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If DT goes to the USA , just remember we don’t have a good record over there and he’s had a hard season remember Dancing Brave after the Arc and that was a much better performance than DT yesterday.
We have a very good record in recent runnings of the Turf. 6 wins. 1 Dead-Heat and the only blemish in the last 8 runnings was at Lone Star when Sulamani and others went to the Canadian International and Jamie Spence pulled off one of his special North American rides.
I don’t believe that the 12 Furlong American horses 20 years later are in the same league as Manila, Theatrical and Estrapade and Monmouth, although there are no previous BC Stats, should have weather that suits the European runners better than Hollywood.
I said before the race that the race was weak in that it lacked strength in depth and I think the way the race panned out supports that (well, I was wrong about Authorized so I might as well spin a positive out of my pre-race analysis somehow!)
The favourite was never looking happy (Frankie was actually reported as saying that the horse was beaten before the start of the false straight not THE start btw in response to an earlier post). Coming into the straight proper he was only two lengths and a length behind the eventual 1st and 2nd so if he’d been on form he was in an OK position.
I saw nothing which convinced me that on on-form Authorised or a fit Manduro wouldn’t have won it, although I do respect the opinion that DT is a very, very good and game horse.
Soldier of Fortune is a bit of an enigma though isn’t he? Be very interesting if they keep him in training as he’s one I haven’t figured out yet.
Pengamon
I think thats the difference if its held in California or new York because of the climate. Have you compared results from east and west.I don’t think Authorised looked happy in the race right from the start. The comentator said he was cruising on the outside at one point, but I never saw it. Best keeping the volume on mute.
Carson probably made the most insightful comment about Frankie’s ride which was that if he was going to drop him out the back he needed to get against the rail and get some cover. Instead he stayed on the outside and as a result he pulled hard for about 3/4 mile and thats probably why he run out of steam. The draw certainly didn’t help either.
To my eye the pace looked quick, bordering on too quick probably. Youmzain needs a very strongly run 12f on ground softer than good. Getting his ideal conditions i’d say he’s probably put in the best performance he is capable of. He also looked to be the main beneficiary of DT’s barging. SOF had every chance (I backed him) but just wasn’t good enough – He could be a better horse next year.
In the end though I think the best horse won….. Who said the King George was dead?
[/b]If DT goes to the USA , just remember we don’t have a good record over there and he’s had a hard season remember Dancing Brave after the Arc and that was a much better performance than DT yesterday.
Very true.
Dancing Brave faced rock-hard opposition but passed the lot as though they were standing. His Arc victory is superior compared to that of Dylan Thomas.
I believe even Bering or Sharastani would’ve murdered Sunday’s Arc field.Edited to add – Soldier Of Fortune comes across to me as a ‘Turtle Island’ type of horse.
I think it would be folly to underestimate Dylan Thomas. He’s only ever been beaten once further than 10f. He’s lost only tiwce this year – finshing second both times – once against a horse that may well have beaten him on sunday and the other time on a track where he has failed to act both times he’s run there..
I saw nothing which convinced me that on on-form Authorised or a fit Manduro wouldn’t have won it, although I do respect the opinion that DT is a very, very good and game horse.
Soldier of Fortune is a bit of an enigma though isn’t he? Be very interesting if they keep him in training as he’s one I haven’t figured out yet.
Whatever about Authorized on form winning it (maybe he would, but that’s far from a certainty), I would be very surprised if a horse with the speed of Manduro would have lasted a 1m4 run at a fast pace like Sunday’s. In fact I would take the winner all day over that distance and with that pace. Manduro’s stamina was never really tested. His 1m4 race was run in a much slower time than SOF and we all saw that the latter wasn’t able to match the winner.
I think it would be folly to underestimate Dylan Thomas. He’s only ever been beaten once further than 10f. He’s lost only tiwce this year – finshing second both times – once against a horse that may well have beaten him on sunday and the other time on a track where he has failed to act both times he’s run there..
Did Dylan Thomas really fail to act at York when second to Authorized in the Juddmonte?
I dont think he failed to handle the track at York, he wasnt given a good ride by his jockey that day who got himself into trouble,and by the time he was out the winner had flown.DT is a mile half horse, in the international stakes the pace maker didnt go fast enough.
Perhaps I was generalising, the year before he ran a shocker on the Knavesmire, this year I think Authorized got first run (The gap between them didn;t really change all the way to the line). That coupled with the fact that DT doesn’t run to his optimum at York (I always think it produces strange results York) is in imo the reason he was beaten that day.. He didn;t have fallon on board either which seems to make a difference..
Failing to act was probably not the right statement – Not running to his optimum would have been more accurate..
Does anyone have the sectionals for the Arc yet?
Dylan Thomas is a top class racehorse who is fully effective at 10f to 12f and acts on good to soft and firm ground. He ran right up to his best in the Juddmonte in my opinion, merely beaten by a slightly better horse on the day.
I think people are being very quick to judge horses negatively for one bad run in the Arc. Given its position in the calendar, it always has been and will continue to be a race too far for many 3 year olds especially. To describe Soldier of Fortune as "an enigma" and to downgrade his Irish Derby run because he underperformed once after sweating up badly is frankly ridiculous. Likewise Authorised’s summer brilliance shouldn’t be tarnished by this performance- like it or not, the modern thoroughbred is a brittle animal, which as I’ve said makes the winner’s performance all the more meritorious.
Dylan Thomas is a top class racehorse who is fully effective at 10f to 12f and acts on good to soft and firm ground. He ran right up to his best in the Juddmonte in my opinion, merely beaten by a slightly better horse on the day.
While I agree that Dylan Thomas is effective on good to soft DJ, there is no doubt in my mind that he is best on geniune fast ground. Just couldn’t get to Authorized (who had his ideal conditions) on the ground in the Juddmonte IMO.
I am also of the opinion that fast ground is considerably more important for Dylan Thomas over 10 furlongs than it is over 12.
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While I agree that Dylan Thomas is effective on good to soft DJ, there is no doubt in my mind that he is best on geniune fast ground. Just couldn’t get to Authorized (who had his ideal conditions) on the ground in the Juddmonte IMO.
I am also of the opinion that fast ground is considerably more important for Dylan Thomas over 10 furlongs than it is over 12.
Trackside
While I agree wholeheartedly with most of what you wrote, I wouldn’t be too sure about the last sentence?
In my view DT is better over 12f than 10, though only marginally, whereas Authorized is unquestionably better over longer than shorter, no matter what happened yesterday.Does anyone else subscribe to the theory that the Arc was run at an overly-strong pace? I don’t deal in sectionals greatly but would be interested if anyone has them and could judge whether this was indeed the case but the bare form of the race looks muddling.
.I haven’t seen the sectionals but the final time was strong which hints at a the race being run at sensible, strong, even fractions, so I can’t see any reason why not to take Youmzain’s Arc run at face value. Just don’t ask me why he has taken this long to produce his best run
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