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Would have smashed Frankel….
In the immortal words of Johnny “Mother Superior / The White Swan” Swann – “Aye, right”.
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Distance he beat a whole load of good horses in Ireland, Pinatubo deserves the two year old rating.
The better two year old rating than Frankel just means that Pinatubo was able to put up a better rating than Frankel was able to at the same stage of their careers. Had (the two year old) Frankel run in a race run so condusively as Pinatubo’s National Stakes and/or had the same mental strength/maturity… then imo Frankel would’ve been rated the better horse. But he did not have the race run or the maturity…
However, the fact Frankel was able to achieve such a level of ability/rating despite that immaturity – was what set him apart as a horse of such great potential…. Especially when taking in to account exceptional conformation and amazing stride. People could see what Frankel would become with experience… (Provided Frankel’s enthusiasm could be kept in check by a trainer second to none at nurturing a racehorse).
On the other hand, in his case the maturity enabling Pinatubo to achieve so high a rating/ability at two, together with a less than promising physique (also although good, his stride is nothing like Frankel’s) is what lessens his future ratings potential… Pinatubo far less likely to improve at three or four than Frankel was – that’s if he trains on at all.
That said… Let’s celebrate the terrific two year old Pinatubo, he deserves the plaudits. Such a good two year old he imo deserved to be Horse Of The Year 2019.
Value Is EverythingHmm. Even an argumentative sod like me can’t argue with any of that. Great post.
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I know this is the million dollar question, but everyone seems to talk about pinatubo having already filled his frame, so how likely is it that he won’t improve based on his physique. It seems more likely than not?
The question for the Guineas (yes I’m studying it already, hurry up flat season!) is looking like how much does Pinatubos form have to drop before something improves past him rather than questioning if Pinatubo will improve or even stays at the same level?
If that makes sense?!
Pinatubo already has form good enough to win an above average Guineas (“above average” meaning of ability good enough to win more than 50% of previous renewals). So if improving it’s extremely difficult to see him getting beat. However, given his conformation imo it is unlikely he’ll improve for the Guineas… *
If form level stays the same then he’s more likely to win than not. ie It is unlikely another horse shows enough improvement to beat him.
Obviously if not training-on all depends what level he’s able to run to… and how much others can improve. Even if not training on may well be good enough to win the Guineas.
* imo Even if improving for the Guineas, Pinatubo is extremely unlikely to show progressive form at three. ie Despite the two year old’s brilliance I’d personally be surprised if we’re talking about a Timeform 140+ horse by season’s end.
…If that makes sense Frenchy?!
Value Is Everything“If form level stays the same then he’s more likely to win than not.”
So is anything the odds against side of evens a good value bet then IYO?
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To answer your question TTC; taking every eventuallity in to account including chance of getting injured etc… And Godolphin’s best horses seem more suseptible to injury than most! Could be the way they’re trained (owner’s influence). However, overall YES I do believe Pinatubo is value @ odds against. Many punters don’t seem to realise just how good the form is, albeit good chance he won’t quite show that same level of ability again. If connections believe he’s trained-on is likely to start quite a lot shorter… And even more so if biggest danger (owner companion Earthlight) remains in France.
Value Is EverythingYeah it does GT. Remind me what happens from 2 to 3 with ratings. Ie he has to improve his form level to remain on the same mark right?
I don’t think he’s going to improve and I also think he’s peaked at 2 and his form will drop. That’s just my opinion. Question is how much does he have to drop before something beats him in the Guineas. If say he ran to a rating of 121 in the Guineas how much will his form have actually dropped when taking into account he’s gone from 2 to 3?
Earthlight is an intended runner based on Andre Fabre’s comments last season by the way.
To maintain the same rating/mark a horse needs to make normal physical progress/improvement from two to three which is I believe around 7 lbs, Frenchy.
Using Official Ratings:
As his rating is 128, if not training on (no physical progress) then in theory if running the same race as his supposed best at two (128 – 7 = 121) 121 is exactly the same as Magna Grecia ran to last year in winning the Guineas and 1 lb inferior to what both Saxon Warrior and Churchill achieved.Yes, Fabre said Earthlight is an intended runner. However, in my experience trainers don’t want to admit their horse is in reserve if a first string gets injured. May well run at Newmarket but then again it would not surprise me if Earthlight “has a small setback” near to the race if Pinatubo is in A1 condition.
