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Read a lot of interesting and varied opinions on this years Arc. Think we might be over complicating things. Pour Moi is an absolute certainty. Won Derby when last coming round tatenham corner (cant recall another derby winner doing that). He hated the course, hated the ground and still won. 3/1 might seem skinny to those saturday punters but the arc is only nearly 6 weeks away. Pour Moi will be odds on come the day. Andre Fabre is a genius to boot!!
Read a lot of interesting and varied opinions on this years Arc.
If you look at how some of the other 3yr olds have taken apart the older brigade then there would seem to be a lot of truth in what you are saying!
I’m not sure about certainty… though I do like the line in blue!!
(See reasons below for me talkng myself out of the "cert"!)
Also I think that most Saturday shop punters would bite your arm off for a 3/1 winner!!
(He was only double that for the Derby… so how short is short?)
Most that I’ve met seem more than happy if it’s odds on and wins!!
An 11/10 against is the ‘Real Deal’ to those!! Looking forward to the Prix Niel! Should be cracking stuff, Meandre and Pour Moi, two of the very best chances for the Arc in my mind.
As Seabird says the Neil should be cracking and also help to answer my question about how short, good or bad a price is.
Here’s where things could get complicated:
If it’s a small field then could he be turned over by his stable mate?
Then there will be the draw & (ground which will be key for ‘Meandre’) – both of these could see the price go out…
One thing for sure is he will need a good run to take the freshness out of him…
otherwise if he pulls like he did in the Force then he is by no means a cert! Then all he has to do (if he settles) is what Fabre said when questioned about tactics before Espsom, "the plan is to come from last to first in a few strides and win."!!!
If he can do that at Longchamps then wow! One thing for certain is that he is the Coolmore numero uno and Fabre has at least two hands on the Arc…
Last year’s winner will need to do what none of the likes of ‘Montjeau’, ‘Hellissio’ or ‘Bago’ have managed to do…
Then there are the raiders from Japan… will ‘Victoire’ show improved form? Backing a horse now that got pulled before his run in Hong Kong due to lameness (he’s had those probs I think) wouldn’t be wise… also dodgy that he might not like the track??
Then there’s the last year’s second – it’d be an even bigger training feat if he could stage a come back after all his time off!
Could ‘Hiruno D’Amour’ be the surprise from the land of the rising sun this year??
Then there’s the rest of the home team… there could yet be more twists to come!!
It should be some race!!
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Of course Zenjah you are correct about the ‘certainty’ quote. As we all know there is no such thing in our beloved sport. We wont know for sure how good pour moi is until after the arc. My opinion is that we shall see something very special and I for one have not been so sweet on a horse winning the Arc since montjeu. From a punting prospective, you only have to look at the ante market to see how good 3/1 will look come Arc day. Closest market rival So you think is unlikely to run, Workforce has yet to prove he’s as good as last year and is Nathaniel (improved yes but had run of the race in KG) really a genuine serious contender?? Sarafina, Meandre, Golden Lilac are all very good horses but I dont think they would get to within 3 lengths of PM. The only possible set of circumstances that could have hindered pour moi would have been a bad draw in a maximum field. However, it looks like being one of the smallest arc fields for years so the draw is irrelevant – especially for a horse who has the very rare ability to quicken twice in a race. Cant wait either way.
Nice post Wilde – you don’t suffer from splinters then?!
I have to say that having had your "cert" feeling at least a month ago…
I like your confidence!!
However – I’m a little different in that the longer the wait the more time there is to change ones mind! You raise some good points (it’s good to have some talk re: this great race again)…
One thing that stands out is you say a small field? – who & how many do you envisage turning up?
I think that we agree about the price – though I wouldn’t be worried about the closest mark rival anyways – in that I think that Coolmore know that he’s no match & would be found wanting coming ’round the bend by one with real toe! – (over that distance)…
Whether or not that is ‘Pour Moi’…
And doesn’t Dupre know that he has one better than him (SYT) anyways… so they need to bring more! I’m in doubt as to whether both ‘Nath’ & ‘Meandre’ will turn up…
they both are part of the same family ownership and there seemed to be an agreement before the Grand Prix that they be kept apart.
Gosden has talked of the Champion stakes for him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him head to a track that he loves! As for ‘WF’ he’s a funny one… was it such a shock that he’s been a twice beaten Fav at Ascot.
I recall a Guineas winner that flopped there savage!! Only to bounce back…
Shouldn’t ‘Poet’ have been handed the same treatment earlier on in the season as what ‘Cirrus’ gave him today at Deauville also giving weight away? With Stoute you never know… but the general opinion on here was that he won a weak Arc last year.
