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Fists, Vision D’Etat has never been beaten on a racetrack, he has won a very good looking french derby, which is a decent enough arc trial in its own right. He should get the extra 1.5 furlongs well, gets the likely ground well, is being saved specifically for the race, and if he was trained by fabre or royer dupre would be a fraction of his current price. He is also the most likely winner of the Prix Niel (if returning in his french derby form), which will see his odds slashed. I would hardly say he doesnt even have e/w claims. French trained 3yo colts have an excellent recent record in the arc and he is probably the best challenger to match that category. Also he only needs to improve 8lbs to win the arc, which bearing in mind he is lightly raced and that he is trying the trip for the first time is 100% possible.
Zarkava on the other hand has never raced beyond 10.5f (neither has VDE but I fancy him to see it out at a slow pace and probably at a fast one too).
Has never raced against the opposite sex.
Is a filly (a very good one but a filly nevertheless).
Plenty of exceptional fillies have tried and failed in the arcs.On the above factors alone her price is a rip off. IMO New Approach wouldnt even have to steal first run on her, he would completely destroy her at that trip, New Approach beat Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest cosily when he was having a bad day. Unless he’s trained off he’ll be a very short favorite by the end of the week. I am not saying that Zarkava won’t win, but I’ll be completely surprised if she does.
Bearing in mind, amongst all this chirping we can do for weeks on end until the big day arrives – there is still the known fact that French 3YOs tend to blossom in the Autumn, and a couple of Jockey-Club also rans may improve lengths on their Spring efforts.
Those would include, but are not limited to: High Rock, Prospect Wells, Thewayyouare, Magadan and Democrate.
Fists, Vision D’Etat has never been beaten on a racetrack, he has won a very good looking french derby, which is a decent enough arc trial in its own right. He should get the extra 1.5 furlongs well, gets the likely ground well, is being saved specifically for the race, and if he was trained by fabre or royer dupre would be a fraction of his current price. He is also the most likely winner of the Prix Niel (if returning in his french derby form), which will see his odds slashed. I would hardly say he doesnt even have e/w claims. French trained 3yo colts have an excellent recent record in the arc and he is probably the best challenger to match that category. Also he only needs to improve 8lbs to win the arc, which bearing in mind he is lightly raced and that he is trying the trip for the first time is 100% possible.
Zarkava on the other hand has never raced beyond 10.5f (neither has VDE but I fancy him to see it out at a slow pace and probably at a fast one too).
Has never raced against the opposite sex.
Is a filly (a very good one but a filly nevertheless).
Plenty of exceptional fillies have tried and failed in the arcs.On the above factors alone her price is a rip off. IMO New Approach wouldnt even have to steal first run on her, he would completely destroy her at that trip, New Approach beat Tartan Bearer and Casual Conquest cosily when he was having a bad day. Unless he’s trained off he’ll be a very short favorite by the end of the week. I am not saying that Zarkava won’t win, but I’ll be completely surprised if she does.
I’ll eat my hat if Vision D’Etat gets within 5 lengths of Zarkava.
There have been some great fillies over the years like Allez France, Pebbles, Park Top, Time Charter, Petite Etoille and the all conquering All Along. It’s easy to through up stats and say it goes against the grain but every so often something really special truns up.
I have been touting Zakava for months as she blew me away the first time I saw her and nothing has made me change my mind.
IMHO she will not only win the Arc but she will win it easily. Someone asked in a recent post what is meant by a class horse…….I can answer that in one word..Zarkava!!!
The stats will mean nothing if she hits the front around 2 out and leaves everything for dead.
I think she’ll do exactly that but I have been wrong before hence my saver on New Approach but I doubt if even he can beat her.
Aidan is going to the Arc without a prep race for Soldier of Fortune.That means only one thing in my opinion.He thinks Soldier of Fortune will win.If so why has he stated that Frozen Rain will also run in the Arc?Because he always tries to cover all the basis. Soldier of Fortune could encounter trouble in running and he wants to have a second string to his bow; he may even have three or four strings but SoF is his first choice and he does not need a prep race.