Value Is EverythingThe Timeform weight-for-age tables say that a 2yo on 12th October (Dewhurst) over a mile would receive 18 pounds from a fully mature horse; and that a 3yo on 3rd May (2000 Gns) should receive 9 pounds from a fully mature horse. So normal improvement would be 18 – 9 = 9 pounds. That’s the theory of course; good luck to anyone who doesn’t see the horse on a daily basis in judging whether it has improved by 5 or 15 pounds or anywhere in between. Perhaps we ought to have a competition to see who can predict Pinatubo’s progress most accurately against say three horses who look as though they have run to form in next year’s 2000 Guineas. Perhaps we can persuage Ginger to be the judge, since he seems to have masses of experience of judging the form of a race.
At the end of the day it is all just guessing as to what will happen in the respective 3yr old year – all possibilities are on the table as to what can/may happen.
Was he just a very well developed mature 2yr old (way ahead of his fellow classmates) who potentially may not have made as much progression/development from 2 to 3 because he was a lot closer to the finished article as a 2 yr old?
Will a less mature/developed contemporary make more than the ‘normal’ mental/physical progress to 3 to enable them to bridge the gap and turn the form around?
Will he even train on and if he does will he be able to replicate his form of last year and will that alone be good enough this season?
If using the mile in mid October against the mile of early May, then yes MV it would be 9 lbs.
If using the 7f of the Dewhurst against the mile of the Guineas it would be 17 – 10 = 7 lbs.
Not sure which way is best tbh, if any.
Is the wfa table applicable? When working out how many pounds a horse needs to progress in order to retain its rating from two to three, should it change at all between distances?
Value Is EverythingIt’s an important point we’ve established though, in that Pinatubo needs to improve to win the Guineas. Or likely does based on previous winning ratings.
It will all depend on what lines up against him as well of course, I had it almost at a given that Earthlight will go but sadly guess you have a point there GT. Let’s hope not!
I think at this stage only 3 horses have the potential to beat him. Earthlight, Kameko and Kinross.
Not that I desperately want him beat just trying to make the Guineas antipost market look a bit more attractive!
Of course it’s guesswork to predict if he will train on but you can make a decent argument in his particular case that he won’t and that’s what makes him a fascinating horse in comparison to other top class 2 year olds of previous generations
He doesn’t need to improve to win the Guineas, he can run half a stone below his National Stakes run and win this race (128-7 = 121).
The WFA discussion above is his improvement requirement when meeting his elders, which isn’t until the Eclipse at the earliest.
Earthlight will probably turn up here as Fabre has Victor Ludorum for the French Guineas.
No Kev.
We’re just trying to use the Weight For Age scale to tell us how many pounds of normal/natural progression Pinatubo needs to find in order to run to the same mark in early May (Guineas) as he did as a two year old.ie On the WFA scale older horses (4yo+) most are thought to have already established their merit/best (unlikely to get any better). Therefore the WFA scale shows up as 10-0 whatever the month of year.
4yo+ horses are shown up in the WFA scale as 10-0 in both October and May because their merit is thought to be established… And because 3 and particuarly 2 year olds usually improve through the season:
3 year olds racing at a mile in early May are thought by Timeform 10 lbs inferior to 4 year olds of equal ability (rated the same).
2 year olds racing over 7f in October are thought by Timeform 17 lbs inferior to 4 year olds of equal ability (rated the same).Therefore, a two year old that runs in the Dewhurst must make (in theory) 17 – 10 = 7 lbs of natural progression in order to put up the same rating in the Guineas.
Has Pinatubo got the make up of a horse that will make natural (7 lbs) progression from two to three?
Less than natural progress (not be able to run to his best two year old rating)?
Or more than normal progress(better than his two year old rating)?You could use 9 lbs instead of 7 if using MV’s same distances analysis…
And to complicate things still further, there’s a difference of opinion amongst ratings enthusiasts whether Pinatubo was best in the Dewhurst or in Ireland.
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