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Only 5 horses have won back to back Arcs so it is a stiff ask but Danedream’s overall form is the best on offer and her win last year is the fastest ever recorded. It appears to be between last year’s 1,2,3 plus Nathaniel and Orfevre but if I had to pick one it would be Danedream.
It certainly looks that way but don’t they all before the big day?
Aussie Jim called last year’s race a vintage race but I didn’t think it was. At least it never turned out that way.
No Arc is ever the same and winning 2 on the bounce takes some doing.
Last year she went off pretty well much unfancied at 20/1 and all eyes were or Sarafina. Moore for one made a complete hooch of things as his chance had gone by assuming Shareta would stop along with most of the other front runners. Andrew Starke seemed to spot the danger just that little bit quicker than anyone else and the second he entered the straight he applied maximum pressure to his filly. Being that bit closer and finnding the pace she did the likes of So You Thinks chance had diminished to ziltch.
That win followed be other top class performers makes Danedream the Sarafina of this years race and you can bet she’ll be stalked every inch of the way this time and no one on one of the other top horses will be stupid enough to be giving her a 4 lengths start into the straight.
As you say she has the best form overall and she could will again but now they know she’s a force to be reckoned with she’s not going to be winning by 5 lengths this time round.
If Nathaniel runs she’ll be the one doing the chasing this time and those 2 could lock horns a fair bit from home and cut each others throats. That should open the door for Orferve if his jockey can keep him fairly handy to pick them both up in the closing stages if he’s as good as I think he is.
Right or wrong Danedream has a much tougher task this time round IMO but on all known form anyone who advises anyone else not to back her is nuts.
Anybody questioning whether Snow Fairy has the class to actually win an Arc need to consider;
She is a 7 time G1 winner, including an English and Irish Oaks – the latter by 8L.
and…
– She hadn’t won a race last summer prior to a very good run when finishing 3rd at Longchamp.
– This time around she is unbeaten, being especially impressive LTO.
– Frankie rode a great race on her at Leopardstown but Ryan Moore has ridden her 6 times (all in G1 company) and won on her every time. Assuming he is back to full fitness he’ll surely resume the partnership in France.
– There are absolutely no concerns over her ability to travel prior to a race.
– No ground dependencies.
– Two wins in November and a win in December remove any fears that can arise during end of season races.
Having said that I do think the current 7/1 is about right but why Nathaniel can be backed at shorter odds is completely beyond me.
Danedream would be the obvious concern.
Lee
They’re banking on John Gosden having spoken with a straight tongue when he said Nathaniel would need the race. Plus Snow Fairy despite her winning globetrotting ways has faltered just about every time she has met top notchers like So You Think twice, Cirrus Des Aigles and Midday twice. Her victory over Gosden’s Izzy Top would hardly have him losing any sleep.
She also found last year’s Arc way too much to handle so she’ll have to have improved a lot more than she has so far this season to actually win and in the Arc she was in the best position of the big 3 to have done something about it
The other neg is Ed Dunlop has so many options open to him including trips to the USA and Japan he could change his mind about the Arc at anytime.
Nathaniel is a different ball game the plan was always Eclipse King George Arc with a prep run in between and so far he’s done very well winning the former and getting beaten a whisker by last years Arc winner in the latter.
It doesn’t take much to realise that Nathaniel’s chance of success in the Arc if he turns up spot on are much better than those of Snow fairy.
You can also get 7/1 about Nathaniel now, which will be nearer 4/1 if the rain comes
Last year’s Arc was exceptionally strong with the first 6 home subsequently winning at the highest level twice or more. The case against Danedream is based on the fact that she has not produced a performance within 5lbs of her win last season as yet this season. If she can reproduce that effort it is hard to imagine that she will be vanquished.
Deep Impact looked like Frankel in Japan – I’d think Danedream could end up blinding value after hacking up in probably a better Ar last year.
I think Danedream’s value too but you’re overstating Deep Impact’s dominance. Japanese fans followed him with particular fervor because he broke a 2 decade Triple Crown dry spell but Deep Impact always had a clear vulnerability regarding his ability.
He was beaten fair-and-square before the Arc by a horse who simply outsprinted him in a steadily-run race. Deep Impact was classy but his stamina stood out more than his speed (he holds the 2 mile world record after all). When he won he usually had pacemakers ensuring a good gallop. His Arc price was smashed by the army of rabid Japanese fans on course, but no, he was no Frankel and level-headed form readers (along with a look at his form) would tell you as much.
Orfevre has no such holes in his ability, he’s won cozily every time (he tends to pull up in front so don’t be fooled by the winning margins), slow-run or quick-run, good luck or (mostly) bad luck. His mental state is the query. He’s been beaten twice recently, once pulling himself up in the middle of a race and another time simply refusing to go. So he’s a risk, but has shown more versatility and speed than Deep Impact, along with the required stamina.
