- This topic has 263 replies, 58 voices, and was last updated 12 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
^…I’d be very pleased with that parlo, perhaps less the Japan Cup, I don’t think that’s her race, but the other two I like very much…
thanks for letting us know…
Orfevre is a "he", Hurdygurdyman. And, Ugly Mare, if you fancy Meandre, then surely No Risk At All must have some claim of some sort given how easily he dispatched Fabre’s horse earlier on this season. Not saying he’s gonna win, but he’s very much the underrated horse in this year’s field in my mind.
I knew that
Cheers
…I notice No Risk At All has been taken out of the Prix Foy due to injury and may not make the Arc. Mr Gallorini was training him specifically for the race it seems, so it’s a shame for all concerned there, it would have been interesting to see how he got on in any case, being rather unfashionably bred…
…the Prix Vermeille looks like one of the best in a long time – Zarkava excluded.
…as the weather should be dry and fine in Paris for the next few days, I think Shareta is the one they will all have to get past..With big doubts about the participation of Camelot and now Masterstroke and Sea Moon together with the loss the Aga Khan’s filly the race is looking easier to win by the day. Danedream on last year’s run is clearly the one to beat but given two hard races in preparation I am reluctant to take 5/1 as opposed to last year’s 25/1.
Next year maybe. AOB has never won the race with a 3yo and never will because they only think of the race in September. If he can’t beat a Group 2 animal like Encke how the hell does he handle a TRIPLE CROWN WINNER in Orfevre?
I just said on here the other day he looked a right horse and was too big now you think he’s too short
One of us has got it wrong………must be you 
Orfevre now clear favourite ahead of a 5 length Arc winner. Crazy.
I think most people who seriously analyze both Japanese and European form would call Orfevre the better horse. He’s the most talented horse Japan has produced in a long time.
But I agree on the prices. Orfevre is a very quirky horse who has simply refused to race in Japan on more than one occasion, and the risk is probably multiplied by the fact that he’s abroad, while Danedream ticks all the boxes.
He didn’t look visually impressive but they absolutely crawled (running the first 7f 10 seconds slower than the 2011 Prix Foy), then sprinted from 1000m out running that 5 furlongs in 57.92 (so Orfevre obviously ran it quite a bit quicker).
On-screen splits for Foy: 96.34 sec to 1000m; 22.49 sec 1000m to 600m; 11.59 sec 600m to 400m; 11.39 sec 400m to 200m; and 12.45 sec to lineWe won’t know exactly how good that sprint is until the card is run and sectionals analyzed, but I have no doubt it was a great slow-pace performance. Meandre has a dizzying sprint and he couldn’t go with the winner. Ground is officially Good-to-soft and Meandre prefers fast ground, but visually and going by the times, the ground’s fast enough
I think Soumillon doesn’t quite realize how slow they went and what a task Orfevre was set. I don’t think he needs to improve much if any on that to win the Arc.
I just said on here the other day he looked a right horse and was too big now you think he’s too short
One of us has got it wrong………must be you Basically you watched a few videos and took a guess. When your bluster has died down perhaps you can explain why he should be a shorter price than a five length Arc winner? Personally, I thought Shareta was the most impressive trial winner.
I never said he was the next coming Stilvi you tube, I only said he looks a right horse and judging by yesterday performance he is. Thanks for stating "Well spotted" all the same
You like Shareta eh?
Would that be the same Shareta who beat a listed winner who went off at 33/1 yesterday? Or is it the one who has 5 lengths to make up with Danedream? Or could it be the Shareta who was totally outclassed by Meandre in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud who Orferve kicked in to touch yesterday?
logically, you do know what logic is don’t you? she can’t possibly beat Snow fairy let alone Danedream as she’s going to have to find 6lbs with the Ed Dunlop filly this time round for a neck beating.
I don’t know as of yet how Timeform will rate Shareta’s win yesterday but her neck victory over The Fugue 116 looks pretty ordinary and despite finishing 2nd last year. Must have been her shiny coat that impressed you because nothing she has done says she can win an Arc of this quality.
