Placed To Win

[Artemis]

A number of recent posts(particularly those on Van Der Wheil) have suggested that only a limited number of horses in every race are actually there with the intention of winning. I think most people would agree with this, although there would be disagreement about the proportion of ‘non-triers’ in every race.

My own feeling is that there are certainly horses who are not fit enough to win a race they are in, and that some horses are deliberately put into races where they will be unable to compete for various reasons such as outclassed, lack of speed, stamina or unsuited to the ground. I don’t believe many horses are ‘strangled’, or not given their heads, or otherwise deliberately ridden so that they cannot win or get competitive.

With the above in mind, it should be possible to formulate a methodical approach to identifying those horses that are highly likely to be in the ‘Placed to Win’ category and those who are not. Having given this a bit of thought, I’ve come up with the following:

Horses likely to be ‘Placed to Win’

1. Those running under a penalty for a win before they are re-assessed, and possibly those reappearing quickly after a run which will cause them to be raised by the handicapper.

2. When a top jockey is booked in advance by a stable that doesn’t normally use that jockey.

3. When a horse travels a long distance(involving considerable expense) to a distant venue, provided it is not just sharing the horse box with a well fancied stable mate.

4. Horses from stables where every horse with the form to be competitive is there to win, i.e. most of the top stables in handicaps, especially those with wealthy patrons who expect their horses to be always trying and do not rely on pulling off a ‘coup’ to pay the bills.

5. Horses attracting significant market support which is not commensurate with recent form. By significant, I would say a difference of at least 10 per cent in probability terms between the RP forecast and the current price. e.g. evens down to 4/6, 6/4 down to evens, 4/1 down to 9/4,
10/1 down to 4/1, 25/1 down to 7/1.

6. All horses in Group races except pacemakers. No point in running horses in these races unless they have some sort of chance, even if it’s just for minor place prize money.

Horses likely to be Placed Not to Win

1. Horses returning from a long absence which are not in stables mentioned in (4) above, and most horses having their first run which are not in stables mentioned in (4).

2. Horses ridden by inexperienced apprentices or conditionals drawing the full allowance.

3. Horses from stables near to the course(within 50 miles) that have no obvious form chance.

4. Horses from any stable other than those mentioned in (4) which drift significantly in the betting market. In the case of drifters, a drift of 5 per cent should be enough to indicate a lack of interest in the horse’s prospects by those who are close to the stable.

That’s about it. If anyone else has anything to add before I try to apply this to some real cases, I would be glad to hear it, Remember, there are laws against slander, so no names please!

[dave jay]

Nice one Artemis .. have you had any thoughts on what sort of price you are going to look for?

I could knock you up a little place calculator in excel, drop me an email if you want one.

[Artemis]

Hi Dave,

I’ll give people a chance to add their thoughts before I decide what use to make of it.

I don’t see it as a separate’system’, more of a method of checking if the horse you are interested in is likely to be there to do the business or not.

[quadrilla]

Artemis

Can I suggest – drop in class. When a winner is a drop in class, there is normally no other hints ( speed or form ) of a winning performance. Other than the lower quality of competition can leave an opportunity for a win with a little bit extra effort.

[Artemis]

quadrilla,

Thanks for the suggestion.

A drop in class is a mixed signal to me. The horse usually has a better chance in a lower grade, but there is a negative aspect in that the horse has usually failed to cut the mustard in its present grade. Compare this with horses moving up in class who are often found wanting in the higher grade, yet they are usually progressive enough to warrant having a shot at it. It’s a difficult one…… for me, anyway. I’m rarely confident about it.

[Have fun]

What about the trainers strike rate at the course some trainers like to win certain races, just a thought

[JimF]

Artemis,

I’m not sure about the first one on your list, running under a penalty. I can see where you are coming from, but ages ago I looked at the stats and they were less than encouraging. Does anyone have recent stats?

On a practical note, would there be enough time in the day to diligently apply your list?

[Hensman]

Artemis

I’ve one addition to suggest, courtesy of "Marvex" in a booklet written more than fifty years ago: when a proven apprentice is booked to ride a horse from another stable in a decent race.

William Buick’s "outside" rides during the recent turf season have been classic illustrations of the idea.

[maggsy]

Jim F according to my figures this works well on the flat espiecally AW if you apply some logical rules to make it more selective. Doesn’t work as well for jumpers though. Don’t know why that is.

[Formath]

How about caution when considering females racing against male horses. The stats are about 17% on the Flat, do’t know about the jumps

[Artemis]

Thanks for the suggestions,

Henman,

I agree. A good apprentice claiming 3 or 5 lbs is often sought out by certain trainers to ride horses with a sound chance, in much the same way as they might hire a top jockey.

Have fun,

I like those trainers whose horses are always trying to win – there are quite a lot of them who operate in this way. The rest are difficult to read, wherever they seem to go, except perhaps when they send them on long journeys or employ the best jockey or apprentice.

Jim F

I’m looking for signs that horses are there to win. Why run a horse under a penalty if it is not trying?

I don’t think you need to be too precious with such a list. It is only a guide to help you decide whether the horse you think should win is really there to do its job.

Formath

I know fillies generally have a poor record against colts, a fact that most trainers are also aware of. It makes me wonder why certain trainers take on colts with a filly, unless they believe their filly is good enough to win.
Of course, other less reliable trainers might put a filly into such a race knowing that she cannot get competitive. If you trust the trainer, a filly against colts might be a positive, although I’m not really sure about this.

[Lamby150]

Alrighty Artemis

Would you consider class and weight?

Up in Class?
Same Class?
Drop in class?

The above applied to weight? Up, same down?

Also something I have read by VDW concerning dead weight from which I presume means the weight a horse is set to carry is closer to a jockeys natural riding weight. Are these lists readily available and if so are they kept up to date, how often does a jockey have to declare his/her natural weight.

Right handed Left handed, undulating, flat etc as far as course configurations are concerned.

As it is the NH season how many hurdles or fences does each horse need to clear on each track, is this info readily available.

I would love to be in the position to say as VDW did that I have the answer to them all, but unfortunately I do not.

Sometimes though the simple ideas are usually the best so is it right to over complicate matters? I don’t know.

My wife says I am simple but this complicates matters for her.

Ten Four

Lamby150

[Artemis]

Thanks Lamby,

Perhaps you misunderstand my objective. I’m not searching for factors that might improve a horse’s chance of running well, rather I’m looking for evidence or signs that the horse is in the race to win. I know both things can be complementary, but if a horse isn’t there to give its best, then the rest doesn’t matter.

I have a methodical approach to finding horses with a very good winning chance at what I perceive to be value odds and this method is no secret because I’ve posted it here on a few occasions. This present post is about creating a further check list which might either encourage me to make the bet or make me think again.

On balance, I know the majority of horses are trying, but there are signs that help you to to be more confident that your fancy is in that category.

Edit: I don’t bet very much on the jump racing, except for a few interest bets, so it is difficult to relate to cases to make my point. However, I notice that Alfadora(12.10 Cheltenham) ticks most of my form/ratings/ positive factor boxes and looks placed to win. The price is fair (around 9/2) and I’ve had a modest interest. [b:39raya5z]Unplaced 4/1f, let down by some moderate jumping [/color:39raya5z][/b:39raya5z]

[Artemis]

Thanks for the feedback. I’m putting together a few ideas for the start of the flat(turf) as I’m having a rest from backing over the jumps this season – although, I still find it interesting.

I’m considering testing a few ideas on the AW and I will probably post these here in due course.

[Author]

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