They’re banking on John Gosden having spoken with a straight tongue when he said Nathaniel would need the race. Plus Snow Fairy despite her winning globetrotting ways has faltered just about every time she has met top notchers like So You Think twice, Cirrus Des Aigles and Midday twice. Her victory over Gosden’s Izzy Top would hardly have him losing any sleep.
She also found last year’s Arc way too much to handle so she’ll have to have improved a lot more than she has so far this season to actually win and in the Arc she was in the best position of the big 3 to have done something about it
Midday’s wins over Snow Fairy were: 1. a 12 furlong race in the middle of SF’s 3yo season, and 2. last year when SF was 2nd up after losing to So You Think 1st up by NINE lengths. SF of course got close to So You Think after those two runs, which tells you just how unfit she was first-up. I think the connections’ contention that she would come on for the Midday defeat run was reasonable. Snow Fairy then beat her in the Champion Stakes. Was Midday was below par by then? In my view collateral form through the likes of So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey (beat Midday in Coronation Cup albeit over 12f) suggests peak fitness Snow Fairy MIGHT be better than peak Midday, despite the losing head-to-head record.
The victory over Izzi Top was first-up off a 280 day break due to injury. And Snow Fairy was quite clearly unlucky in the Champion Stakes behind CdAigles. There is also collateral form through Cirrus Des Aigles using SNA and Sarafina, and Snow Fairy did beat him when winning in Hong Kong over 10f.
With all that said I was on Snow Fairy in the Arc last year. I think the quickly run 12 furlongs really blunted her finish so I can’t be with her at the price.
Orfevre has no such holes in his ability, he’s won cozily every time (he tends to pull up in front so don’t be fooled by the winning margins), slow-run or quick-run, good luck or (mostly) bad luck. His mental state is the query. He’s been beaten twice recently, once pulling himself up in the middle of a race and another time simply refusing to go. So he’s a risk, but has shown more versatility and speed than Deep Impact, along with the required stamina.
That’s surely all relative to other Japanese horses. Japanese horses don’t compete around Europe so other than the trial race it is little more than guesswork as to his relative merit. Those on at big prices may have done well but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic judged on Sunday’s race. He had the race set up for him but was relatively hard ridden to beat a tenderly handled Meandre. The close proximity of Joshua Tree does nothing for the form. I did notice that with the exception of the Derby where he beat a horse who hasn’t won a race since all his form (whatever that amounts to) is on quick ground.
They’re banking on John Gosden having spoken with a straight tongue when he said Nathaniel would need the race. Plus Snow Fairy despite her winning globetrotting ways has faltered just about every time she has met top notchers like So You Think twice, Cirrus Des Aigles and Midday twice. Her victory over Gosden’s Izzy Top would hardly have him losing any sleep.
She also found last year’s Arc way too much to handle so she’ll have to have improved a lot more than she has so far this season to actually win and in the Arc she was in the best position of the big 3 to have done something about it
Midday’s wins over Snow Fairy were: 1. a 12 furlong race in the middle of SF’s 3yo season, and 2. last year when SF was 2nd up after losing to So You Think 1st up by NINE lengths. SF of course got close to So You Think after those two runs, which tells you just how unfit she was first-up. I think the connections’ contention that she would come on for the Midday defeat run was reasonable. Snow Fairy then beat her in the Champion Stakes. Was Midday was below par by then? In my view collateral form through the likes of So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey (beat Midday in Coronation Cup albeit over 12f) suggests peak fitness Snow Fairy MIGHT be better than peak Midday, despite the losing head-to-head record.
The victory over Izzi Top was first-up off a 280 day break due to injury. And Snow Fairy was quite clearly unlucky in the Champion Stakes behind CdAigles. There is also collateral form through Cirrus Des Aigles using SNA and Sarafina, and Snow Fairy did beat him when winning in Hong Kong over 10f.
With all that said I was on Snow Fairy in the Arc last year. I think the quickly run 12 furlongs really blunted her finish so I can’t be with her at the price.
I’d have to side with Midday as things stand and without reservations
Midday who had a few tough races at 5 had gone by the time she ran in the Champion and went off at 8/1 which was huge considering she had beaten Snow Fairy easily despite veering all over the shop, in the Nassua was it? . She was never really going in the Juddmonte and looked to have come to the end of her tether at that stage before she ran flat as a pancake in the Champion Stakes. She had one more run in the USA and ran another lifeless race then was retired.
Midday was one of the best around as a 4 year old but that was then and this is now. As things stood at the end of last season Snow Fairy is not as good as Midday IMO was but the clock is ticking.
Ed Dunlop is keen to have her run next season and she could improve past the Cecil filly, maybe she has already this season who knows?
The acid test for Snow Fairy will be the Arc. I think she’s better than last years run as she came under pressure way too early for my liking but up to now she has lacked that final kick it takes to win against the very best.
As you probably know I already backed her at big odds and laid most of it off because like you I cant see her winning but it’s very much a case of
Hands up anyone who will be surprised if she does.
