- This topic has 48 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 12 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
5 out the last runnings of this have gone to 7 year olds.
2 out the last 6 have gone to NTD (Imperial Commander & Little Josh.)
Therefore 7 year old, NTD trained
Astracad
looks a great bet at 25/1. We know he’s fit after the Old Roan he finished a respectable second to Conquisto. However come Saturday he’s getting a bit of a swing in the weights, he made a mistake two out at Aintree which didn’t help him, hopefully if he jumps a bit better he’ll reverse the form with that one.
As I stated above NTD string are genuinely in good form around this time of year and he knows how to win this race.
Cracking E.W bet imo
Attaglance is a fast horse on his day. 33s looks a good price to me. He broke the track record in a hurdle race on good to soft at Market Rasen over 19f, before winning at the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree. I think he was carrying 11.9. Won by 9 lengths.
Interesting that J P Mac dropped out as second owner and the third owners did as well, just before its Cheltenham and Aintree wins. My first thought was that you wouldn’t expect him to drop such an enormous wally as that, but is it possible that it was to ensure the best odds they could get? JP being so high profile. Also one of the third owners has an Irish name.
On 10 stone, he’s 7 lbs out of the weights, but about the same below his highest h’cap rating.
STOP PRESS: Will you look at Nicholls’ Woolcombe Folly’s speed figure of 166 over 2 miles at Cheltenham, and his last race – first time out for a good while. 40+/1 on BF. Plus he’s got Derham’s 5 lb allowance.
From my blog:
The first barrel of Mackeson stout rolled out of Kent in 1907. The first winner of The Mackeson Gold Cup, Fortria, carried twelve stone up the hill in 1960. The race has been run every year since – never abandoned. It was last run as The Mackeson in 1995, since when it’s had a few different sponsors. It was first run as The Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2003 and when those of my generation have died or forgotten, perhaps that will be the name stamped in the memories of today’s young racing fans.
I always loved The Mackeson; it signified the start of the season proper. This year’s looks a tough one for punters. My original fancy was Rajdhani Express, and I backed him each way at 12/1. A fine big horse who could develop into a high class one, he got a beautiful ride from Sam Waley Cohen to win the Rewards 4 Racing Nov Hcap Chase at the Festival this year, although he’s gone up 15lbs since then. But he looks a weight carrying type and I think he’ll run a fine race.
But for value, I’m looking to one to defy the stats. You need to go back to Clear Cut in 1975 to find a winner of this race who was older than 9. In the past decade it’s been dominated by horses aged 6 and 7. But try as I might (and it should be easy as he is not a horse I’ve ever followed or backed), I cannot get away from the thought that the 10-year-old Woolcombe Folly represents tremendous each way value at 33/1 tomorrow.
He’s thoroughly exposed – rarely a favoured factor in these types of races – but in all we’ve learned about him, we know for sure that he’s admirably reliable and consistent, has oodles of Cheltenham experience (2 wins and a 2nd from 7 runs), a good speed figure, the yard’s in form, one of the best 5lb claimers rides (Harry Derham) and he was running a cracker over this trip last time here, within a length of the lead when a clumsy jump at the last killed his chances. His amateur rider (Mr Biddick) went up his neck as the horse landed awkwardly, and he lost all chance, but I was impressed with the way he kept on up the hill to be beaten about 6 lengths.
Derham’s claim means Woolcombe Folly will carry just 10.8 tomorrow and that might be enough to let him get his head in front after 18 months without a victory. Bar that final fence blunder in his last run, he’d have been placed in all 5 races this season (he raced through the summer), and he must have solid each way claims at 33s with Bet 365. For those who want to take the win-only route, he can currently be backed on Betfair at 44.
I still expect Rajdhani Express to run a huge race, and I’ll be having savers too on Conquisto and Battle Group. I was very taken with the enthusiasm shown by Conquisto when winning at Aintree last time. He loved the job, jumped well and won with a fair bit in hand. He too is most consistent, with form figures of 31122131-21. He’s on the small side and has to carry 11.3, although he almost won under 11.12 at Haydock in May. I have a slight reservation in that this will be his first Cheltenham visit, but there is no reason he shouldn’t take to the track. He can be backed at 25/1 with Coral.
Battle Group is still not trusted by punters. He was branded ‘quirky’ in his time with David Pipe. But he transferred to the yard of Kevin Bishop last year (the assistant trainer there was Johnny Farrelly who is now listed as Battle Group’s trainer). On the Thursday of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, BG hacked up in a handicap hurdle, then came out again on Saturday and did exactly the same in a steeplechase. Back over hurdles 5 weeks later, he carried 11.13 to victory over 19 opponents. He’s dual purpose, mixing hurdling and chasing, and, very unusually, is officially rated the same under both codes at 150. On the downside he’s 0 from 7 at Cheltenham (3 from 5 at Aintree) and there’s no way of knowing if he’ll revert to his old quirky ways. But at the price of 25/1 with Stan James (he’s as low as 14s with others) I’m willing to pay to find out. His best performances have been at 3 miles or so, but a fast run 20f at Cheltenham shouldn’t trouble him if he is in the same form as when we last saw him.
