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I think its very difficult to make any predictions until we know how the ground will ride.
Given that Dylan, Soldier, Zambezi and Authorised will all be suited by a strongly run affair I think its almost certain we’ll see pacemakers in action in Sunday.
Is there any chance that a testing 12f on very soft ground won’t play to Authorized’s strengths? The feature of his career so far has been his speed.
The race (and most of the other Gr 1s of the day) will be on the bbc, as well as the Foret and a couple of Gr 2s on Saturday.
Zambezi sun was undercooked in the Niel but Soldier of Fortune was apparently some way off 100% too and he broke the race record on good ground, so can obviously act well on a decent surface.
I’d love to see Authorized win but can’t quite believe he will (a race too many, exuse of stable coughing already been reeled out in preparation). I find Chapple-Hyam almost too bullish, if we are to believe him this year Dutch Art is a superstar, so is Winker Watson etc etc…Chappel hyam’s horses were running fine yesterday….
I didn;t know that SOF clocked the fastest time ever in a Niel – Is that true?
Very disappointing turnout
Look at last year’s Arc: there were 5 contenders, 4 were retired in the winter Rail Link got injured and never ran again.
So, of course there’s a serious lack of depth at 12f.
I reckon that Sunday’s field will be about as good as we could have hoped for in these circumstances.
Steve
Aragorn here are the previous Niel winners and times SOF was indeed the fastest
1988 Fijar Tango Tony Cruz Georges Mikhalidès 2:34.6
1989 Golden Pheasant Tony Cruz Jonathan Pease 2:32.5
1990 Epervier Bleu Dominique Boeuf Elie Lellouche 2:32.0
1991 Subotica Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:28.5
1992 Songlines Olivier Benoist Edouard Bartholomew 2:32.8
1993 Hernando Cash Asmussen François Boutin 2:36.7
1994 Carnegie Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:34.9
1995 Housamix Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:36.1
1996 Helissio Olivier Peslier Elie Lellouche 2:30.4
1997 Rajpoute Gérald Mossé François Doumen 2:30.9
1998 Sagamix Olivier Peslier André Fabre 2:41.3
1999 Montjeu Michael Kinane John Hammond 2:32.8
2000 Sinndar Johnny Murtagh John Oxx 2:26.4
2001 Golan Kieren Fallon Sir Michael Stoute 2:27.0
2002 Sulamani Thierry Thulliez Pascal Bary 3:12.8
2003 Dalakhani Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré 2:27.6
2004 Valixir Eric Legrix André Fabre 2:29.4
2005 Hurricane Run Kieren Fallon André Fabre 2:30.7
2006 Rail Link Christophe Soumillon André Fabre 2:31.9
2007 Soldier of Fortune Johnny Murtagh Aidan O’Brien 2:25.6Would anyone else see the course record as a negative for Solider of Fortune?
I wouldn’t. It seemed a perfect prep run.
if Soldier of Fortune won the prix Niel in record time and Zambezi Sun wasn’t far behind and tenderly ridden I’m begining to realise that, with the O’Brien horses having one of their number as a pacemaker, Zambezi Sun fully wound up + Mandesha and the wild card, the German horse + Authorized I think we should be in for a fascinating race on Sunday.
Aragorn here are the previous Niel winners and times SOF was indeed the fastest
1988 Fijar Tango Tony Cruz Georges Mikhalidès 2:34.6
1989 Golden Pheasant Tony Cruz Jonathan Pease 2:32.5
1990 Epervier Bleu Dominique Boeuf Elie Lellouche 2:32.0
1991 Subotica Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:28.5
1992 Songlines Olivier Benoist Edouard Bartholomew 2:32.8
1993 Hernando Cash Asmussen François Boutin 2:36.7
1994 Carnegie Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:34.9
1995 Housamix Thierry Jarnet André Fabre 2:36.1
1996 Helissio Olivier Peslier Elie Lellouche 2:30.4
1997 Rajpoute Gérald Mossé François Doumen 2:30.9
1998 Sagamix Olivier Peslier André Fabre 2:41.3
1999 Montjeu Michael Kinane John Hammond 2:32.8
2000 Sinndar Johnny Murtagh John Oxx 2:26.4
2001 Golan Kieren Fallon Sir Michael Stoute 2:27.0
2002 Sulamani Thierry Thulliez Pascal Bary 3:12.8
2003 Dalakhani Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré 2:27.6
2004 Valixir Eric Legrix André Fabre 2:29.4
2005 Hurricane Run Kieren Fallon André Fabre 2:30.7
2006 Rail Link Christophe Soumillon André Fabre 2:31.9
2007 Soldier of Fortune Johnny Murtagh Aidan O’Brien 2:25.6I don’t really take much notice of race times since they lure us into a false sense of security. I can instantly pick out some of those listed horses that’d brush Soldier Of Fortune aside.
Personally, I feel that Authorized will take the Arc by the scruff of the neck early in the straight and leave the field toiling in his wake and cruise to a victory very similar to his Derby success.
I’d be interested to know what some of speed figure compilers on here make of the Irish Derby. The time was just the 4 seconds quicker than what Arc Bleu won a handicap off 74 from carrying 9 lb less.
I’ve gone through the Irish Derby card using two different methods of time analysis, and both tell me the same thing.
Either the Irish Derby was the only truly-run race on the whole card, or Soldier of Fortune produced an absolutely exceptional time performance.
The Racing Post have gone somewhere in between by making his Topspeed figure (127) roughly the same as his RPR (126) and hanging the rest of the card’s Topspeed figures off that 127. This leaves them rating the fastest of the other seven races on the card 21lbs slower than the RPRs awarded.
According to http://www.thebettingsite.co.uk there are 15 remaining at the 4-day? stage. A P O’Brien has the following (with current BF odds):
5.10 Soldier of Fortune
9.80 Dylan Thomas
80.0 Yeats
350 Yellowstone
1000 Acapulco
1000 Archipenko
1000 Red Rock CanyonFrom those odds, I’d say it’s unlikely that the bottom 3 will even run, while Yeats price is still to big to assume that he will run, taking into account his ability AND the fact that the stable is a gambling stable (ie – for all intents and purposes, the prices at this stage usually indicate the stables runners or not).
Anton Chekov is also 1000 which makes him unlikely to run IMO
This reduces the field down to possibly 10 runners.
Yellowstone is a HUGE price to place at 38 assuming that he will act as the pacemaker for Ballydoyle. IMO he has enough ability to be placed at least. Sure the bet may fall down but at the available odds, I think it’s worth at least 1/2 a point on the place market.
The whole Zambezi Sun ‘not wound up’ talk is nuts. Soldier of Fortune was hardly being whipped to buggery during the race, was he ? SOF won the race EASILY and in a record time. SOF has been given the typical Arc ‘French’ prepartion. Irish Derby followed by Prix Neil. Zambezi Sun will not get near him.
Yellowstone had the run of the race in the Eclipse and couldn’t beat Authorized and was spanked in the Derby behind the same horse. Whilst he has come out and run well in races like the Gordon and Great Voltogeur, those races are a world away from the Arc imo. You have to be a 130+ horse to win the Arc, Yellowstone has never done anything for me to suggest he could run to 125. I think you’ll be able to get 50’s+ on the day.
I largely agree with Zammo
Betting against the crowd these days almost seems to be case of betting against those who are reading more into race performances than is actually there. Sometimes its simply WYSISWYG.
Quite why ZS id only one point longer than SOF with VC (i love these initials…) I have no idea… Loads of assumptions here about how hes going to come on and how he fits certain profiles blah blah
Maybe he will suprise me, but no way could i back him at 4’s
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