That’s surely all relative to other Japanese horses. Japanese horses don’t compete around Europe so other than the trial race it is little more than guesswork as to his relative merit. Those on at big prices may have done well but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic judged on Sunday’s race. He had the race set up for him but was relatively hard ridden to beat a tenderly handled Meandre. The close proximity of Joshua Tree does nothing for the form. I did notice that with the exception of the Derby where he beat a horse who hasn’t won a race since all his form (whatever that amounts to) is on quick ground.
You’re right on ground concerns too, another reason I think he’s under the odds. I don’t think the Prix Foy was set up for him at all though, he had to come from last in a dead sprint.
Europeans tend to swerve the Japan Cup in favor of the BC Turf, Melbourne Cup, Dubai, and HK Vase because Japan is reliably top class. Historically they’ve done well on their travels, and in the past 12 months Rulership trotted up in Hong Kong (I’d forgive his earlier Dubai run as he overraced fiercely), and Hiruno D’Amour disappointed in the Arc but beat St Nicholas Abbey and ran Sarafina close in the Prix Foy. Danedream was 3 lengths 6th in the Japan Cup after Arc win but we can forgive for a myriad of reasons (held up due to bad draw, maybe pace not ideal, end of season).
Snow Fairy’s Japanese wins the past two years were in a soft G1, a fillies & mares race the very top females (like last year’s Japan Cup winner Buena Vista) dodge in favor of the Japan Cup.
this looks a poor arc to me. I can’t see this orfevre winning. maybe i’m biased because it’s good one of the worst names i’ve ever come across (can you recall an arc winner with such a terrible name?
) but that prix foy win didn’t look that impressive to me in any case. besides has a japanese horse ever won an arc? and they’ve had stronger contenders before, like deep impact.don’t like danedream for the only reason that it’s difficult to win back-to-back arcs, but as the opposition is so poor maybe this is the year to break the trend.
tbh if frankel was in the race (and its a shame he isn’t) I think he’d jizz home from this lot by 10 lengths. in the circumstances the value call is probably nathaniel. he had the speed to win an eclipse and you need tactical speed to win an arc. gosden and buick have carried all before them this season so it would be fitting for them to sign off with a big one.
this looks a poor arc to me. I can’t see this orfevre winning. maybe i’m biased because it’s good one of the worst names i’ve ever come across (can you recall an arc winner with such a terrible name?
) but that prix foy win didn’t look that impressive to me in any case. besides has a japanese horse ever won an arc? and they’ve had stronger contenders before, like deep impact.don’t like danedream for the only reason that it’s difficult to win back-to-back arcs, but as the opposition is so poor maybe this is the year to break the trend.
tbh if frankel was in the race (and its a shame he isn’t) I think he’d jizz home from this lot by 10 lengths. in the circumstances the value call is probably nathaniel. he had the speed to win an eclipse and you need tactical speed to win an arc. gosden and buick have carried all before them this season so it would be fitting for them to sign off with a big one.
Workforce was a truly appalling name.
I think a forgotten horse here is St.Nicholas Abbey, he must be value at near 4 times the price of Danedream. Remember he was just 1.5L off Danedream & Nathaniel in the KG after a less than inspiring ride. He again was given a tough task last time out letting 2 proven 10F G1 winners get a run on him.
If as many of us think Frankel would slaughter this field, then his 7L beating over a trip probably short of his best looks pretty good in the context of this race with Farhh franking the form albeit over a mile next time out.
If given a good ride I can see him being in the 1st 3.
it’s good one of the worst names i’ve ever come across (can you recall an arc winner with such a terrible name?
)"Orfevre" is actually named after his father "Stay Gold" and his mother "Oriental Art".
this looks a poor arc to me. I can’t see this orfevre winning. maybe i’m biased because it’s good one of the worst names i’ve ever come across (can you recall an arc winner with such a terrible name?
) but that prix foy win didn’t look that impressive to me in any case. besides has a japanese horse ever won an arc? and they’ve had stronger contenders before, like deep impact.d
Was Peintre Celebre impressive in his Arc trial?
Never knowing much about the horse
I have, actually, always loved the name. Is Snow Fairy still running, by the way?
I see an article at the SL site has an interview with Ichiro Tsuji, an editor for the Thoroughbred Pedigree Centre, in which he rates Orfevre behind Deep Impact and sees Snow Fairy as his biggest rival in the Arc. He also believes he could possibly beat Frankel at 10f and beyond, a rather lofty claim.
I see an article at the SL site has an interview with Ichiro Tsuji, an editor for the Thoroughbred Pedigree Centre, in which he rates Orfevre behind Deep Impact and sees Snow Fairy as his biggest rival in the Arc. He also believes he could possibly beat Frankel at 10f and beyond, a rather lofty claim.
Deep Impact will always be Japan’s most popular horse or close to it. Interesting that he puts Deep Impact’s Arc loss down to no prep run. His nominating Snow Fairy as the biggest danger, and then Saonois but not Danedream is baffling
Frankel’s the most dominant horse in the world right now and nobody really comes close, Black Caviar second, but I think Orfevre isn’t far away in third if we focus purely on ability, forgiving his mental problems
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