December 9, 2002 at 10:54 #43666
Thanks All-I dont suppose it gets much better than that.It was because of other peoples suggestions(I owe you a pint:biggrin: ) that I started backing the higher price qualifiers thank goodness I did.Still not too sure about the staking for these so far half a point each way.
Lets see what this week brings.<br>Mon 9th Dec<br>Nat Hunt Non HCp<br>12.45 Ayr-Inn Antique(6 no p/d)2m E Nov H…8 run…f/c 2/1…Lost(2nd 5/2)
(Edited by kersly at 3:21 pm on Dec. 9, 2002)December 10, 2002 at 10:41 #43668
Tuesday 10th Dec
12.55 Sedg-Silver Knight…13 run…f/c 13/8..Lost(2nd)<br>1.25 Sedg-Clonshire Paddy…8 run…f/c 4/7..Lost(2nd)UR<br>2.15 Font-Brockton Mist…4 run…f/c 4/6..Lost(Fell)<br>2.45 Font-Fortunate Dave…15 run…f/c 9/2..Lost(3rd)
(Edited by kersly at 4:38 pm on Dec. 10, 2002)December 10, 2002 at 16:43 #43670
Todays results displayed the uncertainty of Nat Hunt Chases two more fallers and both odds on,there have been far too many of this type.Will continue to monitor.
kerslyDecember 10, 2002 at 22:23 #43672
As stated before Kers, you gotta forget those odds on things. It aint just the NH mate, it happens on the flat too. The SR of your method means that you WILL lose by including those short priced selections and even with a staking plan you’ll lose long term if you cant raise your SR to around the 80% mark. The occasional good price will keep you in front but it’ll be hard going. Its a good system Kers, but you need to forget betting odds on….. the only reason that I would accept 4/5 (my lowest limit), is that two 4/5’s in a rolling double gives me a 9/4 winner. I NEVER bet at less than 2/1, if I have money on a GG that wins at less than 2’s, I’ll just chuck it all on the next GG, 2/1 is the minimum acceptable figure IMO. That means that anything better than a 33% SR is good for me, with that SR I cannot lose……..<br>:smiley:
MrEDecember 11, 2002 at 11:20 #43673
Hi Mr E,<br>Backing up what you and others have said.Ive unearthed more records of this idea that Id forgotten about and they make interesting reading.The records are from four years ago.I notice that I left out odds on selections then but interestingly included hcps.The records go from mid Dec to Mid April and show a profit on all selections.Certain types of races fared better than others.Types of races which didnt show a profit were;<br>AW 3-y-o Mdns<br>AW 3-y-o Sellers<br>AW App Hcp<br>AW Claimers<br>NH Mdn Chases<br>NH Sell Hcp H
I mention this as this may well be a further way of finding the best races to bet in.Surprisingly Hcp Chases and Nov Chases ended up in profit.<br>Importantly no odds on selections were considered.I realise it was only a snapshot of what may happen-food for thought.
Wed 11th Dec<br>Flat (AW)<br>12.15 Ling-Contractor-2-y-o Mdn..11run..f/c 9/4..Won 7/4<br>1.15-Ling-Beauvrai-2-y-o Nov St..7 run..f/c 2/1..Won 1/1
(Edited by kersly at 10:36 am on Dec. 12, 2002)December 12, 2002 at 10:41 #43675
Taking on board suggestions(Thankyou)as from today no f/c odds on selections will be considered in any type of race.Leaving them out doesnt look like Ill miss out on much,hopefully a few points will be saved.
