Magnanimity

    looks the only out and out stayer in this field. Goes well on heavy. Still in with a chance before a bad mistake ended his chance in Irish National. On form shouldn’t be good enough, but can’t see many here showing their best. Good each way bet at massive prices. Missed the 33/1, but 25/1 (SJ) is too good to ignore.

    Value Is Everything
    #402107
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Does anyone else think that Alderwood could well be a dark horse for whichever Cheltenham race he’ll run in next year – whether it’s the Arkle or the Champion Hurdle?

    Does anyone else think Sizing Europe’s win had an ‘end of an era’, rather than a ‘you’ve not seen the last of me’, feel to it?

    Does anyone else think that Sir Des Champs, while undoubtedly the best horse in the race, and no question he should be odds on, is a little bit too short at 1/4, seeing as he’s never raced 3 miles before?

    Does anyone think Follow The Plan is currently way too big for the Gold Cup at 11s, seeing as he’s got course and distance form and beat a field containing much better horses than Captain Chris, Quel Esprit and Rubi Light at Aintree?

    Or is it just me?

    FLD

    Not sure Alderwood is fast enough for the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle would be a complete no no…McCoy said after the race he was a stayer so maybe he’ll be stepped up in trip if he goes chasing. He hit a very high price in running when the 2nd quickened up I believe…so that would kind of back up what the champ was saying

    #402110
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Good day at the office yesterday. Pity about the chases today but there’s a nice bet to be had with Ipsos Du Burlais imo.

    #402237
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Yet another great performance from Quevega and amazingly 5/4 easily available.

    It just goes to show that when Big Buck’s wins something always has to finish second and taking that as a guide that VLV had improved was as silly as it gets.

    Quevega only beat her by 5 lengths this year but Ruby aware of the awful state of the ground held her up until the very last minute or it would have most certainly been further.

    If she can come back to Cheltenham next season and win a 5th David Nicholson that will be on a par with any other record set by any other horse in the history of NH racing.

    Not bad for a French bred who they say have a supposedly short shelf life.. she really is a living legnd :wink:

    #402241
    wilsonl
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    I absolutely adore this horse HGM and have backed her consecutively for the past two seasons Punchestown/ Cheltenham races

    But for her sake and maybe more so, for Big Buck’s ‘ why can’t we have the race everybody wants to see next March ?

    And BTW – I’m not a big fan of betting long-ish odds on shots, Quevega at Cheltenham an exception but surely the Fly at 2/5 tomorrow against 2 stablemates and 40/1 shot The Real Article is simply printing money…

    Lee

    #402244
    Pants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 635

    Yet another great performance from Quevega and amazingly 5/4 easily available.

    It just goes to show that when Big Buck’s wins something always has to finish second and taking that as a guide that VLV had improved was as silly as it gets.

    Quevega only beat her by 5 lengths this year but Ruby aware of the awful state of the ground held her up until the very last minute or it would have most certainly been further.

    If she can come back to Cheltenham next season and win a 5th David Nicholson that will be on a par with any other record set by any other horse in the history of NH racing.

    Not bad for a French bred who they say have a supposedly short shelf life.. she really is a living legnd :wink:

    Still only 8 as well, Willie says her mare didn’t peak until 9 so frighteningly their maybe more to come.

    Would love to see her take on BB but can’t see it happening.

    #402264
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    One bet so far.

    Sizing Europe/Sir Des Champs/Quevega/Hurricane Fly big four fold.

    Looking hopeful.

    The Fly hacks up and it’s absolutely printing money around 5/1.

    #402340
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Paddy Power refunding bets if your horse finishes second to Quel Esprit tomorrow.

    #402408
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Magnanimity

    looks the only out and out stayer in this field. Goes well on heavy. Still in with a chance before a bad mistake ended his chance in Irish National. On form shouldn’t be good enough, but can’t see many here showing their best. Needs to put in a career best effort, but I believe the RSA 4th was achieved despite the ground. If (big IF) putting in a good round of jumping, could surprise a few here. Good each way bet at massive prices.

    Quel Esprit

    will be difficult to beat if allowed to dictate and back the field up. However, he travelled so well in the Hennessey and yet

    Roberto Goldback

    (in poor form / jumped poorly since) was cutting him back towards the end. Quel Esprit goes on heavy and stays, but does he stay the trip on heavy? Something that applies to a lot of others too, including second and third and fourth favourites, Rubi Light, Quantitativeeasing and Follow The Plan.

    Rubi Light

    ran in the Ryanair as if he’d be better off at 3 miles, but these conditions will make it a severe test, more like (given a fair pace) what it would be like over 3m3f on good.

    Quantitativeeasing

    isn’t even proven at 3m under any conditions and failed to stay in the Irish National. Not only does he have to stay, but he needs to improve in conditions. I’d want more than 7/1 for him.

    Follow The Plan

    is a former winner of this (on good) and also has stamina doubts in the ground (proven at 2 1/2 miles on this surface). Looking through his form, is far more consistent in the Spring than Winter. Added to that, a career best last time out in first time cheek pieces. Hopefully they’ll work again. Possible some Aintree rivals were below form after Cheltenham, but at face value looks just as good, if not a better performance than Quel Esprit or Rubi Light’s. At around 17/2 or 8/1 Follow The Plan looks worth taking a chance on the negatives.

    Backed

    Magnanimity

    each way @ 25/1 and

    Follow The Plan

    win only @ 17/2.

    Value Is Everything
    #402492
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    I absolutely adore this horse HGM and have backed her consecutively for the past two seasons Punchestown/ Cheltenham races

    But for her sake and maybe more so, for Big Buck’s ‘ why can’t we have the race everybody wants to see next March ?

    And BTW – I’m not a big fan of betting long-ish odds on shots, Quevega at Cheltenham an exception but surely the Fly at 2/5 tomorrow against 2 stablemates and 40/1 shot The Real Article is simply printing money…

    Lee

    The problem is neither Willie Mullin or Paul Nicholls want to see it happen or break the winning formulas.

    To be honest as good as she is and depsite VLV’s proximity to the big fella I doubt if Quevega would get anywhere near to the bottom of him.

    Big Buck’s is a complete character who seems to know exactly what has to be done and when to do it. Put a mule behind him and he’d still want to be eyeballed put Quevega behind him and he’d just do the same to her as he does to everything else. IMO.

    It’s almost like he’s running with his foot on the brake and just releases it as required.

    —————-

    You were certainly right about Hurricane Fly but to be honest I did not like what I saw one little bit…….to my eye, that’s not the same horse that won the race last year or won the 2011 Champion Hurdle.

    Zaidpour went for going well to nothing..almost like he’s over the top……maybe it’s just me but the old Hurricane Fly would have on that hard held and he was far from impressive against nothing.

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