So, there you go…valuewise, from the top…
Woolcombe Folly 33/1
Conquisto 25/1
Battle Group 25/1
Rajdhani Express 11/1
Good luck to you and to all horses and jockeys
From my blog:
The first barrel of Mackeson stout rolled out of Kent in 1907. The first winner of The Mackeson Gold Cup, Fortria, carried twelve stone up the hill in 1960. The race has been run every year since – never abandoned. It was last run as The Mackeson in 1995, since when it’s had a few different sponsors. It was first run as The Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2003 and when those of my generation have died or forgotten, perhaps that will be the name stamped in the memories of today’s young racing fans.
I always loved The Mackeson; it signified the start of the season proper. This year’s looks a tough one for punters. My original fancy was Rajdhani Express, and I backed him each way at 12/1. A fine big horse who could develop into a high class one, he got a beautiful ride from Sam Waley Cohen to win the Rewards 4 Racing Nov Hcap Chase at the Festival this year, although he’s gone up 15lbs since then. But he looks a weight carrying type and I think he’ll run a fine race.
But for value, I’m looking to one to defy the stats. You need to go back to Clear Cut in 1975 to find a winner of this race who was older than 9. In the past decade it’s been dominated by horses aged 6 and 7. But try as I might (and it should be easy as he is not a horse I’ve ever followed or backed), I cannot get away from the thought that the 10-year-old Woolcombe Folly represents tremendous each way value at 33/1 tomorrow.
He’s thoroughly exposed – rarely a favoured factor in these types of races – but in all we’ve learned about him, we know for sure that he’s admirably reliable and consistent, has oodles of Cheltenham experience (2 wins and a 2nd from 7 runs), a good speed figure, the yard’s in form, one of the best 5lb claimers rides (Harry Derham) and he was running a cracker over this trip last time here, within a length of the lead when a clumsy jump at the last killed his chances. His amateur rider (Mr Biddick) went up his neck as the horse landed awkwardly, and he lost all chance, but I was impressed with the way he kept on up the hill to be beaten about 6 lengths.
Derham’s claim means Woolcombe Folly will carry just 10.8 tomorrow and that might be enough to let him get his head in front after 18 months without a victory. Bar that final fence blunder in his last run, he’d have been placed in all 5 races this season (he raced through the summer), and he must have solid each way claims at 33s with Bet 365. For those who want to take the win-only route, he can currently be backed on Betfair at 44.
I still expect Rajdhani Express to run a huge race, and I’ll be having savers too on Conquisto and Battle Group. I was very taken with the enthusiasm shown by Conquisto when winning at Aintree last time. He loved the job, jumped well and won with a fair bit in hand. He too is most consistent, with form figures of 31122131-21. He’s on the small side and has to carry 11.3, although he almost won under 11.12 at Haydock in May. I have a slight reservation in that this will be his first Cheltenham visit, but there is no reason he shouldn’t take to the track. He can be backed at 25/1 with Coral.
Battle Group is still not trusted by punters. He was branded ‘quirky’ in his time with David Pipe. But he transferred to the yard of Kevin Bishop last year (the assistant trainer there was Johnny Farrelly who is now listed as Battle Group’s trainer). On the Thursday of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, BG hacked up in a handicap hurdle, then came out again on Saturday and did exactly the same in a steeplechase. Back over hurdles 5 weeks later, he carried 11.13 to victory over 19 opponents. He’s dual purpose, mixing hurdling and chasing, and, very unusually, is officially rated the same under both codes at 150. On the downside he’s 0 from 7 at Cheltenham (3 from 5 at Aintree) and there’s no way of knowing if he’ll revert to his old quirky ways. But at the price of 25/1 with Stan James (he’s as low as 14s with others) I’m willing to pay to find out. His best performances have been at 3 miles or so, but a fast run 20f at Cheltenham shouldn’t trouble him if he is in the same form as when we last saw him.
So, there you go…valuewise, from the top…
Woolcombe Folly 33/1
Conquisto 25/1
Battle Group 25/1
Rajdhani Express 11/1
Good luck to you and to all horses and jockeys
Very good summary.
I’ve laid my Ballynagour bet off. Still fancy it’s chances but would have been silly not to.
If Nadiya De La Vega had another jockey on then i think it would have a chance but Tinkler has a woeful Cheltenham record, made worse when considering he rides for Henderson ( that said, the last time i mentioned similar stats he won the Betfred )
Also, many of Henderson’s horses seem to be needing the run, unusual for him as they usually have an excellent record first time out. For that reason i think Finian’s Rainbow is also opposable and might be one for the December equivalent.I’m backing Tap Night this afternoon. Ran several times last season as a young horse on testing ground and i think he’d gone over the top by the time Aintree and Ayr came round. Excused the run last time because this was surely the target and on Good ground looks a very solid each way bet to me, with more potential for improvement than some of his rivals.
