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Did you whack it – JJ?!!
(that’s a joke I’ll have to explain sometime…)
You could of got a couple of points more after the ‘Plant’ flopped at Ascot!
Joking aside…
She was one that was always going to shorten – wasn’t she?! – Will she still be Fav after the Foy??‘Nakayama Festa’ has been kept back for this all year…
should he be such a price this time around (assuming that he’s capable of running the same race again) – meeting these on revised weight terms?
Added: If some feel that ‘Workforce’ has yet to show improved form from 3to4 then on the clock it would be unfair to assume the same of ‘Sarafina’.
SARAFINA TAKES WINNING STEP ON ARC ROUTE
"Sarafina returned to winning ways with a smooth victory in a classy renewal of the Gr 2 Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud on Monday, and her campaign will now be laid out with the 2011 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as its major target. The daughter of Refuse To Bend demonstrated that she has successfully made the transition from three to four years old and has progressed since…
On this occasion,Sarafina won in 2’10”5, breaking the record of the race which stood at 2’12 since 1985.
From Paris Turf:
Reopening of Longchamp
!
Friday, September 2 will be the reopening of the Hippodrome the Bois de Boulogne, which will inaugurate the meeting fall, consisting of eleven meetings, which expires at the end of October.Meeting still very instructive, the day Sunday, September 11 we will attend the three preparatory Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe,
So You Think enters the Ark reckoning after his brilliant victory over Snow Fairy who according to her trainer ran her best race ever at Leopardstown !
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So You Think enters the Ark reckoning after his brilliant victory
Aye, Andy – he’s more chance of Noah calling him than he has of netting Europe’s premier 12f prize.
I was going to post re: her price before…
whilst it may be folly to go against any of these 3yr olds at the mo she seems very short when you cast back to the Arc last year and compare her price on what she has done to what ‘Sarafina’ had achieved.‘Sarafina’ was a 12/1 shot last Oct – having won a group 1 on only her second start – she made it two Group 1’s on her third start when she then went on to do the St Alary – Diane double which hadn’t been achieved since 87′ before ‘Stacelita’ had done the same the year before in 09′.
Now ‘Galikova’ is the same price if not shorter!!
This for a filly that has yet to win a G1 in two attempts. But measuring a horse’s chance by the number of G1s they’ve won (instead of their form) is a dangerous business. Da Re Mi and Stacelita had a better resume than Galikova does now but they were deservedly dismissed in Arc betting. Sarafina, Stacelita, and Da Re Mi never had to deal with a Golden Lilac.
On form and especially race times Galikova looks capable. My assessment is that Sarafina has a slightly better finishing burst, but Galikova can sit handier and will be slightly less likely to run into trouble for that reason. But both will be a decent risk to run into trouble because they take a while to wind up.
Workforce
Golden Lilac
Snow FairyThese are my bets atm. The latter 2 at 80.0 Workforce at 7/1. Personally think Golden Lilac did not run her race lto but we will see. Think she’s defo overpriced if she takes her chance tbh
But measuring a horse’s chance by the number of G1s they’ve won (instead of their form) is a dangerous business.
Hey Presto all will be revealed next weekend re: the chances of Goldi’s ‘lil sister!
As said she may prove much better suited to going over the classic distance…
one worry might be that she has taken in a prep for the Ver instead of using it as a prep for the Arc?As you said – they were easliy dismissed in Arc betting – something to do with
meeting ‘Sea The Stars’
…
Also your are right ‘Dar’ never had to "deal" with a ‘Golden’ –
only ‘Zarkava
‘…
One thing for sure is supportors of ‘Gali’ will be hoping that she breaks her Group1 duck long before ‘Dar’ did!
P.s. we all read form differently – as is apparent on here!
One thing for sure is Dupre has many lines…
and so do some others after this weekend!PPS – I can’t believe that it takes an odds on win before people can give an opinion on whether ‘SYT’ will or not win the Arc!
Meeting still very instructive, the day Sunday, September 11 we will attend the three preparatory Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe,
From the interview gave after his Irish Champion Stakes win, it seems Coolmore are aiming So You Think at the Arc.
Given recent Arc ground, unsure whether he would handle good to soft however so have changed from when starting the Arc thread back in March/April.
Sarafina was unlucky last year, and have already backed her at 10s as well as So You Think at 7s.
Galikova will get 12lb from being a 3 year old filly, and that weight could be huge come the day. Currently 12/1, and will be backing her, and possibly Sea Moon at 10s, to add to the portfolio,
You’re on the wrong fillies lads – Danedream and Testosterone are the ones to be on, 25’s and 400+ on Betfair at the moment.
Danedream has already won 2 Open age Group 1’s and was unlucky in running behind Testosterone at Saint-Cloud – would happily take those two against Galikova.
Martin
Hi Reet Hard; when I was a boy all these runners,human, came from Australia with wonderful reputations and we were sceptical of them. They turned out to be far superior to what we had expected.In fact they were world beaters.Herb Elliott is a name that comes to mind.But there were others.Just a thought.
possibly Sea Moon at 10s, to add to the portfolio,
JJ
– I don’t know if you read this from the Leger thread? Or if you have seen the interview with Stoute on ATR where he talks down the prospects going there…
BAD MOON RISING FOR ARC SUPPORTERS
By The Marksman
Sea Moon, who is a general 10/1 shot with Sky Bet for the Arc, will follow the St Leger route as a red hot favourite to give Sir Michael Stoute only his second victory in the oldest Classic.
Although there has been no official announcement ruling out an Arc bid, Ryan Moore is aiming to be back in time from his arm injury sustained at Goodwood to partner Workforce at Longchamp.
What with ‘Pour Moi’ the bookies have probably already made a mint from all the non runners thus far – added with the likes of ‘Bheki’ & ‘Baraan’…
I feel that the market might be sque whiff with regards to value at the mo’…
I still feel this way
and as this quote suggests it’s probably best not to look to far left field – when you use this criteria to narrow down the field – taking in other stats etc… (this weekend may change my mind of course and I remain open minded! – Plenty on here seem to have multiple cover bets, so therefore might have to add to mine!)
*
"To win an Arc… Those few pounds can make all the difference and they are the reason
, from a punting point of view, why
*Sam Walker said in World Class on the Post 5Sep 2011
Might sound basic that but I still see people asking where is that one or that one when they aren’t even entered for the trials…
For the people that might have missed this:
Baraan
,
will not take part in this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
after suffering a minor setback in training. The son of Dalakhani, had finished third in this year’s Prix du Jockey Club after winning the Gr.3 Prix La Force.
His stablemate
Behkabad
will also miss the Arc
after having suffered a knee injury in his first race this year, when finishing second in the Gr.2 Grand Prix de Chantilly. An unbeaten Group winner at two, Behkabad had been successful at the highest level in 2010 when he won the Gr.1 Grand Prix de Paris.
Georges Rimaud, manager of the Aga Khan Studs in France commented: "Baraan is still on the farm and will come back into training later this month. We are not expecting him to run again this year but he will stay in training at four. Behkabad has had a three-month break since fracturing a knee in the Grand Prix de Chantilly. We have to assess our options before making a decision about his future."
Updated on 05/09/2011.
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