Timeform like myself were obviously very impressed with what they saw as, interested to know, I have just discovered back in August before Orferve had even run in Europe the gave him a rating of 131 the same rating as Nathaniel and Danedream. That’s 15 points higher than 10/1 shot Shareta and you think he’s under priced after traveling half way round the world an stuffing a dual Group 1 winner.
This horse travels like a dream which is very important in an Arc and now he has proved he is up to the mark he has got to take all the beating.
Danedream is very good but as we saw in the King George she could have been somewhat flattered by her 5 length victory in last years race. I think it’s a hard call to make as Shareta is no world beater but Snow Fairy and So You Think are both top class on their day. However the were both expected to beat Cirrus Des Aigles next time out but neither did and who else but Nathaniel was even further behind.
It’s a bit of a puzzle to work out just how good Dandream is but watching how much pressure Snow fairy was under so early in the straight, well before Danedream made her move, I think it’s safe to say she wasn’t at her best and if you think Joseph’s ride on Camelot was bad you should watch the pathetic ride Moore gave So You Think who would needed to have been faster than Frankel to win from where he had him turning for home.
The way I see it in my final summary is:
Danedream
has an obvious chance and is so consistently good she has to go close.
Nathaniel
Needs plenty cut to win this but with or without cut I think he’ll get first run on Danedream and beat her.
Snow Fairy
was way too big when I backed her. I don’t think she is quite good enough to actually win the race so I have already laid some of my bet off and most of the rest will follow when there’s enough on offer to cover it.
Orfevre
He’s another I could lay off but chose not to. His win yesterday was described as workmanlike but I didn’t see it like that. When his jockey asked him to take closer order turning for him he made up 4 or 5 lengths almost instantly then his Jockey dropped his hands. He lost some momentum with him doing that but his jockey seemed to make sure he was well balanced before sending him on. Plenty of action in the saddle but he wasn’t hard on the horse at all. Meandre was beaten 6 lengths by Danedream in last years Arc and was only a length behind Snow Fairy and he’s looked a better horse this year.
Yesterday form looks rock solid and with a trouble free run I reckon he could just about win this.Shareta
May try and teal a march on them turning for home like she did last year but people are wise to her now and she’ll quickly have company in the shape of Nathaniel for one if she tries that. There are too many horses in this years race who travel really well for them all to be caught out by her. I doubt if she’ll be in the first 4 and will be run over in the closing stages.
St Nicholas Abbey
Unlikely but could cause a surprise if the likes of Shareta goes too soon too quick. The way Joseph rides him and that is unlikely to change, he could run past the lot of them if they have gone too fast up front. He just that little bit short of top drawer so he’s one to avoid unless you are looking for luckies
Sea Moon
If he turns up his style of running would give him a good chance to prove he’s much better than his last run. I would expect him to come wide late and fast and be cutting them down in 2’s and it would be no surprise to see him win. I backed him ew along tome ago for this but have no idea what SMS’s plans are.
Camelot
Well Wally Swinburn thinks he should run but he’s not the trainer. 3yo have ruled the roost in recent years and Camelot getting weight from his elder so late in the year would have an obvious chance. I foolish said he wouldn’t but numbnuts here forgot about his allowance.
He’s no Nijinsky that’s blatantly obvious but there are no Sea Bird II’s in this line up unless Orferve is
and he’s bound to go well if Aiden sends him.I would as if he’s going to win an Arc it would be when getting weight off his elders.
Camelot aside who I’d slip into 3rd spot were he to run I think it looks a pretty straight forward Arc this year and pretty much agree with where the bookies are now..almost.
1. Orferve
2. Nathaniel
3. Danedream
4. Snow FairyI no for you lot this probably isn’t a big bet but to me it is!
Had £90 win on orfevre months ago at 25/1 and I don’t care if they do say he was workmanlike fact is he run he won and should now turn up at arc day with a chance at about 3-4/1 I couldn’t be happier. Especially as I backed him before he finished like 10th in Japan and they said he might not come.
