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This year’s renewal has suffered from some late defections but it has arguably given the race a more competitive look.
Sea Moon; Has consistently come up short at this level. His Hardwicke win was against group 2 performers despite it looking impressive. Clearly not the easiest horse to train given his light record. Was originally earmarked for the Canadian International and may only be in the line-up to give his owner representation in the race.
Get on Sea Moon for the Arc.
May not have won a Group 1 yet EF, but he’s put up two Group 1 class performances in Group 2’s, Voltigeur and Hardwicke. Hardly "consistently come up short". Persistently short of room in St Leger (more so than Camelot) on unsuitable ground. Second in Breeders Cup, again not on his favoured surface. And given far too much to do in King George, a staying 1m4f horse ridden for speed in a slow(ish) run 1m4f race on a sound surface. Sunday’s going will be right up Sea Moon’s street, been impressive each time with give underfoot.
Would’ve prefered a better draw but it is not as important as some make out. Connections (Teddy and Sir Michael) have been far more encouraging than they usually are. Am sure if it wasn’t soft ground he’d have gone for the easier option in Canada, but ground has a major say in how well horses run.
In my workings out only Orfevre has a better chance of winning than Sea Moon. If it is a fast enough pace (seems likely) should get a far greater test of stamina than either the King Geoge or Breeders Cup, I expect an improvement on those efforts and has an excellent chance of at least a place.Value Is EverythingGinge, how many Group 1 winners have come out of the Voltigeur and Hardwicke that Sea Moon won. Only Dunaden was a group 1 winner beforehand, I rate him at 121 which makes him with at least 5lbs improvement to win a mediocre Arc.
I will watch your selection with interest EF. I’ve been mightily impressed with your appraisals over the months I’ve been a member on here. Some fabulous tipping!
However -assuming they don’t get serious amounts of precipitation in France over the next couple of days- I just have this sneaking suspicion that Camelot is going to put some serious amounts of egg on certain faces.
… mind you those ‘sneaking suspicions have left me destitute on more occasions than not over the years.
What I keep asking myself Andy is where are you going to hide if Joseph wins the race on St Nicholas Abbey?….. Oh! and just to put some sugar on it, Frankie finishes 2nd beaten a short head on Camelot
PS have you done the straight forecast?
The question I keep asking myself is,if Joseph could do the weight would Frankie have gotten the ride? In other words does Aidan believe that Joseph is as good as Frankie?
Of course he doesn’t but neither does he think his son is useless.
Did you know that Joseph has a strike rate on 2yo’s twice or more of that of almost every top jockey in Great Britain bar Hughsie but he’s still streets ahead of him
Not bad for a lad you seem hell bent on convincing everyone is useless.
You can say all you like about having good horses to ride but you still have to ride them correctly which if his strike rate is anything to go by he does that and more.
Would’ve prefered a better draw but it is not as important as some make out.
In my workings out only Orfevre has a better chance of winning than Sea Moon.
Speaking as someone who backed Sea Moon pre King George I suspect the draw has put paid to whatever chance he had. No surprise if he doesn’t get involved at any stage.
As for your workings I love to see how they differ from guesswork.
The question I keep asking myself is,if Joseph could do the weight would Frankie have gotten the ride? In other words does Aidan believe that Joseph is as good as Frankie?
I find it very difficult to imagine any jockey wanting to give up the mount on which he has won the Guineas and the Derby. That the said horse is trained by the jockey’s father means that running the horse was considered more important than supposed nepotism.
… I am really disappointed that Pastorius is not running as he would have every chance, but he is Ascot-bound. …
I like this! Pastorius won with a late burst of speed over 10f at (Berlin-) Hoppegarten last Wednesday (just a G3) in fast 2:02 min!
A friend of mine said yesterday : "he even can beat Frankel".
Perhaps the best race of the year is still to come at Ascot soon. (Keep fingers crossed
– and what a chance of consolation for German horses after that bad luck with Danedream’s 2nd Arc)… I am really disappointed that Pastorius is not running as he would have every chance, but he is Ascot-bound. …
I like this! Pastorius won with a late burst of speed over 10f at (Berlin-) Hoppegarten last Wednesday (just a G3) in fast 2:02 min!
A friend of mine said yesterday : "he even can beat Frankel".
Perhaps the best race of the year is still to come at Ascot soon. (Keep fingers crossed
– and what a chance of consolation for German horses after that bad luck with Danedream’s 2nd Arc)Did you see the race guys? He was VERY workmanlike. Sorry but I would very much doubt he is good enough to be placed at Ascot.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ginge, how many Group 1 winners have come out of the Voltigeur and Hardwicke that Sea Moon won. Only Dunaden was a group 1 winner beforehand, I rate him at 121 which makes him with at least 5lbs improvement to win a mediocre Arc.
