The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Probability – an exercise

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Probability – an exercise

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 23 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #20980
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    As part of a failed and absent-minded lifelong attempt to get to grips with probability theory I continue to read on the subject.

    Here’s an interesting exercise I came across tonight.

    If my expectation of winning a tennis <i>point </i>against you are 1 in 3 (or 2/1 against in racing odds parlance) what are my chances of winning any individual <i>game</i> (not a set or match – a game)?

    All other things which normally affect UK tennis players such as choking being equal of course.

    #391213
    betlargebetlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2663

    Errm…is the answer Geoff Hurst in the 1966 World Cup Final?

    Mike

    #391215
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1571

    Are you British or a dour Scot?

    #391216
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    1.01

    #391229
    The Young FellaThe Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2072

    I put this to my Maths genius friend and occasional TRF poster –

    becher’s chair

    .

    After thinking about it, he said

    "I believe it would be impossible to get a full exact answer because in a game of tennis you could keep returning to deuce infinitely, so you can’t get one answer."

    #391232
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Well it’s 80/1 to win to love, 134/1 to 15, 224/1 to 30 and 1124/1 on the 1st deuce.

    #391244
    Marginal Value
    Participant
    • Total Posts 664

    I put this to my

    Maths

    genius friend and occasional TRF poster –

    becher’s chair

    .

    After thinking about it, he said

    "I believe it would be impossible to get a full exact answer because in a game of tennis you could keep returning to deuce infinitely, so you can’t get one answer."

    Statisticians and mathematicians are different. A mathematician (male of course!) was taken into a room where there was a very attractive woman standing with her back against the far wall. The mathematician was told he could advance toward her, but in each move he could only halve the distance between them. He said it would be a waste of time since he would never reach her, and he left the room. A statistician (female this time) was taken into a room where there was a very attractive man standing with his back against the far wall. She was told she could advance toward him, but in each move she could only halve the distance between them. She said: "Great, for all practical purposes, I will eventually get near enough."

    For all practical purposes, the odds will limit out at approximately 35.5 to 1.

    #391247
    indocine
    Member
    • Total Posts 489

    I’d play this particular game in Monte Carlo

    #391249
    kasparovkasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    This is fairly routine stuff.You can get simple freeware that will tell you probabilities over one game up to the whole match over 5 sets. See below. Betfair odds tend to move on a point by point basis pretty much in line with these calcs.

    http://www.downloadplex.com/Windows/Edu … 17243.html

    Incidentally if you do any each way on horses, you could do worse than putting them in as doubles with Roger Federer for the French open. He is 12/1 at WH , about right for the win (depends on Nadal being injured and clay not being Djoko’s forte), but I think his odds of reaching the final are about 3/1 (could happen if he faces Djoko in the semis rather than Nadal) so half odds is good value.

    #391252
    DroneDrone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5112

    :D VG :D Marginal Value and Indocine

    Halving the distance is a concept akin to drawing the diagonal (root 2) of the Unit Square.

    Root 2 (1.414…) is an irrational number and therefore has no ‘end’ :

    ergo

    it cannot be represented as a finite line :?

    It’s all Greek to me

    #391256
    sberrysberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    Is this game being played by A Murray in a grand slam final?

    #391304
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Incidentally if you do any each way on horses, you could do worse than putting them in as doubles with Roger Federer for the French open. He is 12/1 at WH , about right for the win (depends on Nadal being injured and clay not being Djoko’s forte), but I think his odds of reaching the final are about 3/1 (could happen if he faces Djoko in the semis rather than Nadal) so half odds is good value.

    Madness. Doesn’t matter what Djokovic’s forte is, the man is a machine. He was thrashing Nadal on clay in the ATP events before the French last year. I do agree that only Federer can beat Djokovic though.

    #391315
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1981

    I make it around 6/1 to win the game.

    I’m particularly tempted by the 1124/1 quoted on winning on the first deuce.

    I make it 22% chance of getting to deuce:

    (6!/(3!*3!))*(power(0.333,3))*(power(0.66667,3))

    From there you’re a 20% chance of winning, so a 22/1 poke.

    #391321
    kentdougalkentdougal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 277

    Incidentally if you do any each way on horses, you could do worse than putting them in as doubles with Roger Federer for the French open. He is 12/1 at WH , about right for the win (depends on Nadal being injured and clay not being Djoko’s forte), but I think his odds of reaching the final are about 3/1 (could happen if he faces Djoko in the semis rather than Nadal) so half odds is good value.

    Madness. Doesn’t matter what Djokovic’s forte is, the man is a machine. He was thrashing Nadal on clay in the ATP events before the French last year. I do agree that only Federer can beat Djokovic though.

    If Nadal is injured Feds would be seeded 2 and avoid Djoko until the final. If the top 4 all play Feds would in theory meet Djoko in the semis and would lose IMO

    #391328
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Nadal near enough won the Aussie with an injured shoulder. No way will he skip the French.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 23 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.