June 19, 2007 at 20:41 #2080davidbradyMember
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This looks a fascinating contest with 4 of the 6 runners under 5/1 in the betting and last years Derby winner one of the other 2 runners.
I had originally thought Dylan Thomas was going to be my festival banker but have changed my mind after listening to wiser heads than mine (see "lay of the week" thread).
There doesn’t seem to be a front-runner in this so it could end up being quite messy and tactical (I’m not sure what sort of tactics will be employed on Jarvis’s Italian import Pressing though). In that case, the race could play into the hands of Notnowcato who beat Dylan Thomas in a tactical race at the Curragh LTO.
Another horse who looks vastly overpriced is Sir Percy. I’m not a big fan of this horse as such but he has raced 3 times since the Derby, twice on Gd/Sft and once in Dubai where he was only beaten 1.75 lengths in the Sheema. If we can forgive the runs on Gd/Sft then the RP forecast of 14/1 could be made to look ridiculous.
Manduro ran well in this last year but he seems to be very much a "nearly" sort of horse and I couldn’t have him at the price.
I think Red Rocks is more of a 12f than a 10f horse and a tactical affair with the emphasis on speed at the end won’t suit him.
Pressing doesn’t have the class to win this.
So to sum up – it’s Notnowcato for me but I won’t be surprised to see Sir Percy run a big race and maybe nick it.June 19, 2007 at 21:11 #65496
im prepared to give Dylan thomas another shot mainly on the back of his performance against ouija board in the irish champion who won this last year.June 20, 2007 at 07:53 #65497non vintageMember
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Manduro for me. That trouncing of Turtle Bowl looks all the more impressive now…June 20, 2007 at 08:31 #65498
im backing Dylan Thomas on the basis that 11/4 seems big provided the rain stays away, its still GF this morning as i understand it and that Soumillon gives him a decent ride (im often not his biggest fan) as he tends to leave it too late on occaision imo.June 20, 2007 at 13:38 #65499BulwarkMember
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I think the best form for this race lies somewhere between Sir Percys brilliant run behind George Washington in last years guineas and his rubbish derby win, and at 12-1 I have to side with him.
I never thought he was ever an honest 1m4f horse (especially not on softer ground in coronation cup) and I think his runin the champion stakes looked like a desperate attempt to get a run into him before the end of last season as he looked nowhere near fit. Ive watched the replay of the coronation cup a few times and Sir percy travelled pretty well (till about a furlong and a half out) I thought, he was never going to beat the rest Imho.
Dylan Thomas is a good honest 1m2f 1m4f horse but has never really looked anywhere near unstoppable to me.
Red Rocks is one of my fav 1m4f horses but will need a really fast gallop to figure and he was very lucky to have the race set up for him last time.
A friend of mine was talking to someone from stoutes stable earlier in the year and they reckon that Notnowcato has come on a ton this season but he’s one Ive never liked so wont back him
Manduro looks to have come on a bit from last season, but he was beaten plenty of times in this class then and he’s not beaten enough this season to justify a short price in a race like this, it may be costly to ignore him but thats what im going to do.
Pressing, I know very little about.
Come on Sir Percy….June 20, 2007 at 13:44 #65500
you might not be far wrong with sir percy, the step back may well do him good, ive backed him for a place because i believe he is value but cant see him beating Dylan Thomas, his run to beat Ouija Board is the best form any of these have over the distance today and thats good enough for me.June 20, 2007 at 15:31 #65503BulwarkMember
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Never seen race but disappointed with sir percy, I may still have a go on Sir P in the eclipse if he’s a huge price but he appears to be a total arsehole at present (its usuallly when you lose absolute faith in them that they win though, as Im sure weve all found on many occasions)June 21, 2007 at 08:35 #65504AragornMember
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Bulwark, i’d save your money.. I’d be surprised if he ever wins again… He definitely won’t win at G1 judging by his performances recently.
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