Cant wait either way.
Ditto!
Let’s hope that we see something special…
and remember… Fabre did say that he had upmost respect for the Japanese horses!
Arc winner seen today that is GALIKOVA am on at 25s only Pour Moi or Workforce will beat her.Extra 2fs will be perfect for her only worry that Head said may go for the arc.
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Spot on with reguards Sir Michael Zenjah. Impossible to work out what that boy quotes, if indeed we are lucky enough to get any quote out of him at all. The same used to be said of the genius that is Monsieur Fabre. Truth to told, he would be even worse than stoutey for giving quotes on his horses quality, potential, targets, etc. That was of course before he got pour moi in his stable. Those more cynical than us might say he is mellowing in his old age and is more willing to give more information than he might used to in his younger days. What i would derive from his comments (pre epsom derby) are that this immature, lightly raced 3 year old is the best horse that i have had the fortune to come accross and will sweep all before him. The thing i most like about Fabre, Zenjah, is the respect he commands by saying to the most powerfull owners in europe that his derby winner will wait for longchamp for arc prep, rather than take in a more commercial tilt at the eclipse or king george. How many derby winners do that? Fabre had 2 targets for this wonder colt, one already in bag and the other one is on ice. 3/1 looking oh so big!
Then there are the raiders from Japan… will ‘Victoire’ show improved form? Backing a horse now that got pulled before his run in Hong Kong due to lameness (he’s had those probs I think) wouldn’t be wise… also dodgy that he might not like the track??
there could yet be more twists to come!!It should be some race!!
Very
sad news for the horse and his connections having travelled so far…
Hopefully he’ll be ok – and thankfully it isn’t any worse… that night in Dubai was magic!
INJURY DERAILS PISA ARC CHALLENGE
Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa is out of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The Japanese ace was found to have a leg problem following a workout as part of his preparation for the Longchamp showpiece on October 2.
The four-year-old, trained by Katsuhiko Sumii, was already in France and he will return home for further examination of the injury.
After that, connections will make a decision on the horse’s future.
"On August 13 after training, they noticed that the movement in his left leg was a bit restricted and a vet discovered it was inflamed and that the horse should take it easy for five weeks," read a statement from the Japan Racing Association.
"Because of that, they have decided to pull out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe."
Victoire Pisa was seventh in last year’s Arc and has not run since winning the world’s richest race at Meydan in March.
sad also for the race…
& what with talk of ‘Sea Moon’ being redirected this race could still have more twists than dreadlocks!
At this moment in time, my shortlist, in order of my preferance consists of Sarafina, Galikova, Sea Moon.
Arc winner seen today that is GALIKOVA am on at 25s only Pour Moi or Workforce will beat her.Extra 2fs will be perfect for her only worry that Head said may go for the arc.
Just a couple of things about this one Darren…
is she sure to turn up? Head says that she is a hardy type but she is a very late foal so might they wait until next year?
Also she hasn’t raced in a field bigger than double figures, the way she took time to get going at Deauville would make me wonder if she had the means to get going/out of trouble if she needed?
Also the form there in beating the dreadfully named ‘Slow
Pace’ only puts her on a par with ‘Reliable Man’…
She looks as if the step up in trip will suit but there are a couple of others who will give her a race then – one who she has beaten twice – who if given a lead might be hard for her to catch – esp if Pes gets back as he seems to @ Longchamps…Also what to make of the form when your main rival runs well below par… Fabre said that ‘Golden’ was in need of the run – and it was a shame to see her lose her unbeaten record in such a duff race!!
But the thing that I didn’t like most – was her head carriage here – she looked very awkward – lets hope that she isn’t turning into ‘Lope’ all over again!
… but you will get bigger odds for her now in the Mou…At this moment in time, my shortlist, in order of my preferance consists of Sarafina, Galikova, Sea Moon.
The same thoughts to you Jj!!
Don’t worry… I’ve made a note that you are the first to be on the ‘Moon’! Also re: ‘Sarafina’ my darling from last year who people on here doubted!
Every man & his parrot in the racing journo community seem to be on this one! If you haven’t got a price then this will shorten… in the words of Dupre, "for sure."
Of the older horses she has done nothing wrong… but will she be the ‘Pride’ to a ‘Rail Link’?!! Zarkava,Rubyisgodinthesaddle Where the F are you guys? Miss you both. On holidays,in Jail?Need cash?stay in touch for goodness sake. Fely is ruining every thread on here, come back guys.
