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The Placepot is often seen as a low octane exotic without the heartbreak of the scoop6 or jackpot. Don’t be fooled!
For starters it’s much harder to hedge in the latter stages for a variety of reasons
– it’s less clear what you’ve got on your hands. You might expect to typically get, say, 4/1 on your last leg but all you can hedge is the minimum it will pay (ie if the other places are filled by the most popular selections)
– vagaries like changes in place terms, un-named favs etc often make a hedge precarious if not impossible
– the BF place market can be extremely illiquidSo basically you’re left with standing the bet in most instances and this is where you’ll get Nevisoned* – the jockey will drop his hands for third, the two rags that are filling the places with your selection will get overhauled by the first and second fav, who have had the life whipped out of them for the last half mile, changing your effective return on that leg from 10/1 against to 10/1 on for your selection that’s won by a distance etc etc
* Nevisoned
adjective
1) ‘to be Nevisoned’ – to suffer some calamity, usually involving lasers or lizards, in the latter stages of a tote exotic bet that brings the whole house of cards down after you’d come within an ace of landing the crown jewels
I am deadly serious when I say that I doubt that you could find 10 people who have done more placepots than me.
I’ve been a regular player since the day the bet was invented, and I often do more than one perm at each meeting. I’ve been known to do about 10 different permed placepots at the Cheltenham festival, and I’ve lost count of the number of payouts I’ve had of more than a grand.
I’ve also lost count of the number of near misses too, and my worst experience was when I had to cross a horse out of the last leg because I was about a pound short of what I needed, and the bloody thing came paced at 20/1 with two other 20/1 shots alongside it.
I had a 60p perm running on to that last leg, and the placepot paid £19,000.The problem now is that punters have learned how to play the bet, and the really big payouts are few and far between nowadays in comparison to what they were 10 years ago. In those days a 12/1 winner of a 4 horse race would almost certainly guarantee a big payout, even if a lot of fancied horses came placed in the other races.
It doesn’t work in quite the same way nowadays.
With any pool bet where the pay out is less than the amount of money paid in to the pool, you are guaranteed to get poor value.
Not necessarily true, otherwise there would be no American professional punters. Anyway the same argument could be applied to a bookmaker’s overround.
Accumulators are also unsound, any negative edge is multiplied over the selections, so unless you are getting value, you are going to lose quicker than just betting in singles.
This is spot on and obviously the reason why yankees, etc, are pushed in shops.
"Accumulators are also unsound, any negative edge is multiplied over the selections, so unless you are getting value, you are going to lose quicker than just betting in singles."
This is only true if you have a negative edge. If you have a positive edge then that is also multiplied. For punters with an edge multiple bets offer a better ROI albeit with much higher variance and longer losing runs etc. (I promise I will post something about racing soon and stop boring people with maths
)I think more people are learning to play the bet as well.I just wish my selection criteria could bring in the NH placepots.I will be playing them at Chelts ect-but my forte is AW.
I just feel that in AW racing YOU KNOW when you study it enough that your selections are going to run close most of the time using stats to finalise the horses for perms.With any pool bet where the pay out is less than the amount of money paid in to the pool, you are guaranteed to get poor value.
Not necessarily true, otherwise there would be no American professional punters. Anyway the same argument could be applied to a bookmaker’s overround.
Ok, I’ll give you that one .. bearing in mind that US pro’s manipulate the pool, or place bomb bets, which you can’t do in the UK, rather than work on a take out.
The biggest consistent winners in the world make most of their money from pool bets, specifically exotic bets.
Even in the UK many people make more from pool bets than BF, myself included since the introduction of the PC.
Forget about place bombing or manipulation. The point is that you are multiplying your advantage to the power of six or whatever. Someone with a 10% per leg advantage can’t beat the tote on win singles but can crush the exotics.
You’re also missing that pools sometimes pay more than they take in (carryovers).
Interesting stuff there Glenn
Given your earlier post on this thread, you’re obviously not a fan of the Placepot option. Do you concentrate on the Jackpot then.
If your selection process is good, placement % high, "clever perming" good & stakes not too much you can play everyday & you should win money-In the long run.
That is my experience anyway.
The cracking the placepot "system" is based on favs, 2nd favs & 3rd favs with a 1-1-2-2-3-3 perm & it does throw up a winning pool bet-usually to smaller wins tho, as it misses out the bigger wins.
I like to take either fav, 2nd, 3rd fav or best outsider in my bets.Its surprising that the most likely outsider to place-on AW racing does just that when weaker market leaders are identified.
As Nevison says if you are getting 6/6, 5/6 or at the very least 4/6 on the majority of days-Keep playing.Hi gang
my view
,with any kind of bet, is that punters who win money will find a way to win MORE. Losing punters will increase their losses.
The Placepot offers very good money making opportunties in the right hands.
byefrom
carlisleI would say beware putting in outsiders into any placepot perm unless you have a really good reason for doing so. The point to remember is that each leg is only as good as the combined amount of place money running on after it – it is no good finding a 40-1 that places if the fav and second fav have filled the other two places. You get the same result as the guy who has stuck in the fav (but if you are perming up rags you have probably lost a lot of your overall stake)
On a similar theme, it is easy to try too hard to get the favs beaten. Quite often they represent the "value – for example both favs in the four runner races today at southwell were effectively "underbet" on the running on pools and the worst value in both races was the outsider of the four.
Obviously the best placepot shapes are ones where you think a lot of mug money is going to go astray, so late NRs leading to overbet favs is a nice angle. One of the best ways of getting a monster payout is at one of the meetings where there has been a dramatic softening of the ground during the day, leading to multiple NRs and dodgy RP tissues and forecast prices.
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