Paul66

[ray7]

2/3

Car  2:15 Our Armagedden<br>Font 1:55 Nas Na Riogh<br>Hunt 3:05 Sh Boom

Ray

[ray7]

3/3

No Selections

Ray

[ray7]

4/3

No Selections

Ray <br>

[ray7]

5/3

Ban 3:10 Ask Me What

Ray

[Bricoman]

Hi Everyone,

I managed to download Del’s spreadsheets from his new website, so I have spent all this morning going through them with a fine toothcomb.

Taking all his data into account and adding my own to bring it up to the end of Feb – Ive noticed something quite obvious…

It will be more profitable to bet on the one’s that are quoted as Evens or better!

On average there were 19.85 bets a month (9 winning bets), making 17.48 pts and loosing 10.85 pts, giving 6.63 pts average with 3 loosing months.

Whereas, there were 18.46 odds-on bets (13 winning bets), making 6.49 pts, and loosing 5.46 pts, giving 1.03 pts average with 5 loosing months.

Anyone got any thought’s – I just thought I would open the debate.:) Hope it all makes sense!!

Regards

Bricoman

(Edited by Bricoman at 2:10 pm on Mar. 5, 2003)

[snowman]

Hi Bricoman. Are you saying there are 19.85 bets (avg) per month in total at all prices? Of which 18.46(avg) are odds on? Or is it 19.85 at evs or better and 18.46 odds on?

Sorry Bricoman to ask you to clarify.

[Bricoman]

Hi Snowman,

I’m saying 19.85 at evens or better and 18.46 at odds on. For example…

During August 2001 there were 37 bets at evens or better, 15 of these won and accrued 32.74 pts but 22 of the bets lost, so the points overall for bets placed at evens or better during August 2001 are 10.74.

Using the same format for bets placed at odds-on during August 2001 we get… 33 bets placed, 26 were winning bets and accrued 15.99 pts, 7 were losing bets so the overall points for all bets at odds-on during August 2001 are 8.99 pts.

Now taking each month at a time, the "Points Won" V "Points Lost" figures for betting evens or better are:<br>10.74, 4.88, 3.63, -1.00, 14.97, -2.18, 12.50, 8.84, -0.38, 9.19, 6.19, 10.09 & 8.73 giving an average 6.63 pts over the 13 months.

the figures for odds-on betting are:<br>8.99, 2.26, -0.83, 1.10, -5.07, 3.98, 1.51, -3.45, 5.38, 0.31, -1.05, -2.50 & 2.73 giving an average of 1.03 pts over 13 months.

I don’t know if it’s a fluke or just the way things have panned out but when the evens and better have had negative months (3 in total), the odds-on bets have had positive months, and Visa Versa. So the weakness of odds-on betting are amplified in the figures shown.

Hope this answers your question Snowman.

Regards

Bricoman

(Edited by Bricoman at 6:18 pm on Mar. 5, 2003)

[ray7]

6/3

Car 4:25 Ballystone

Ray

[snowman]

Hi Bricoman my initial thought was "So what?". I didn’t mean it in any discourteous way, just that you’ve shown that all of Del’s bets when taken together are profitable, but one section of bets is MORE profitable than another.

However I then took it a little further and perhaps you have hit on something. Suppose you had not bet on the odds on shots and put the stakes you would have invested on the even money and upward shots instead?<br>From the averages you have given there appear to be roughly the same number of odds on bets as evs or better (18.46 and 19.85 per month) So simply back the Evs or better with double the stake you would normally use and you SHOULD show an increased profit for all months for the same outlay or pretty darn close anyway.<br>You have all the figures Bricoman so over to you. It’ll keep you out of mischief for a couple of hours LOL

[Bricoman]

Hi snowman,

Thanks for taking the time to review my thinking.

I’m pretty sure that I will be trying to back evens or better – The trick is trying to predict the SP. Take today for instance, the selection was quoted as 9/2 in the Sporting Life and 6/4 in the Racing Post, but finished up at 11/10. As I have explained before, most of my bets are placed at SP, before I go to work, so if I could predict the odds I think we could be in clover.

Anyway I played around with the figures and deducted all of Year 2001 bets, so taking the last 9 months on the trot. Guess What! The evens or better average points increase from 6.63 to 7.55 pts and the odds on average decrease from 1.03 to 0.20 pts – That’s Right! A measly 0.20 pts profit each month:(

If anyone out there has a foolproof method of predicting the SP…. Pleeaassee let me know.:)

Regards

Bricoman

[snowman]

Hi Bricoman

Don’t know what sort of work you do but there are lots of bookies who will set up phone accounts out there and take bets a minute before the off.

Again don’t know what sort of bet size you’re into but Betfair will accept telephone bets providing the spend is £ 50 plus

Best wishes

[snowman]

Another thought Bricoman my local bookies will accept a bet with a minimum price proviso, it’s not ideal because as soon as that price or better  is on the show she takes it for you and puts the bet on. But at least you get the minimum Evens in this case that you are demanding.

[ray7]

7/3

Here 1:50 Navale<br>Ayr   3:10 The Rile

Paul66 I did not mean to take over from you. The first time I was about to turn off and go to bed when I noticed you had not posted so I did. Then that bit about whether we should post or not started so I just carried on. Hope you don`t mind.

Hopfully one day I will be able to put what I am learning from you all to use and post my own system on here.

Ray

(Edited by ray7 at 8:56 pm on Mar. 6, 2003)<br>

(Edited by ray7 at 8:58 pm on Mar. 6, 2003)

[paul66]

Hi Ray

I am more than happy for you to carry on this thread, I sometimes can’t do it till quite late so no worries.

Take it easy

paul<br>

[Bricoman]

Hi snowman,

Thanks for your two previous posts.

Let’s just say that I have a betting style that dosn’t suit rushing around at the last minute with two gigantic thumbs and a microscopic mobile.:biggrin:

As for the minimum price proviso, well that could work against me on the bigger price selections, and could affect overall profitability.

What I may do, is take the optimistic Sporting Life price and the Racing Post price and split the difference… How’s that sound?

So "Navale" would just about qualify at Hereford.

Regards

Bricoman

[Bricoman]

Hi Everyone,

What was that all about with Navale getting withdrawn today?

I was sat down watching the Racing Post build up to the race, and Navale was nicely placed having drifted out to Evens. Throwaline had come in to about 6/5 and the crescendo was building… Then suddenly every price went to SP and when they came back, Throwaline had zoomed to 2/5. There was no indication that Navale had been withdrawn until 10 minutes after the race.:angry:

Well my stake is still intact, but I was frustrated to say the least, because it was my only bet of the day.

Regards

Bricoman

[ray7]

8/3

Ayr 1:50 Fundamental<br>      2:25 Another General<br>Che 1:45 Indien Royal<br>       2:15 Corbreces<br>San 1:55 First Love<br>War 2:40 The Lyme Volunteer<br>       3:45 Ballybrophy

Ray

[Author]

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