Eclipse,
In the VoltigeurSea Moon
didn’t just beat
Al Kazeem
, he pulverised him by an easy 8 lengths. Roger Charlton’s horse came a good 1/2 length second to
Green Destiny
in a Group 3 on his next start, who went on to be 6th in the Champion Stakes. On Al Kazeem’s only run this term (has suffered a fractured pelvis) ran away with the Group 2 Jockey Club stakes; looking a potential Group 1 horse himself when beating an admittedly below form
Dunaden
.
Third at York wasSeville
. Beaten just 1 1/2 lengths by
Meandre
in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud and just 1/2 a length in the Irish Derby by English Derby second
Treasure Beach
, (two Group 1’s) yet trounced by a total of 10 1/4 lengths by
Sea Moon
.
Group 3 Classic Trial winnerGenius Beast
in fourth beaten a total of 13 1/2 lengths.
If you take a look at the Hardwicke, Not only did
Sea Moon
beat
Dunaden
, but
Red Cadeaux
too, with both those two finishing in a similar position (distance apart) to their other meetings. What’s more, the latter was only beaten 1/2 a length more (4 1/2 lengths) by
St Nicholas Abbey
in the Group 1 Coronation Cup.
The fourthAiken
was on a roll, won a Group 2 on his previuos start and went on to be beaten about 1/2 a length in the Group 1 Irish St leger.
The FifthJakkelberry
went on to win the American St leger on his only start since.
Sixth homeFiorente
won the Group 2 Princess Of Wales on his next start.
Even seventhHunters Light
has won a Group 3 at Haydock and Group 2 in Turkey on his two starts since.
Of courseRed Cadeaux
,
Aiken
,
Jakkelberry
,
Fiorente
and
Hunters Light
are not Group 1 winning animals, but they weren’t just beaten.
Sea Moon
quickened to win easily, with
Dunaden
beaten 3 1/4 lengths,
Red Cadeaux
beaten a total of 4 lengths,
Aiken
a total of 7 1/2 lengths,
Jakkelberry
8 3/4,
Fiorente
13 1/4,
Hunters Light
17 3/4 lengths.
As the line throughRed Cadeaux
illustrates,
Sea Moon
‘s form is similar to
St Nicholas Abbey
. But where as the Coolmore horse seems best on a sound surface, the Prince Khaled representitive is anything but. Being impressive each time on a soft surface. Hardwicke undoubtedly
Sea Moon
‘s best performance, a Michael Stoute progressive 4 year old. After Royal Ascot he even started 2/1 favourite for the King George but unfortunately got a poor ride. As said, for a stayer (at the trip) to be held up in a slowish run race on a sound surface did not see him to best effect. If that race is ignored we have an improving horse who acts very well indeed on the Arc surface.
The fact
Sea Moon
has beaten Group 2 and Group 3 horses by such wide margins is proof he’s of Group 1 standard.
I agree, he needs to improve to win an average Arc (though not as much as "5 lbs") but I believe the chances of him progressing again are fairly good and wouldn’t need to improve a great deal to beat these (with the possible exception ofOrfevre
). Of the principles in the betting there’s going doubts about at least three,
Shareta
,
St Nicholas Abbey
and
Meandre
.
Camelot
‘s best run in the Derby came on a sound surface and ran well below that form in two starts since, looking less than straightforward. Win or lose, is a ridiculous price.
Saonois
did well to come through from the back in a falsely run race last time, must be better than the distances suggest. However, is another not proven on the ground. Has some wins in 3 year old Group 1’s but we all know what the quality of the age group is like this term… something which applies to
Masterstroke
too, but at least he’s proven to act on soft.
I’m looking at savers on
Great Heavens
and
Orfevre
.
Value Is EverythingThe said jockey did not give up the mount.He could not do the weight.The competition between uncle and nephew is very keen for the championship in Ireland right now,incidentally.Joseph O’Brien is a good young jockey riding for the most powerful stable on earth. But he is not a worldclass jockey yet,no matter what some say.
Any good reason the horse who finished second last year as a pacemaker should not win this year running on her merit?
Any good reason the horse who finished second last year as a pacemaker should not win this year running on her merit?
Going Andyod?
Last year the ground was quite firm (course or race record I believe). This year it’s soft. Shareta is yet to prove herself on such a surface. Third in the 2011 vermaille on a soft surface appeared a good run at the time, but less than a month later improved significantly on that form in the Arc. But if she does act on it will be thereabouts again.
Value Is EverythingMontjeu won in deep going.Will the two Ballydoyle colts handle the deep going?They are both Montjeu stock. How about Gosden’s fillie? She should.
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