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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/27/kelso/2024-03-02/860144
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/premier-chase/winner
Very difficult for me to desert Empire Steel here. Probably the star of the Sandy Thomson yard these days, and I’m hoping he’s Aintree bound. Reigning champ, and I actually think 7-2 is ok, especially as he loves it round here. Happy to leave him here though, and go to the other end of the market.
Followed Coopers Cross last year, and I thought he was destined for better things this time around. Wasn’t really fussed about his early outings on unsuitable ground, but was more confident when he went for a repeat in The Great Yorkshire. That confidence was misplaced as he put in an abject performance.
Decided there and then to ditch him, and hoped he wouldn’t be in the entries for The Grimthorpe, as I knew he would test my resolve. Delighted that he wasn’t in there, then I seen him here.
He’ll get lapped if he’s in similar form to last time, but if they’ve been waiting for this, I’d have him bang there in this line up. It’s just the fact he’s coming here rather than The Grimthorpe, has caught my eye. I have to bet him at these odds
Coopers Cross 50’s EW 5Pls
I like Empire Steel VtC, and I think the key factor could be Kelso. I’ve taken 7-2, but there’s just a niggle, a small one I might add, that he won’t run here. I hope obviously that I’m wrong
Monbeg Genius looks the obvious one if fit after a break since Newbury. Never can tell with Jonjo whether they’ll be fit when fresh, until they either get backed or don’t… Especially when this is not THE target… Pulled up on reappearance (possibly due to very bad mistake) and 4th of 4 on reappearance a year earlier. I suppose the weights are out for the big one, so not so keeping his ability secret is less important. His jumping does put me off a bit, but should be ok here if not the Grand National. Big positive is he seems to be the progressive horse in the field. Is only 10/1 in NRNB lists for the Ultima. If turning up should be considerably shorter than anything else.
Minalla Drama probably has the best form of these, but hasn’t shown anywhere near it this season, more than once looking as though something amiss. If there’s a strong market move to indicate he’s back in form could be one to be interested in at a biggish price… But otherwise I’ll probably oppose him.
Like VTC, I love the course specialist Empire Steel, is in form and Sandy Thomson is currently in really good form too. I’d be particularly interested in him if an each way price nearer the day (by that I mean 3/1 or more with Monbeg in the race). Otherwise he’ll probably (rightly) start favourite.
Aye Right has been a good servant to the yard and has in the past put up ratings giving him a good chance. But looks pretty short in the betting considering he often makes mistakes, 11 years old and appears on the downgrade nowadays.
Elvis Mail didn’t perform at Cheltenham last time out with a series of jumping errors. However, seems to reserve his best runs for Kelso if anything more than Empire Steel. Return to form can be expected and imo should be quite a bit ahead of Aye Right in the betting.
Thunder Rock is going up from 2m4f. Sometimes has looked as if further might suit, but only run at 3m under rules when well beaten in Brown’s Anniversary. Possibly a little temperamental. These days imo seems more consistent when fresh. This comes only a month since a fair second last time out (then after a 50 day break). Also won Colin Parker at Carlisle on reappearance (197 days break). OR It could be he doesn’t like Cheltenham’s undulations and or double figure size fields… Back to just 7 runners here, although Kelso does have a testing uphill finish.
At a much bigger price, La Rennomme needs to find a lot on form, but has been racing at around 2m4f and is crying out for this type of trip. 16/1 looks tempting, but why not run in a handicap?
Am waiting for now…
Value Is EverythingTopped up Coopers Cross here at 66’s, for all it seems a bit unlikely
Coopers Cross 50’s EW3Pls
Coopers Cross 66’sI hadn’t included Coopers Cross so…
Even on the best of Coopers Cross’s form (second to Kitty’s Light in Scottish National) he’d need to improve giving weight to some better horses here. And three PU’s (soon beaten) up against his name this season, running as though amiss. This may be an insufficient test of stamina too, not only distance-wise but also seemingly not much pace in the race. If Aye Right does not push Minella Drama for the lead (the others are usually hold up horses) this could be slowish in the early stages. So – unless there’s a change of tactics with Coopers Cross – never led and only once raced “prominently” in over 20 starts – can’t see him having the pace anyway. He’s a big price for a reason, I’ve put a bet up on betfair @ 199/1 if anyone wants to lay it.
Pace angle has changed quite a few of my original thoughts:
Aye Right and Minella Drama are better prospects than I originally thought. Tongue strap for the first time on Drama too. Although McCain could be in a bit better form – for me it is not as bad as the 34% rtf figure in the Racing Post.
Possible lack of pace could be against the favourite and not place quite as much emphasis on Thunder Rock’s possible lack of stamina. Monbeg Genius’s improved form (3rd in both Ultima and Coral Gold Cup) have come in tests of stamina… And connections may not want a test here, wanting an easy(ish) run before Aintree – but his progressive profile certainly has him the favourite…
…And as a consequence to all of rge above Elvis does not have as good a chance.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book:
36% 7/4 Monbeg Genius
18.5% 9/2 Aye Right
15.5% 11/2 Thunder Rock
13.25% 13/2 Elvis Mail
9% 10/1 Minella Drama
7% 13/1 La Renomme
0.75% 132/1 Coopers CrossI’ve backed Monbeg Genius @ 85/40 and La Rennomme @ 16/1 and laid Aye Right @ 4.3.
Value Is EverythingLa Renommee at 16-1 is my biggest fancy of the weekend. I think that he has a much better chance than that price suggests
LR will need to improve considerably, WOTR. But seems to have been crying out for this increased test of stamina.
Value Is Everything“I’ve backed Monbeg Genius @ 85/40 and La Rennomme @ 16/1 and laid Aye Right @ 4.3”.
Have now had a saver on Elvis @ 10/1.
Value Is EverythingI really think he can Ginger. I’m stuck in a bit of a time warp and I still like this yard too, despite him being a bit lower profile these days
“I’ve backed Monbeg Genius @ 85/40 and La Rennomme @ 16/1 and laid Aye Right @ 4.3”.
Have now had a saver on Elvis @ 10/1.
As I said in the write up, a marketmove against Monbeg Genius and a market move for Minella Drama may be significant and have laid Genius back @ 85/40 to be just a saver and made Drama now a main bet @ 17/2
Value Is EverythingMaybe I am being much less than a Genius and making a Drama out of market moves?
Value Is EverythingMinella Drama for me, though it isn’t with an abundance of confidence as it’s wide open. Thunder Rock hasn’t progressed as expected, but he’d be my biggest concern. I’m not usually a saver person (or a particularly good judge for that matter) but I may take that approach this time on what will be a relatively quiet Saturday for me.
Elvis Mail is tempting but sided with Thunder Rock.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
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