Aidan is going to the Arc without a prep race for Soldier of Fortune.That means only one thing in my opinion.He thinks Soldier of Fortune will win.If so why has he stated that Frozen Rain will also run in the Arc?Because he always tries to cover all the basis. Soldier of Fortune could encounter trouble in running and he wants to have a second string to his bow; he may even have three or four strings but SoF is his first choice and he does not need a prep race.
"He thinks SoF will win". Interesting conclusion. For my money SoF wont get close to the winner regardless of what Aidan thinks.
Aidan has never wavered in his belief that Soldier of Fortune would win the Arc.I would rather Aidan O’Brien’s opinion of a horse than anyone else.
First crack as a 3YO in the Arc, I think Aidan got a good taste of what Soldier Of Fortune can do.
This is a very bold tactic. I’m unsure of Arc winners heading into the race as fresh as Soldier Of Fortune, so although O’Brien is playing a unique hand, I think it’s a confident one.
Autumnal 3YOs need to show – Vision d’Etat at 19 on Betfair and High Rock trading at 340 are those of interest.
what price is SOF at the moment? someone whose judgement I trust quite strongly has been saying to back him for this all year.
what price is SOF at the moment? someone whose judgement I trust quite strongly has been saying to back him for this all year.
Currently 9/2 2nd Fav
Aidan has never wavered in his belief that Soldier of Fortune would win the Arc.I would rather Aidan O’Brien’s opinion of a horse than anyone else.
If he was training every horse in the race I could see your point of view. I’ve had this theory for months now that Aidan won’t win another grp.1 in France this year. Was scoffed at by many on another forum but we are now in Sept. and it is still holding up. Be interesting to see how that goes with Henry scheduled to travel over for the Moulins on Sunday.
My point is simple and clear. I value O’Brien’s opinion more than any one else in racing when he says something about his horses.
eg if he says his horse will win and you say it won’t I go with Aidan.That simple.My point is simple and clear. I value O’Brien’s opinion more than any one else in racing when he says something about his horses.
eg if he says his horse will win and you say it won’t I go with Aidan.That simple.I hope there are a lot of you out there with this line of thinking.
My point is simple and clear. I value O’Brien’s opinion more than any one else in racing when he says something about his horses.
eg if he says his horse will win and you say it won’t I go with Aidan.That simple.I hope there are a lot of you out there with this line of thinking.
Haha have you lay SOF then?
My couple of picks for the Arc would be Prospect Wells and Papal Bull.
Prospect Wells is the stereotypical unexposed French 3yo, the type that win so many Arcs. Even though he’s been defeated in a couple of 3yo -G1’s, you could make plausible excuses for both runs. I’d be writing off his French Derby run, rightly or wrongly. The last run when 2nd to Montmartre looked more like a prep run, I’m sure it wasn’t meant to be. It left me thinking that if the race panned out differently, PW could have finished far closer to the winner….and he is supposedly the second coming. I think he’s serious value at around 11/1, if he wins the 3yo trial at Longchamp, he could start much shorter.
I think the saying goes forget the hype (in this case negative). Well, try doing that with Papal Bull. He has some of the best 12f – G1 form in England this year. I wouldn’t let his quirks overshadow his ability and form. The fast finishing 4th in the Coronation Cup and the 2nd in the King George, put him right there with the O’Brien horses, Getaway and Youmzain. Imo, a fast run race like the Arc is what he needs, he‘ll probably be one of the first off the bridle, but one of the last still battling on. If he turns up there, it could be a case of right there, but not quite in front, but that’s why he’s probably 20/1, & horses with similar form for 10/1 or less.
The downside is O.Peslier can’t ride both of them. Given sensible going, I could see both of these coming with sweeping late, and fast, runs.
I think I’ll get a bet on New Approach before todays race as it should see him cut considerably for the arc and ladbrokes 10-1 should be a good price
.This highly studied and genius approach to the Arc for Soldier Of Fortune is doing my head in. I mean, I sense the feeling that Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien have already declared to themselves that Soldier Of Fortune will win the Arc.
I’m not cracking open Pandora’s Box unfortunately, as the 9/2 price indicates. But you have to admit, Soldier Of Fortune won the Prix Noailles with ease, the Prix Niel in race record time and was hampered in the Arc (it may have come too soon in his career, maybe). His record at the track is marvellous. He finds another gear at the BdB. More than one, actually.
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