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Prix Marcel Boussac

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  • #3110
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    The bold Jackane ruled Finsceal Beo out of the Guineas picture with the following assertion:

    "I’m not a fan of 2yos who win over a mile as a 2yo and continue running over a mile as 3yo. I know Nannina won the Fillies Mile last year and won the Coronation Stakes this year, but most winners over a mile as 2yo want further."

    I was intrigued, so thought I’d have a brief look at winners of the Boussac since 1989 who were campaigned at a mile and beyond as opposed to those tried over middle distances only.

    Salsabil ~ won 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Irish Derby<br>Shadayid ~ won 1000 Guineas<br>Culture Vulture ~ won French 1000 Guineas<br>Gold Splash ~ won Coronation Stakes & placed in French 1000<br>Sierra Madre ~ n/r in G1 company at 1m ~ won Prix Vermeille<br>Macoumba ~ only subsequent pattern win came at 7 furlongs!!<br>Miss Tahiti ~ No wins. Placed in French Oaks & Vermeille.<br>Ryafan ~ won Falmouth Stakes before becoming top US filly<br>Loving Claim ~ never won again. Group 1 placed at 10f<br>Juvenia ~ as Loving Claim (same race)<br>Lady Of Chad ~ G2 & G3 winner at 1 mile. No wins beyond.<br>Amonita ~ only subsequent pattern win at 7f.<br>Sulk ~ campaigned up to 2m. No subsequent wins.<br>Six Perfections ~ won Jacques le Marois & BC Mile.<br>Denebola ~ placed in a 7f all aged G1. No further wins.<br>Divine Proportions ~ won French Oaks/Guineas double.<br>Rumplestiltskin ~ unplaced only subsequent start.

    Amazingly, only a single winner since 1989 has won beyond a mile in pattern company without winning in the same grade (or higher) at a mile as a 3yo. That’s quite a statistic. It clearly disproves the notion that fillies who win at a mile at two generally lack the speed to win at the same trip in top company at three. Of the fillies who failed to win top class races at 1 mile, the form book shows that virtually all were simply not good enough, while three of the winners actually needed to drop back to 7f to show their best form.

    (Edited by rory at 7:21 pm on Oct. 5, 2006)

    #78892
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    This reminds me of some research I posted early this year that showed the winner of the J-L lagardere is almost always a miler at 3yo.

    (the point of that was to indicate that Horatio Nelson was unlikely to be a Derby horse)

    Steve

    #78893
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Guess what I’m eating for dessert tonight……..;)

    Fair enough Rory – stats speak for themselves. Interesting stats to read, so thanks.

    Looking at the RP trophy though – 7 of last 10 went to on to be placed in 10f + races (Palace Episode and Medaaly were both only raced once after the RP Trophy – American Post was the only other winner to go to be unplaced)

    As for the Royal Lodge……well fair enough, eating yet more humble pie – only 3 of last 10 winners went on to appreciate further

    Fillies Mile – 6 of last 10 winners went on to have their success over longer distances.

    However, what is interesting.

    Marcel-Boussac – since 1989, only 4 went on to Classic Mile glory<br>Royal Lodge – since 1988, only 1 went to Classic Mile glory<br>RP Trophy – since 1988, 0<br>Fillies’ Mile – since 1988, only 3.

    So……Admiralofthefleet, Simply Perfect, Finsceal Beo – LAY LAY LAY!

    #78894
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Since 1988, just 1 Fillies’ Mile winner went on to win either the Irish, French or British Oaks (Reams of Verse won the British Oaks in 1997)

    As Rory already reported, only 2 Marcel-Boussac winners since 1988 went on to win an Oaks (Salsabil also won the Irish Derby)

    Royal Lodge – only 1 (Benny the Dip Epsom Derby in 1997)

    RP Trophy – only 4 Derby winners since 1988 (High Chaparral won 2, Celtic Swing and Motivator)

    #78895
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Lies, damn lies and manufactured statistics.

    #78896
    Sal
    Member
    • Total Posts 562

    "Marcel-Boussac – since 1989, only 4 went on to Classic Mile glory"

    Sounds like quite a good strike rate to me – certainly not a negative trend, particularly when you add in Gold Splash’s place, Six Perfections two Guineas places and Amonita only being beaten 2 lengths in France.

