- This topic has 203 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Anyway, I’ve said enough about PN in the past.One doesn’t like to repeat oneself too often
The thing about PN is that.. ‘He can’t quite believe it’ An average jockey with expectations of making a living as an average trainer.But with the patronage of PB and some good luck-and even better horses… Here he is… ‘Top of the World, Ma’ Well, what’s a guy to do?
Relax Paul,ENJOY it while it lasts.Stop mithering.
is comments regarding Gungadu were entirely reasonable and sensible from a handicapping point of view.
The idea that a trainer "knows" whether any of his horses will win is laughable . If anything they are probably too close to their horses and are less likely to be objective than the average punter.
.
I think thats a great point. A trainer can tell a horses wellbeing, whether it seems to be improving in itself, is in form etc but it can’t know whether or not it’ll win a race. Its like asking a football manager to do a fixed odds coupon they’d be no better at it than most guys in the street.
is comments regarding Gungadu were entirely reasonable and sensible from a handicapping point of view.
The idea that a trainer "knows" whether any of his horses will win is laughable . If anything they are probably too close to their horses and are less likely to be objective than the average punter.
.
I think thats a great point. A trainer can tell a horses wellbeing, whether it seems to be improving in itself, is in form etc but it can’t know whether or not it’ll win a race. Its like asking a football manager to do a fixed odds coupon they’d be no better at it than most guys in the street.
Yes, fairly obvious stuff.
If you lot of conspiracy theorists want Nicholls to say nothing in the future then carry on. DarkKnight is right trainers do not know who is going to win, they can only give an opinion like the rest of us. They do not have time to study form of their rivals either.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingShucks, with comments like that Jilly you must be a good judge too.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingNice one Ginge
There should be more people like you on here-instead of the anal feckers that populate the place.Anyway, I won’t be on here much longer,my letter of resignation has been left in the lounge.Good Luck and keep smiling(which must be hard for a ginger)
- Total Posts 17716
If you lot of conspiracy theorists want Nicholls to say nothing in the future then carry on. DarkKnight is right trainers do not know who is going to win, they can only give an opinion like the rest of us. They do not have time to study form of their rivals either.
Ginge[/quote
Ginge
Many trainers know the form book inside out, some that don’t have plenty of others to interpret for them. Similarly with placing horses to their best advantage.
Horses like Gungadu don’t win races by accident, nor do they run up sequences, like many in his stable, without the trainer knowing full well their capabilities and limitations.
Of course the trainer can’t know everything about the opposition, but PN didn’t get to be leading trainer by not knowing his own horses, or by giving the gambling owners duff information.
Next you’ll be informing us that trainers don’t bet.
As ever I think Drone is the voice of reason. It was probably harsh of me to single out Nicholls but there a plenty of people that take trainer interviews as gospel. I sort of agree with TDK that anyone that takes such comments at face value to deserve everything we get, but equally when Paul Blockley comes on before a race and gets uppity with Robert Cooper ‘Come on, you tell me what is going to beat him’ before his horse Magic Amour drifted like a barge, was slowly away and ridden with little enterprise when getting turned over then it leaves a bit of a sour taste.
That is 100% different to the situation with Paul Nicholls, David.
Trainers bet, owners bet and some of them will attempt to “put people away”. Paul Nicholls has his faults and isn’t quite the deity that people make him out to be, but he is categorically not a put away merchant imo . I think he has always just given his honest opinions in the Racing Post.
How Many people bet Denman for the Henessey after PN saying he woulde prob need the run..? I Did, i heard what PN said thought about it looked for something else that i thought would beat Denman seen the money for Snowy Morning didnt think it would win nothing else stood out then looked at prices 5/1 for a horse of this standard whatever PN said couldnt be passed up………..Just like if PN came out and said one of his was a good thing, if there was another horse in race that you really fancied would you still listen to PN…? Probably not you would stick with your original selection so even if a trainer comes out and says something it’s not Gospel
[/code]I think Paul Nicholls is a breath of fresh air. He is generally quite open with the public and seems to speak from the heart when being interviewed about his horses. Peter Chapple-Hyam is the flat trainer equivalent of him when it comes to openess with the media.
Nicholls obviously has to be mindful of his owners’ interests also, whereby he sometimes errs on the side of caution when commenting on certain horses chances in a forthcoming race; which probably explains the mixed messages we are sometimes receiving.
I wish Sir M. Stoute was so forthcoming and open about his charges.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Batman… Oddly enough i backed Denman just before the comments and Gungadu after the Saturday column. Without aftertiming I was relaxed about Denman because i thought the opposition was lacking. Gungadu comments pretty well revolved around Burntoakboy’s handicap mark and it then came down to whether you believed that that horse was to be feared
I think the RP headlines have hardly helped matters and thats as far as the self styled cynics on here probably got
Himself. Totally agree about stoute. Great trainer but dismal communicator (although am i right in believing that hes been a little more open in the last couple of seasons?)
I think Paul Nicholls is a breath of fresh air. He is generally quite open with the public and seems to speak from the heart when being interviewed about his horses. Peter Chapple-Hyam is the flat trainer equivalent of him when it comes to openess with the media.
Nicholls obviously has to be mindful of his owners’ interests also, whereby he sometimes errs on the side of caution when commenting on certain horses chances in a forthcoming race; which probably explains the mixed messages we are sometimes receiving.
I wish Sir M. Stoute was so forthcoming and open about his charges.
I agree with you H, but may be a reason Sir MS does not say anything is how punters cry foul when he / any trainer "gets it wrong".
Value Is EverythingBefore reading Paul Nicholl’s column on Saturday, you’d have done well to read James Willoughby’s on the first page. As he says:
Decision-making under uncertainty – the scientific term for disciplines like punting – is an exercise in dealing with partial information in a rational fashion. We can’t know all the variables about how a horse will run, and what we must concentrate on is our own opinion based on the facts at our disposal.
It should interest us what others think, for knowledge is the basis of intelligence. The point is, however, that it doesn’t matter what they think when you are betting. It only matters what you think, and you should act accordingly at all times.
For what it is worth, I disagree with Nicholls that Gungadu is badly handicapped.I ignore all trainer comments unless the horse is coming back from a long layoff.
The term ‘put-away merchant’ is obviously a bit extreme, but I for one am glad that Nicholls’ gives the public some sort of chance in his correspondance with the media. Clearly the owners get precedence as they pay the bills, and I’m struggling to believe that the fact that two of his big-race ‘lays’ this season have been part-owned by one of the biggest gamblers in the country is coincedence, but his approach is extremely open compared with other trainers and I can only hope brings the rest (or at least the next generation) of the top handlers up to speed.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.