Playing Percentages

[Bricoman]

Hi All

I’m formulating a system using Alan Keyte’s Naps, looking at his strike Rate % for 2002 for CLASS, COURSE, DISTANCE, GOING, TRAINER, JOCKEY, RACE TYPE & SEASON IN THE "Tipster Analysis" section of the Racing Post.

Basically, If I think that the average % (% Chance) of the above groups is above a 60% cut off point then I will bet, If it’s below, the bet is off. Hopefully this will improve my own strike rate and weed out the crap tips!

Results so far:

15/01 63% Chance – Won by 12L (4/5F)<br>16/01 73% Chance – Won by 7L (1/3F)<br>17/01 74.25% Chance – Won by 4L (8/13F)<br>18/01 43.88% Chance – Lost by 6L (Evs Fav)

His Nap for today is at Fontwell (meeting abandoned), but it would have had a 74.38% Chance if it had run, so I would have had a bet.

Regards

Bricoman

[Matron]

Hello Bricoman.

Welcome to this part of TRF.

Good luck with your system.

Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

P.S. – don’t take any notice of MrE – its his age you know.:laugh:

[Bricoman]

Cheers Matron

Thanks for the encouragement! I think I’m on a winner here… all I have to do is cut out every other impulse bet that that bleeds my bank dry!

As for Mr E, I’m sure he will come up with a Staking plan or two for me to try.

Respect

Bricoman

[dave jay]

Hi Bricoman and good luck with this.

I’ll be watching with interest.

[Bricoman]

Keyte’s Nap

2.20 Southwell

Piccled

16% Chance – No Bet Today

Well, not a very good start, I’ve missed a 6/4 winner, then again I havn’t lost either. He had 0% in four out of the eight categories and has a crap record on the AW and at Southwell in particular – It’s shame nobody told the horse.:biggrin:

Just don’t take any of these selections too seriously until I get a better picture.<br>

(Edited by Bricoman at 3:58 pm on Jan. 21, 2003)

[Bricoman]

Keyte’s Nap

3.20 Fakenham

Joly Bey

40.75% Chance – No Bet Today

Against my better judgement but I will go with the system.

Won again, the system’s working in reverse!

I had a chance to analyse six bets at random in December and everyone proved the system ok, even though one lost at 59.63% and one won at 60.88% – just at my cut-off point.

I could do with more data really, could anyone out there help me out?

(Edited by Bricoman at 5:04 pm on Jan. 22, 2003)

[paul66]

Hi Bricoman :)

I have just started using this forum and it looks like you may have found something useful as you have had another winner today :cheesy:

Not sure if you look at the other groups but one way you could increase your profits is using betfair on the internet, I got 20% better price than sp on todays bet and no problem with winning bets as take a small % of profits which bets bookies :cool:

Keep up the good work!

Cheers

Paul<br>

[Bricoman]

Hi paul66

Welcome to the forum…and thanks for the tip.

Sounds like a good idea, problem is, when I’m on dayshift I have to get my bet on before 7am, so I usually end up betting at SP.

I could go out and buy one of those WAP phones, but it dosn’t seem worth it when you are trying to have one bet a day at small stakes.

Anyway, the idea behind this thread is to get a better strike rate, even though it means having fewer bets.

I must say though, it’s just as much fun cheering a horse on to lose as it is to win.:biggrin:

Regards

Bricoman

[paul66]

Hi Bricoman

If you do decide to increase your stakes it is worth checking out betfair, on the internet.

Look forward to seeing your thoughts for tomorrows :cool: racing.

Cheers

Paul

[Bricoman]

Well it’s a Pipe/McCoy partnership today (I must be mad betting against these two).

Keyte’s Nap

1.20 Warwick

Montalcino

50.50% Chance – No Bet Today:o

Don’t forget, this is not the horse’s chance of winning, it’s the tipster’s chance of winning.

I take no pleasure from this race, as Montalcino suffered a broken leg and had to be put down.<br>

(Edited by Bricoman at 4:45 pm on Jan. 23, 2003)

[Bricoman]

Here is another selection that should be a walk in the park…. I wonder.

Keyte’s Nap

2.20 Doncaster

Isio

39.75% Chance – No Bet Today:(

The low % is probably due to Alan not having a win with the trainer or jockey in a Chase last season – also he never won at Doncaster in a Chase event.

I’m starting to have my doubts now, another winner.:angry: <br>

(Edited by Bricoman at 1:30 am on Jan. 25, 2003)

[Bricoman]

Starting Bank at 20 pts (5% = 1 pt)

Keyte’s Nap

2.25 Ayr

Skippers Cleuch

70.13% Chance – 5 pts To Win

I’m going nowhere with this, so I have decided to put it on hold until I have far more data. I will be following him on paper though, and it’s given me a few more ideas that I will follow on paper first.. before posting!

(Edited by Bricoman at 8:59 am on Jan. 26, 2003)

[Des911]

111

[paul66]

Hi Des

What does 111 mean?

Good luck<br>

[dave jay]

A touch of surrealism Paul ?? .. how profound .. :cool:

[Author]

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