    A good race to follow for early season top class miler fillies.

    On breeding Finsceal Beo should be well suited by a mile at first, then maybe stretching to 10f later in the season.    

    #78897
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Marcel-Boussac – since 1989, only 4 went on to Classic Mile glory <br>

    Royal Lodge – since 1988, only 1 went to Classic Mile glory <br>RP Trophy – since 1988, 0 <br>Fillies’ Mile – since 1988, only 3.

    Stats like this bore me rigid

    Judge the horse…not the trend

    Unless anyone can state a good reason why a top stable would not enter one of their top horses in any of the above races, then its of no account

    A lot of trends are simply without explanation (and could perhaps be demonstrated as not being unusual in anyway by using a wider statistical analysis) and that being the case are of zero interest

    #78898
    Sal
    Member
    • Total Posts 562

    I don’t agree.

    It is not necessarily the trend itself that is important, but the underlying reason for the trend – and that can be highlighted by looking at these sort of stats.

    Trends always have to be judged with caution and objectivity but they can be useful if used correctly, and as you say, the actual horse is taken into account.

    Jack’s initial point was that Gr.1 mile winning 2yo fillies are no good over a mile at 3.  Looking at the trends for the Marcel Boussac has shown this very much not to be the case.

    Also, looking at stats for the Racing Post Trophy shows that it is generally won by the type of colt who would appreciate further than the Guineas trip at that point in their career.  This may be because it is later in the year (for colts who are slower developers that Dewhurst/Guineas types), or because the ground is more testing then, or because trainers aim their speedier beasts at Newmarket and their more stoutly bred at Doncaster.

    Whichever why, these stats can be helpful if you treat them with respect.

    #78899
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from clivex on 12:42 pm on Oct. 6, 2006[br]Marcel-Boussac – since 1989, only 4 went on to Classic Mile glory <br>

    Royal Lodge – since 1988, only 1 went to Classic Mile glory <br>RP Trophy – since 1988, 0 <br>Fillies’ Mile – since 1988, only 3.

    Stats like this bore me rigid

    Judge the horse…not the trend

    Unless anyone can state a good reason why a top stable would not enter one of their top horses in any of the above races, then its of no account

    A lot of trends are simply without explanation (and could perhaps be demonstrated as not being unusual in anyway by using a wider statistical analysis) and that being the case are of zero interest

    ClIve<br> While I thoroughly agree with your point of judging the horse rather than the trend, it is a fact that certain types of races generally attract certain types of horses, specifically due to the nature of each race.<br> The Racing Post Trophy is a prime example, normally a straight mile slog on soft ground or worse, it usually  attracts the future middle distance horse rather than a potential Guineas winner.<br> Not always, of course, but often enough to use as a guide to how the stable views the horse for the future.

    #78900
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Sal, it wasn’t just 2yo fillies I don’t like that won over a mile, but all 2yos.

    Clivex – I understand what you’re saying completely. I was just as sceptical as you are, but my mate used the 10 year trends at Cheltenham, and made an absolute packet. Subsequently I went through and studied thet big race trends for 2005 in all races they were available for, and they actually do work.

    What I would suggest though, is that we look at what happens to the 2yos that win over a mile this year next year, and see which of them are successful over the same distance.

    #78901
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Quote: from jackane24 on 3:06 pm on Oct. 6, 2006[br]Sal, it wasn’t just 2yo fillies I don’t like that won over a mile, but all 2yos.

    What I would suggest though, is that we look at what happens to the 2yos that win over a mile this year next year, and see which of them are successful over the same distance.

    What is the sense in that? Surely most 2yos that run over 1m as juveniles want further anyway?

    #78902
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    My original point was highlighting the difference between an essentially speed oriented mile race like the Marcel Boussac and, say the RP Trophy, or god forbid a one mile maiden in the mud at Pontefract. :o

    It’s fairly obvious that the type of 2yo aimed at a race which puts undue emphasis on stamina over speed is the type which the trainer believes has abundant stamina, or as it is more correcty put ‘bloody slow’. An analysis of this type of animal as a 3yo will show it trying to utilise its stamina (or offset its shocking lack of speed) by tackling longer trips.

    Races like the Prix Marcel Boussac don’t fit this mould and shouldn’t be lumped together with the slogs we see here from October onward.

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