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Nice one AP
Sitting here twiddling my thumbs hoping you’d post soonest
Shame about Abragante
Mmm
Still an interesting race, but probably not as interesting as it should have been
Is Granit Jack now a good thing? Not too may unexposed horses behind him in the betting..
If I owned one that got beaten by Granit Jack, I’d be pretty annoyed that he was able to get a handicap mark 9lbs lower than his hurdle rating, based purely on five runs on soft ground at Pau as a 4-y-old.
At the best, his mark can only be described as an educated guess by the handicapper and it can’t take account of any physical improvement he’s made since his last run over fences in Feb 2006.
AP
Abragante out?
Oh well, back to the drawing board.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Agreed..
Of the other horse running I always like Idole first at cheltenham and he has won first time out in 3 of 4 seasons.. Trainer form would be a worry. L’Antartique looks to have been prepped for this race and will be much more forward han most of Murphy’s and as a festival winner has to be respected. Vodka Bleu would be the other one i’d worry about..
Difficult to see past Granit Jack though. If he can translate hurdles to chase form (He looks a chaser to me) then he should win this by 5 lengths
Vodka Bleu was 2nd in this last year running off 134 where he finished 3l behind Exotic Dancer who ran off 139! He’s in this years race off 135 while also carrying 9lb less. I can’t see him NOT being involved at the business end.
It’s ironic that if he hadn’t been declared, Abragante would have got in.
DB,
There were three others declared between Granit Jack and Abragante that would have got in before him if Vodka Bleu had been left out.
However, Nicholls certainly got it right in not declaring Le Volfoni or New Little Bric.
AP
Nicholls has laid Granit Jack out for the race aka; take the hint. Yes we don’t know whether the mark he’s on is deserved etc etc. But this is a horse who when he came over to Britain, Nicholls thought was top class. Failed to sparkle initially due to stomach ulcers, but ran a cracker at the festival and looks as Aragorn says the type to do better over fences. For me, if he’s as good as Nicholls thinks, he wins comfortably off bottom weight.
Good Afternoon all
I only bet on H/caps and use a couple of systems for them. One of them selects Bob Hall. It was close between that one and Private Be.
I have a free 25 quid bet with PP so I’ve stuck it on the nose @ 9/1.As far as i can make out (guesswork really, just like official handicapper) Granit Jack needs to improve a little to take this and he could do a Exotic Dancer , but i don’t think i’d want to take current odds about him doing it though
He seems priced on potential rather than the proven
Those PU,F’s are off putting Zammo, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put in a bold show
12-1 is mmm imo, i’d want bigger, he would then make an interesting e/w proposition
As far as i can make out (guesswork really, just like official handicapper) Granit Jack needs to improve a little to take this and he could do a Exotic Dancer , but i don’t think i’d want to take current odds about him doing it though
He seems priced on potential rather than the proven
I don’t think he needs to improve, he just needs to prove he jumps fences well and if he does the race must surely be at his mercy?
This is a horse who Nicholls stated today, he fancies each way for the Queen Mother. To be anywhere near the front 3 in the Queen Mother, Granit Jack has to win tomorrow off 133 if my memory serves me right. I really think he’s a good bet even at 4/1.
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