I just look to nakayama festa who I also backed and hope orfevre makes that same amount of improvement in the next 3 weeks and by all reports he’s in a different league to him so am really hopeful.
I am most worried by danedream had £20 win on her last year and will always respect german horses. And I still expect fabre to have an ace up his sleeve…is masterstoke entered?
Only 5 horses have won back to back Arcs so it is a stiff ask but Danedream’s overall form is the best on offer and her win last year is the fastest ever recorded. It appears to be between last year’s 1,2,3 plus Nathaniel and Orfevre but if I had to pick one it would be Danedream.
It is very difficult to know how good the horses that Saonois beat in the Niel actually are, but the way he quickened through the field off a slow pace when the rest of the field would also have been trying to quicken was very taking.
His win in the Jockey-Club was somewhat overlooked because it was a messy race. A French trained 3yo in the Arc makes more appeal than any horse from this side of the channel, particularly this season.Camelot has disappeared from the betting. I settled on Danedream at 7/1 just after she beat Nathaniel. They were neck and neck in the betting at the time and I had reservations about Camelot. I worked on the principles that Danedream has been there and done it, whereas Nathaniel is looking at having to travel and face a different racecourse, in a race which I do not associate with his trainer. Admirable though Nathaniel is he has now been mown down by a finisher twice and gave me palpitations on the occasion he managed to hold Farhh off. At as low as 5/1 now, he is no value for me. Orfevre looks too short to me, I don’t think beating Meandre in a Gp 2 with a modest looking supporting cast warrants making him favourite for this. I am reasonably confident Danedream will do the double and each way at 7/1 looks pretty much a bet to nothing. I never gave her the credit for winning last year but we have kissed and made up now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Building up to be a cracking race, even without both Frankel and Camelot it is still looking to be a very strong field this year me thinks.
betting wise I wish I could get the 25/1 stuparkes44 took but at current odds my shortlist are as follows.
1. Saonois – French 3 yr old and won the Prix Niel with more in hand than at first impression me thinks and even A. Fabre has paid complement on the the horse.
2. Shareta – looks to be going from strength to strengths, think she has improve alot from 3 -4 and may still improve for the arc, of course will need to! French filly and knows the track well all which don`t hurt.
3. Snow Fairy – If I were going to battle will be my pick for sure!
all heart and as tough as they come, does she have the class for an arc is the question, well I keep underestimating her and she keeps proving so why not!4.) Masterstroke – A. Fabre factor!
I will need to narrow them down to 2.
I wouldn`t argue with the current market leaders (except not sure why Nathaniel is so short), but at current odds will pass on Danedream and Orfevre.
Orfevre now clear favourite ahead of a 5 length Arc winner. Crazy.
I think most people who seriously analyze both Japanese and European form would call Orfevre the better horse. He’s the most talented horse Japan has produced in a long time.
But I agree on the prices. Orfevre is a very quirky horse who has simply refused to race in Japan on more than one occasion, and the risk is probably multiplied by the fact that he’s abroad, while Danedream ticks all the boxes.
He didn’t look visually impressive but they absolutely crawled (running the first 7f 10 seconds slower than the 2011 Prix Foy), then sprinted from 1000m out running that 5 furlongs in 57.92 (so Orfevre obviously ran it quite a bit quicker).
On-screen splits for Foy: 96.34 sec to 1000m; 22.49 sec 1000m to 600m; 11.59 sec 600m to 400m; 11.39 sec 400m to 200m; and 12.45 sec to lineWe won’t know exactly how good that sprint is until the card is run and sectionals analyzed, but I have no doubt it was a great slow-pace performance. Meandre has a dizzying sprint and he couldn’t go with the winner. Ground is officially Good-to-soft and Meandre prefers fast ground, but visually and going by the times, the ground’s fast enough
I think Soumillon doesn’t quite realize how slow they went and what a task Orfevre was set. I don’t think he needs to improve much if any on that to win the Arc.
Deep Impact looked like Frankel in Japan – I’d think Danedream could end up blinding value after hacking up in probably a better Ar last year.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.