Galikova wasn’t herself in the French Oaks, many who follow her including me couldn’t believe how she struggled to go the speed. Jockey later suggested that she felt very lethargic.
In the race before the French Oaks she ran a faster finishing sectional after going a faster pace than Pour Moi (in his Derby lead-up), who ran on the same card. She went a very fast pace in that race so I don’t think lack of speed could account for her French Oaks showing.
I was initially disappointed by her latest win because it wasn’t visually impressive (and of course Golden Lilac failed to perform), but I felt better after realizing that the pace was quite slow (GLilac also pulled early and Red Dubawi pulled all the way). If she improves over 12f as everyone expects her to she will be very interesting.
Pour Moi’s programming from Fabre suggests he deserves to be favorite but Sarafina has a stunning turn of foot as well. I really hope we get to see those two match engines with no excuses
As it stands, Pour Moi and Sea Moon for me…but please, Sir Michael, let Sea Moon do his thing in the Leger first!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Here are the Arc trial entrees…
QATAR PRIX FOY , le 11.09.2011, LONGCHAMP
1 MARINOUS
2 LANCELOT
3 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
4 Windsor Palace
6 SIMON DE MONTFORT
7 LEY HUNTER USA
8 SILVER POND M.PS.
9 FAME AND GLORY
10 HIRUNO D’AMOUR
11 JOSHUA TREE IRE
12 ZACK HALL
13 DANGEROUS MIDGE
14 CITY LEADER
15 SARAFINAInteresting that the first and second from last year are not listed…
QATAR PRIX VERMEILLE , le 11.09.2011, LONGCHAMP
1 MIDDAY
2 SARAFINA
3 Vita Nova
4 SNOW FAIRY
5 SARAH LYNX
6 MODEYRA
7 GERTRUDE BELL
8 MEEZNAH
9 SHARETA
10 SET TO MUSIC
11 La Pernelle
12 TESTOSTERONE
13 GOLDEN LILAC
14 BLUE BUNTING
15 RUMH GER
16 WAVERING
17 DREAM PEACE
18 MISTY FOR ME
19 WONDER OF WONDERS
20 GALIKOVAQATAR PRIX NIEL , le 11.09.2011, LONGCHAMP
1 VADAMAR
2 DORDOGNE
3 KING OF ARNOR
4 Al Kazeem
5 MEANDRE
6 CASAMENTO
7 FRENCH NAVY
8 GENIUS BEAST
9 NAKAYAMA KNIGHT
10 Colombian
11 Seville
12 O’KELLY HAMMER
13 POUR MOI
14 RELIABLE MANgee can I get anymore smiley faces in one post?! – yeah
You can now add ‘
Nakayama Festa
‘ to the Prix Foy! – As it has been updated today…
Someone @ FG must have been on the vino last night when the entrees were put/typed up!!No Sea Moon in Prix Neil does this mean he go for leger i hope so.
And i still think Galikova is the best 3yo in the race and she take the Vermille and the arc.
Very sad that Pour Moi not in race now had to be retired.
Hi Darren I’m not about to try and second guess SMS on where any of his are set to turn up!
I do hope that you get a run for your money though…
‘Galikova’ was the only horse not to shorten with the news this weekend! Good/Bad?
I was going to post re: her price before…
whilst it may be folly to go against any of these 3yr olds at the mo she seems very short when you cast back to the Arc last year and compare her price on what she has done to what ‘Sarafina’ had achieved.‘Sarafina’ was a 12/1 shot last Oct – having won a group 1 on only her second start – she made it two Group 1’s on her third start when she then went on to do the St Alary – Diane double which hadn’t been achieved since 87′ before ‘Stacelita’ had done the same the year before in 09′.
Now ‘Galikova’ is the same price if not shorter!!
This for a filly that has yet to win a G1 in two attempts.
She may well win her next start but it may be her toughest test yet… but if we are talking about a term that is banded about ‘value’ then she looks poor when compared to what ‘Sarafina’ was last year – on what she has achieved thus far….
it’s all about potential and I concede she may improve loads for the step up in trip and run the risk of eggy face! I feel that the market might be sque whiff with regards to value at the mo’…
You’re right it is a shame that ‘Pour Moi’ misses the race – a race that now seems to be falling apart… when earlier on in the year ii looked like it could have been a real big field – stonker!!
It’s funny though… some time ago there was word from France (that can’t be quoted) that a Group1 winner in Britain for Fabre had met with a setback on the gallops.
I look forward to seeing if ‘Byword’ takes up any of his entrees on Arc weekend…there could yet be more twists to come!!
this race could still have more twists than dreadlocks!
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