Some odd selections in this thread!
Surely you don’t want an exposed long-time handicapper in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.Unfortunately, everyone is wise to the JP riding arrangements this time. Unlike when Alfie Sherrin won at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, people seem to realise that McCoy has only chosen Tap Night because Colour Squadron is carrying a featherweight. No 33-1 scoops this time.
John’s Spirit seems to be on-the-up, though. I like horses who win pushed clear in the lead-up to a big handicap. He needed to win well at the last meeting to get in here, suggesting that this is a stable plot.
So,
John’s Spirit
and
Colour Squadron
are my two. Good luck all!
Ballynagour drifting quite alarmingly. 9/1 is now a very backable price.
I think his chances are very good PC. Both Betfred and Totesport were 7/1 when many other bookies were 8s, I think both decided to test the waters and pushed him out to 9/1, they didn’t keep that offer on for long, and owing to the fact that they both dropped to 7/1 at exactly the same time (10.37) would suggest that someone or some group had a decent punt, perhaps putting on as much as both bookmakers would permit, or it could be coincidence but it would be a big coincidence. They are back with the rest of the market now at 8s.
I had Finian’s Rainbow at 14/1 Nadiya De La Vega 20/1 and Tap Night 25/1 (the last 2 e/w) all ante post. I have added Ballynapour at 8/1 as I realised that I had skipped over him too quickly in my previous studying of the race. I think he has possibly the best chance of my four, although I’m hoping Finian’s Rainbow has been dropped enough by the handicapper for him to get his head in front, he would be the best result for me as I’ve had a decent punt on him.
It’s the type of race that I could end up with nothing even placed, but it is still a mouth watering prospect
Best of luck to my punters in arms.
I’ll stick with the 3 I’ve fancied for a good while now, but sort of know my fate already, far too competitive to be really confident.
Astracad
Woolcombe Folly
Rajdhani ExpressSome odd selections in this thread!
Surely you don’t want an exposed long-time handicapper in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.Unfortunately, everyone is wise to the JP riding arrangements this time. Unlike when Alfie Sherrin won at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, people seem to realise that McCoy has only chosen Tap Night because Colour Squadron is carrying a featherweight. No 33-1 scoops this time.
John’s Spirit seems to be on-the-up, though. I like horses who win pushed clear in the lead-up to a big handicap. He needed to win well at the last meeting to get in here, suggesting that this is a stable plot.
So,
John’s Spirit
and
Colour Squadron
are my two. Good luck all!
Nice call TYF.
Some odd selections in this thread!
Surely you don’t want an exposed long-time handicapper in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.Unfortunately, everyone is wise to the JP riding arrangements this time. Unlike when Alfie Sherrin won at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, people seem to realise that McCoy has only chosen Tap Night because Colour Squadron is carrying a featherweight. No 33-1 scoops this time.
John’s Spirit seems to be on-the-up, though. I like horses who win pushed clear in the lead-up to a big handicap. He needed to win well at the last meeting to get in here, suggesting that this is a stable plot.
So,
John’s Spirit
and
Colour Squadron
are my two. Good luck all!
Well done TYF, picking first and second from a minefield like the Paddy Power is top notch.
Did you consider the exacta, it paid over £100. Great call regardless
Great call, TYF. You were unlucky not to get the bigger priced one in front.
Could not have backed the winner with stolen money, given how he jumped last time, but my selections ran very poorly, so I think I’ll get my coat!
Great call, TYF. You were unlucky not to get the bigger priced one in front.
Could not have backed the winner with stolen money, given how he jumped last time, but my selections ran very poorly, so I think I’ll get my coat!
Great call by TYF indeed.
I didn’t think Rajdhani Express was that bad Joe. There is still ample time for him. His stablemate Finian’s Rainbow, on the other hand, looked a shadow of his former self. Some poor efforts by some of the fancied ones today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Was a cracking race and well done to Jonjo who had obviously plotted this one up.
My main bet Colour Squadron might have been unlucky as he was clearly hampered by Easter Meteor’s fall but actually he wasn’t fluent himself. Finished strongly though and would John’s Spirit have pulled out more if he’d got to him.
Also did Woolcombe Folly ew but wasn’t seen, and Attaglance unfortunately small stakes to win. He finished well and can pick up a nice prize over 3m if campaigned sensibly?
I wonder where Easter Meteor would have finished…
Thanks everyone! I have been in shocking form lately, so this is a very nice turnaround.
I would love to say I nailed the exacta, but I am a strictly win-only punter. Still had a good day though.
It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does to the first three with the old Boylesports in mind. Unless something comes out of the woodwork before then, I could see these (and Easter Meteor) in the frame again.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.