Thursday 12th Dec<br>12.05 Ludlow-Son Of A Gun..2m F Cl H..18 run..f/c 9/4..Lost(3rd 7/2)<br>12.25 Taunton-Old Marsh..2m1f C Nov H..14 run..f/c 0/30..Lost(Carried Out-thats a new one)
(Edited by kersly at 11:00 am on Dec. 13, 2002)December 13, 2002 at 11:05 #43676
Friday 13th Dec
1.20 Donc-Dazzling Rio(6 no adj TS)2m.5f G Sell H..20 run ..f/c 9/4…Lost<br>3.00 Donc-Il Cavaliere(6 no adj Ts)2m3.5f E Nov H..18 run..f/c 2/1…Lost(2nd)
This Nat Hunt lark is a bit chancey-selections have fallen,been brought down,pulled up, carried out.Its Friday 13th what else can happen?:o
(Edited by kersly at 11:21 am on Dec. 13, 2002)<br>
(Edited by kersly at 5:06 pm on Dec. 13, 2002)December 13, 2002 at 11:55 #43679
C’mon Kers, you can’t keep knocking NH racing cos of a few poor results. You have also benefitted in a big way by the fallers, U/R, etc., I watched the race where Petolinsky won @ 33/1 for the system and it only just held on from a late run from Bathwick Annie and Bathwick Annie had just been seriously hampered by a faller, so the luck was in your favour that time …. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :biggrin: …. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â gotta take the good with the bad and go with the flow, nothing wrong with the jumpers or the flat, they both give you a chance to pit your wits and come out on the good side…… Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â racing…. I love it all…. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :smiley:
MrEDecember 13, 2002 at 14:29 #43680dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
Hello Chaps,<br>I can see why you are omitting the odds-on shots and totally agree with your reasoning but from a system analysis point of view you are also eliminating 50% of your data.
They are not viable as bets agreed.
Just a point!December 13, 2002 at 17:04 #43681
Hi Mr E.<br>Its only tongue in cheek Mr E Im aware of all the NH possibilities.One thing I do think is that prices are generally low for the risks taken;)
Hi Dave,<br>I am recording all selections so I can see the type of races that may give an edge.After a while Ill analysis and note if there are any trends.
Cheers-kerslyDecember 13, 2002 at 17:08 #43683
Now thats strange wording Dave, I dunno wether you agree or not now…. mmmm…. yep, I’m confused….. Although I think that betting odds on is NOT the way to go, I dont think you can take the RP’s forecast as being even remotely accurate. By refusing a bet that the RP forecasts as odds on will mean that you will lose a fair amount of odds AGAINST winners, I know cos I’ve been there. Less than a month ago I was to bet on a GG that the Post had as 8/11, I passed because of that, the horse won at 13/8 so I missed a good return. Your right in saying not to bet odds on but wrong in taking the RP’s prices as gospel…….
MrEDecember 13, 2002 at 17:13 #43685
Sorry Kers… our posts crossed, you posted whilst I was still poking away at my keyboard with one finger…. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :smiley:
MrEDecember 14, 2002 at 10:54 #43687
Sat 14th Dec<br>Flat(AW)Non Hcp<br>1.30 Ling-Dubonai..12 run…f/c 8/1…..Lost<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.55 Chelt-Supreme Catch..10 run…f/c 1/1…..Lost<br>2.10 Donc-Bow Strada..8 run…f/c 6/4…….NR<br>2.55 Hayd-Vol Solitaire..8 run…f/c 5/4……Lost
(Edited by kersly at 11:10 am on Dec. 15, 2002)December 16, 2002 at 10:23 #43690
Monday 16th Dec<br>Flat(AW)<br>3.45 Wolvs-Perfect Echo…13 run…f/c 4/1….Lost
Nat Hunt<br>12.55 Newc-Cruz Santa…10 run…f/c 11/8…Lost
(Edited by kersly at 10:25 am on Dec. 16, 2002)<br>
(Edited by kersly at 4:47 pm on Dec. 16, 2002)December 16, 2002 at 16:59 #43692
Terrible run at the moment particularly Nat Hunt selections.<br>Breakdown of Nat Hunt selections–<br>3/1,L,L,L,L,L,4/5,L,L,L,8/13,33/1,11/8,1/1,4/9,5/4,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L.<br>All 1 point each way selections apart from the 33/1 which was taken at half a point each way.<br>Selections 28 Winners..8 <br>Staked 28 points..Returned 40.47(+12.47)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat AW selections-all 1 point win selections
L,L,L,5/2,L,L,7/4,1/1,L,L.<br>Selections 10 Winners 3<br>Staked…10 Returned 8.25(-1.75)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Combined -Staked 38 points..Returned..48.72(+10.72)
Only the 33/1 each way has kept the idea in profit
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