private handicapping

[nagwa]

hi everyone great forum.. does any member use private handicapping methods to find their selections

[Hensman]

Nagwa

A horse that has, for example, won its last three races, each over 6f, and now has an OR of say 86, will carry whatever weight is appropriate to 86 in his next race, assuming it is a handicap. He may carry 10.00 in a race of relatively modest class, and one may doubt his ability to carry it. Or he may be the bottom weighted in a much classier race running off two stone less and one may doubt his capacity to perform in that class. He may race again over 6f, or be put into a race of a different distance over which the evidence may suggest he is ineffective. He may have won only on good/firm going and now be running on soft, a going state on which he has a record of failure. He may have had his three wins at Newmarket and now be returning to a quite different track where he has hitherto been consistently unsuccessful. He may be running from a low draw in a 5f at Chester, or be drawn highest in the field. Etc etc.

The Official Handicapper, when updating an OR after a run, has no official knowledge of the horse’s next run – but if the next race is a handicap the rating, 86 in this hypothetical case, will apply whatever the conditions. My approach is to consider all the circumstances of the race that I consider material and re-handicap it, taking into account information about the circumstances of the current race of which the Official Handicapper necessarily knew nothing when assigning his Rating.

[Artemis]

I do something similar using the RP ratings and Topspeed instead of the official ratings. I make a few simple adjustments for recency of form and then look at the rest of the factors such as going, draw, progression, jockey etc.

It’s not strictly private handicapping. Such a pursuit is almost a full time occupation given the vast amount of racing throughout the year. You can cut this down considerably by specialising in a particular area such as sprinters, stayers, 2yos.

There are a lot of people among the forum membership who are very capable handicappers, but haven’t got the time to do it.

[nagwa]

thanks hensmen, artemis,.. are there any private handicapping methods we can use with the new format of racing..using the racing calendar, declarations in the post..

[Hensman]

Nagwa

I draw my raw data largely from the Post’s website, downloading material via Excel’s new web enquiry facility as outlined on the "downloading" thread. When analysing a new race, that data, in the form into which I put it once downloaded, provides the basic numerics, which are then adjusted for factors specific to the race, eg class, weight of runners both relative and absolute, going, distance, draw etc.

[dave jay]

I suppose you mean by ‘private handicapping’ do you produce your own figures and not subscribe to a ‘private handicapper’ ?

The problem with producing your own handicap is data retrieval and storage. That’s a bigger job than actually producing the figures. It can be done though and it can be profitable.

[nagwa]

can you use the racing post to compile private handicap rating..anyone subscribe to the racing calendar

[dave jay]

Yes you can use the racing post, there are a couple of very good threads on here that might help you on your way, by Artemis.

[nagwa]

thanks dave, will check out the posts.

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