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well that "grafter" must be doing someting right then. and sariska won the oaks last year!!!!!
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Only one serious contender has put its hoof up so far – Workforce. Cannot have F&G or Sariska at any price. We may not have seen the winner on a racecourse yet this season. Wide open contest right now.
Still think that Fame And Glory has been widely underestimated. He beats Sariska and people start saying that she’s the value?? She’s a good, potentially great filly but she was beaten by F&G last time, and by a decisive distance too.
Fame And Glory has won 2 Group1’s in good style, and while he will need to do better, with a mid season break there’s no reason he can’t do so himself.
Look at last year’s arc (which often has a bearing on the next year’s race)
1st (Sea The Stars) – Retired
2nd (Youmzain) – Fame and Glory has reversed form (admittedly Longchamp is his best track)
3rd (Calvaryman) – Fame and Glory has reversed form
4th (Conduit) – Retired
5th (Dar Re Me) – Admittedly will be a tough nut to crack but got first run on F&G and crossed over him that day.
There will be any number of unexposed French horses (Planteur for one), and Workforce is a worthy favourite but there are reasons for thinking that if the prep goes well, he can take a big hand.
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Fame and Glory is Fame and Glory AOB has him 100% and he’s grabbed 3 races with him in 1 month………….great bit of placing hope he enjoyed his season.
Take a magic marker and put a big blue lne through his name or give your money to charity……….wouldn’t win an Ac in 100 years………need to be one bad race if he did.
Youmzain for one never got going and was hanging like a pig at Epsom and he loves Lonchamp………you would need to be half daft to think that was the best of him and come October there is nothing to say he won’t finish in front of Fame and Glory again.
If Fame and Glory has improved since last season I’m sorry but I just can see it……..same horse same lack of real finishing speed that it takes to win an Arc.
Sariska could and should improve past him, St Nick could be anything and even if they fail to click Workforce could be special although I have my doubts.
There must be a huge change the Arc will be won by a European horse this time round as ours all have big
against themSariska could be the one and Michael Bell is doing the right thing by slowly away……..he’d need to be nuts to have her 100% at this time of the year ………I don’t think she needs it to be a bog. People assume that because of the way she won on it….. but she does need good ground or worse…….Miachael Bell stated she looks after herself on fast ground..meaning she won’t give her all………I think Michael is extracting the urine a little and he’s the one that’s doing the looking after, with one thing in mind…winning the Arc.
Maybe it’s foolish telling everyone this, perhaps it’s foolish setting myself up for a fall, but what the hell, we’re all friends here.
Air Trooper.
Won the same race as Rail Link last time out and looks like he’s being aimed at the Prix du Lys, again a race Rail Link won. He holds a Grand Prix de Paris entry and I think this is potentially Fabre’s Arc horse. Backed at 85s and 90s.
21 horses remain on my Arc list, although the Racing Post doesn’t acknowledge the existence of 4 of them, 6 are fillies and 1 is trained in Japan. I have severe stamina doubts about 2 of the colts, the main one being Planteur, the other being Simon De Montfort.
nb. Workforce is on the list
Air Trooper.
He is definitely one that I am following:
I think it is definitely too early in the season to guess at the 3yos (too much unknown with Rewilding, SNA, Air Trooper, Jan Vermeer, Behkabad, etc etc etc) but I think it is not entirely unreasonable to start speculating about the older horses. Fairly clear that trainers of Daryakana, Dar Re Mi, FAG, Youmzain will try to get them to the Arc if they can.
Until last month, I thought Godolphin would at least leave him in the safe hands of Fabre until Dubai-time over the winter (like Cavalryman last year), but the recent mid-season transfers of CB/AS/SdM/Rew indicate that a Grand Prix de Paris victory for Air Trooper could unfortunately prompt a switch from Fabre to one of the Emirati trainers. To me, this would take the lustre off AT’s ante-post appeal. Of course it’s very early to anticipate all this. I am also keeping a beady eye on Shimraan (impressive maiden winner, just like Air Trooper) whom AT only beat by a head in the Prix de L’Avre, and who re-opposes in the Lys on Sunday.
Zarkava
Is Daryakana on your list and what chance do you give her in winning the Arc.
I really can’t understand anyone placing a bet on a race that isn’t until October.
By all means book the Pre de Catalan (too late) but you don’t know if the horse will run, state of the going etc etc
I’m just keeping an eye on Dar Re Mi but any horse I back will have to be a ‘no run no bet’.
Zarkava
Is Daryakana on your list and what chance do you give her in winning the Arc.
I eliminate all older horses immediately.
Surely Daryakana is over the odds???
It might have something to do with her ‘run style’ – coming from way back as she does could be factored into this?
Also her trainers states – (watch the interview that Matt Chapman did with Dupre if it’s still on ATR) she wants ‘good ground’ – granted we haven’t really had a real soft ground Arc for some time…
Edit: Also whether he has another top 3yr old will come into play…
O’Brien horses rarely improve as 4yos. Duke of Marmalade and Dylan Thomas are the only Group 1 winners of his I can think of who you could say indisputably improved from 3 to 4, which the latter was entitled to do anyway (late-April foal). It’s very debatable IMO whether High Chaparral improved from 3 to 4 and the same goes for Hawk Wing.
Actually of the 6 fillies left on my list, 5 of them don’t hold an entry in the Prix de Diane – only Sarafina does. They’ll have to run in the Grand Prix de Paris or Pretty Polly to qualify (or any other Group 1).
Didn’t Fame and Glory really tail off last season? Might be a chance he’ll do something similar. I am a fan of the horse but I don’t think he has the sparkle for an Arc. Would be one of kind of beast if they him go the Cup route next year imo…
Yeah – as did the ‘Duke’ and ‘Dylan’ was at the end of his tether when he won the race!
If they take in the POW it’ll be interesting to see if he can be kept on the go without cracking…
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Agreed! The Duke was a classic example of a horse who AOB early on, grabbed everything he could with. He ran a good race in the Arc but couldn’t cope with what was a much stronger filed than anything he ha faced all season.
That’s what makes the man such a great trainer IMO.He had a choice with Fame and Glory…..he could have brought him along slowly and gone for the Arc later in the season or get him 100% from day one.
For me he chose the latter knowing the horse has his limits and they can’t all be Sea the Stars.
I stand my ground and say by the time the Arc comes round Fame and Glory will find a few that have the race as their main target of the season way too good for him.
it looks like workforce now
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